Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

554 
WWUS43 KAPX 191511
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1011 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...ONE STORM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SETS ITS EYES ON NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...

.AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY WITH WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DIMINISHING AS A
RESULT. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MIZ008-191615-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110219T1500Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
1011 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

$$

MIZ020>036-041-042-192300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1011 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED 
   VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST 
   DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY 
   EVENING THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. 

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY 
   MONDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 
   SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY 
   IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

&&

$$

LAWRENCE

541 
WWUS43 KAPX 192052
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...ANOTHER STORM SETS ITS EYES ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MIZ020>036-041-042-201000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
352 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED 
   VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

 * GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
   DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
   EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
   MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH OF
   M-72. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 
   SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY 
   IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

&&

$$

LAWRENCE

245 
WWUS43 KAPX 200340
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1040 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...ANOTHER STORM SETS ITS EYES ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT THEN
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MIZ020>036-041-042-201100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1040 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED 
   VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

 * GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW IS EXPECTED SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
   DAY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
   HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
   HOURS ON MONDAY.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
   MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH OF
   M-72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 
   SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY 
   IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. 

&&

$$

ADAM

418 
WWUS43 KAPX 200816
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
316 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...

.LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-72.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS.

MIZ020-025>036-041-042-201715-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0003.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
316 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

IMPACTS...

 * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED 
   VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

 * NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING SNOW.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL OCCUR
   SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY
   MORNING.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
   WARNING AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH
   OF M-72.
 
 * SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
   SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
   WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

MIZ021>024-201715-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0007.110220T1700Z-110221T1200Z/
ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
316 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IMPACTS...

 * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO REDUCED 
   VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. 

 * NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING SNOW.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A
   PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.   

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
   WIND IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL
   CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ARNOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 430 PM/

NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL FALL INTO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIME THIS
EVENING AS CONDITIONS SET UP WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...COLD AIR AND
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BIG WATERS. IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...HOWEVER...ENDING ON SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. SAID STORM WILL BRING
SNOWFALL BACK TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN MID AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

BERGER

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1020 PM/...TONIGHT

983 MB SFC LOW WORKING INTO QUEBEC AND RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN. AS ANTICIPATED...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
COMING THROUGH THE REGION NOW AND HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS
THIS EVENING WITH MANY STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS THROUGH THE 40 MPH
RANGE AT TIMES. NO WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS NOTED (SUSTAINED 40
MPH OR GUSTS TO 58 MPH) ALTHOUGH WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE GIVEN OBS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST. SO...WIND ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE WORKING OUT FOR THE MOST
PART.

AS FAR AS LAKE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONCERNED...POCKET OF COLDEST AIR
ALOFT NOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...850 MB TEMPS AS COLD
AS -20C OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SO NO SURPRISE THAT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL EVENING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURE/
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE A WEDGE OF FAIRLY DRY
REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE LOWER LAKES. AS A RESULT...LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WERE SLOW TO GET
GOING THIS EVENING...BUT FINALLY STARTING TO PICK UP AS COLDEST AIR
AND BETTER MOISTURE SAGS DOWN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

REST OF TONIGHT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY WILL
STAND GIVEN THE ONGOING CONDITIONS THERE. ALSO...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
JUST STARTING TO RAMP UP OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE ALONE AS WELL FOR THE COMBINATION
OF ADVISORY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT MACKINAC
COUNTY DOWN INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT WHERE BANDS OF ARGUABLY SOME OF
THE BETTER LAKE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN/WILL BE SAGGING THROUGH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD MACKINAC COUNTY AND THE
TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AS A RESULT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY LATE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLDEST STARTS TO GET SHOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND DRY AIR NOSES
IN FROM THE SOUTH/WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 430 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND THE DETAILS OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY THEN POPS LATE NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS THE THEME.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...A BIT OF
LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY ON (MEAN 850-700 MB RH ABOUT 60 PERCENT)
UNDER A NNW FLOW WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS (WHITEFISH POINT
AND PARADISE AREAS) AND SCATTERED POPS OVER FAR NORTHWEST LOWER IN
THE MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS LATE OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY THEN
CONTINUE ON INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERED ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF NOT WANTING TO ADD CONFUSION TO ONGOING HEADLINES AND
THE FACT THAT ITS PRIMARILY A LATE FOURTH PERIOD AND FIFTH PERIOD
EVENT...OPTED TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND DEFER TO THE MIDSHIFT ON
MAKING THIS CALL. IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA COULD RECEIVE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...THE HEAVIEST IS LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

MONDAY...LINGERING POPS FROM OUTGOING STORM SYSTEM TO START THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUIET DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS MODELS VARY ON EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH THURSDAY. MORE ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF THE PLAINS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY. HIGHS MODERATING FROM THE 20S TUESDAY
INTO MAINLY THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY (IT MAY END UP BEING
COLDER ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT AS ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE LURKING TO OUR NORTHWEST).

SULLIVAN

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 430 PM/

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN SLOWLY DECREASE ALONG NW LOWER MI COAST TOWARD MORNING AND
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1233 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS PRIMARY NEAR TERM CONCERNS...
BOTH BOTH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PULLS EAST AND LOSES ITS
GRIP ON THE REGION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BY
SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME IFR SHSN HAVE RECENTLY IMPACTED
APN...EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO BE MVFR...AND LIKELY CONFINED TO PLN/TVC AS DOMINANT
SNOWBAND NOW SITS BETWEEN EACH OF THE TAF SITES. ANY SHSN SHOULD
TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM
MID/LATE MORNING SATURDAY THORUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES
WILL ALSO SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH 15G25KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING...TO 10 KTS OR LESS.

ARNOTT/TBA

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ015>019-021>023-027-028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-024-025-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ008.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1111 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
191200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1111 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WIND
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN IN
CHIPPEWA COUNTY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SEE THE LATEST GALE WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN SATURDAY. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS
LATE THIS WEEKEND...MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE PASS ON WIND AND SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAWRENCE/AJS/ADAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E LUZERNE             44.62N 84.23W
02/18/2011  M47 MPH          OSCODA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LOCKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1014 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE THOMPSONS HARBOR  45.37N 83.45W
02/18/2011  M58 MPH          LHZ348             MI   C-MAN STATION

            MEASURED AT PRESQUE ISLE LIGHTHOUSE

&&

LOCKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
02/18/2011  M55.00 MPH       LEELANAU           MI   C-MAN STATION

            MEASURED AT GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHTHOUSE

0352 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MACKINAC ISLAND     45.84N 84.64W
02/18/2011  M51.00 MPH       LHZ345             MI   MESONET

            MEASURED ON SOUTH END

0618 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NNE DETOUR VILLAGE      45.99N 83.90W
02/18/2011  M49.00 MPH       LSZ322             MI   C-MAN STATION

1226 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GLEN ARBOR              44.90N 86.00W
02/18/2011  M49.00 MPH       LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

            SLEEPING BEAR BAY

0148 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE SEUL CHOIX POINT   45.98N 85.85W
02/18/2011  M45.00 MPH       MACKINAC           MI   C-MAN STATION

0157 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WEST BRANCH             44.28N 84.24W
02/18/2011  M49.00 MPH       OGEMAW             MI   MESONET

0228 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 W ALPENA              45.07N 83.56W
02/18/2011  M47.00 MPH       ALPENA             MI   ASOS

            ALPENA COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT

0232 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E HURON BEACH         45.49N 84.05W
02/18/2011  M59.00 MPH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   MESONET

            HAMMOND BAY

0238 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW PELLSTON          45.59N 84.80W
02/18/2011  M51.00 MPH       EMMET              MI   ASOS

            PELLSTON REGIONAL AIRPORT

0256 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW OSCODA             44.46N 83.39W
02/18/2011  M54.00 MPH       IOSCO              MI   AWOS

            OSCODA-WURTHSMITH AIRPORT

0310 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 E AU GRES             44.04N 83.53W
02/18/2011  M62.00 MPH       LHZ421             MI   C-MAN STATION

            MEASURED AT GRAVELLY SHOALS LIGHT

0315 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE MANISTEE          44.93N 84.97W
02/18/2011  M48.00 MPH       ANTRIM             MI   AWOS

            MANISTEE COUNTY-BLACKER AIRPORT

0319 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NE HOUGHTON LAKE      44.37N 84.66W
02/18/2011  M47.00 MPH       ROSCOMMON          MI   ASOS

            ROSCOMMON COUNTY AIRPORT

0323 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LELAND                  45.02N 85.77W
02/18/2011  M48.00 MPH       LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

0325 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE ELLSWORTH         45.18N 85.21W
02/18/2011  M49.00 MPH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0342 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E BARBEAU             46.28N 84.20W
02/18/2011  M48.00 MPH       LSZ322             MI   C-MAN STATION

0354 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W CHEBOYGAN           45.64N 84.51W
02/18/2011  M45.00 MPH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   AWOS

            CHEBOYGAN COUNTY AIRPORT

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST IRONTON                 45.26N 85.20W
02/18/2011  M52.00 MPH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   MESONET

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA            45.05N 83.45W
02/18/2011  M52.00 MPH       ALPENA             MI   C-MAN STATION

            ALPENA HARBOR LIGHT

0427 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ROGERS CITY             45.42N 83.81W
02/18/2011  M49.00 MPH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   MESONET

            ROGERS CITY MARINA

0452 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WHITEFISH POINT         46.75N 84.98W
02/18/2011  M49.00 MPH       CHIPPEWA           MI   C-MAN STATION

            GUST OF EQUAL MAGNITUDE ALSO OCCURRED AT 652 PM

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GAYLORD            45.02N 84.69W
02/18/2011  M52.00 MPH       OTSEGO             MI   ASOS

            GAYLORD REGIONAL AIRPORT

0515 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHARLEVOIX              45.32N 85.26W
02/18/2011  M48.00 MPH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   AWOS

            CHARLEVOIX MUNICIPAL AIRPORT

0552 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST TAWAS POINT STATE PARK  44.25N 83.45W
02/18/2011  M46.00 MPH       IOSCO              MI   C-MAN STATION

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAW CITY           45.78N 84.73W
02/18/2011  M68.00 MPH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

            TIME UNKNOWN

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST MIO                     44.66N 84.13W
02/18/2011  M45.00 MPH       OSCODA             MI   PARK/FOREST SRVC

0631 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PETOSKEY                45.38N 84.96W
02/18/2011  M45.00 MPH       EMMET              MI   MESONET

0652 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE THOMPSONS HARBOR  45.37N 83.45W
02/18/2011  M64.00 MPH       LHZ348             MI   C-MAN STATION

            PRESQUE ISLE LIGHTHOUSE

0708 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ATLANTA                 45.00N 84.15W
02/18/2011  M46.00 MPH       MONTMORENCY        MI   PARK/FOREST SRVC

0752 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N HARRISVILLE         44.71N 83.30W
02/18/2011  M48.00 MPH       ALCONA             MI   C-MAN STATION

            STURGEON POINT LIGHT

0906 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY       45.78N 84.72W
02/18/2011  M51.00 MPH       LHZ345             MI   C-MAN STATION

0952 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE CHEBOYGAN         45.66N 84.46W
02/18/2011  M46.00 MPH       CHEBOYGAN          MI   C-MAN STATION

            CHEBOYGAN CRIB LIGHTHOUSE

0955 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE KINROSS            46.26N 84.47W
02/18/2011  M46.00 MPH       CHIPPEWA           MI   AWOS

            CHIPPEWA COUNTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

1012 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E SAULT STE. MARIE    46.49N 84.30W
02/18/2011  M47.00 MPH       LSZ322             MI   C-MAN STATION

1015 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW ROGERS CITY       45.41N 83.81W
02/18/2011  M45.00 MPH       PRESQUE ISLE       MI   AWOS

            PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY AIRPORT

1024 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW BAY MILLS         46.49N 84.63W
02/18/2011  M61.00 MPH       LSZ322             MI   C-MAN STATION

            POINT IROQUOIS

1024 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE  46.50N 84.37W
02/18/2011  M56.00 MPH       LSZ322             MI   C-MAN STATION

            SOUTHWEST PIER

1036 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N MUNUSCONG           46.26N 84.19W
02/18/2011  M52.00 MPH       CHIPPEWA           MI   C-MAN STATION

1052 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW SAULT STE. MARIE   45.72N 85.53W
02/18/2011  M52.00 MPH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   ASOS

            SANDERSON FIELD

&&
EARLY MORNING WINDS OCCURRED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...THESE WINDS OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT PASSED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
102 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE THOMPSONS HARBOR  45.37N 83.45W
02/18/2011  M71 MPH          LHZ348             MI   C-MAN STATION

            PRESQUE ISLE LIGHTHOUSE. WIND EQUIPMENT 111 FT ABOVE THE
            SURFACE.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
203 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W OSSINEKE            44.91N 83.45W
02/19/2011  M63 MPH          ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JH