Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON LINGERING SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD HAS
ADVECTED LOWER 60S DEW POINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 17Z LAPS
SHOWING 2000-2500 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ONE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH central WISCONSIN...WITH ANOTHER BAND OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

22.12Z MODELS OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 500MB
CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE BY AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS INTO ONTARIO ON
TUESDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 22.15Z HRRR HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION QUITE WELL.
THIS SHOWS SECOND CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 00Z AND THEN THROUGH THE AREA BY 03Z. THUS HAVE
ADDED HIGHER END PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAIN WIND SHIFT DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND THUS CONTINUED LOWER END PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. 1000MB-850MB LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8C PER
KILOMETER WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OF BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000
J/KG. THUS WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATING PRECIPITATION PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 FOR WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH THE HIGHER END
PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
DID ADD SOME TINING TO THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY LOOK TO DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED.
EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM DID NOT
SPEND A LOT OF TIME WITH THE DETAILS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET...BUT COOL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 22.12Z GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION IN
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REA...WHILE ECMWF REMAINS DRY MOST OF
THE DAY. WENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WOULD BRING LOWER END
PROBABILITIES INTO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THUS WENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE KRST TAF SITE IN THE NEXT
2 HOURS AFTER WHICH VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
AT KLSE THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS. BY LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND LOW THAT WILL BE LOCATED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SWEEP
SOME MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AREA AFTER 10Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TO
18Z MONDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM... RABERDING
AVIATION.......... BAUMGARDT/JLR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-231100-
ALLAMAKEE-CHICKASAW-CLAYTON-DODGE-FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOUSTON-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 35 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH UNSTABLE AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN BY LATER
AFTERNOON...ENDING THE THREAT.

WIND PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE. THE THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE 1 TO 4 PM WINDOW.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231100-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLARK-CRAWFORD-GRANT-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-MONROE-
RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ATMOSPHERE WAS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
MORE HUMID AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PRESS
EAST. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT 3 PM. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER WEST IN MINNESOTA AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT...AND MOVE INTO WISCONSIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PROVIDING A SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
STORMS PUSH INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN.

WIND PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE. THE THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

BAUMGARDT

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