Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Gaylord, MI

740 
WHUS73 KAPX 240232
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1032 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

LHZ347-LSZ321-322-241045-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111024T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1032 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-241045-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111024T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1032 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

222 
WHUS73 KAPX 240843
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
443 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

LHZ348-349-241600-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
443 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-241600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
443 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-241600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
443 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-241600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111024T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
443 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

079 
WHUS73 KAPX 241450
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1050 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

LMZ341-242100-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111024T2100Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1050 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-242100-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
1050 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-242100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111024T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1050 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-242100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1050 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347>349-242100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1050 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

039 
WHUS73 KAPX 242014
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

LMZ323-341-344>346-242115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111024T2100Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ346-242115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ342-250300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-250300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347>349-250300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-LSZ322-250300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
414 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

702 
WHUS73 KAPX 250222
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

LHZ345-LMZ342-LSZ322-250330-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347>349-250330-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0900Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LSZ321-250900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T0900Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1022 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

295 
WHUS73 KAPX 250803
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

LHZ349-251615-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.111025T2000Z-111027T0800Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EDT THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-251615-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.111025T2000Z-111026T0800Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-251615-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.111026T0300Z-111027T0800Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-251615-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.111025T0900Z-111026T2000Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-251500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T1500Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

HALBLAUB

786 
WHUS73 KAPX 251503
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1103 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

LSZ321-251615-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111025T1500Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1103 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

LHZ347-252315-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1103 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-252315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1103 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-252315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.111025T1503Z-111026T2200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1103 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-252315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.111025T1503Z-111026T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1103 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

393 
WHUS73 KAPX 251944
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

LMZ344>346-260345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
344 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-260345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
344 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-260345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
344 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-260345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
344 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

882 
WHUS73 KAPX 260253
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1053 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

LMZ344>346-261100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1053 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-261100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1053 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-261100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1053 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-261100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1053 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

347 
WHUS73 KAPX 260801
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

LMZ323-342-260915-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
401 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347-260915-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
401 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ344>346-261500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T1500Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
401 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-261600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
401 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

HALBLAUB

276 
WHUS73 KAPX 261429
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

LHZ348-349-262200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-111026T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0099.111026T1500Z-111026T2200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-261530-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0097.000000T0000Z-111026T1500Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
128 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND POSSIBLY SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HALBLAUB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1018 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

GOING FCST IN RATHER DECENT SHAPE HEADING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY BEING PESKY STRATUS/FOG AS WELL AS HIGH
TEMPS...WITH ISSUES INTO THE AFTERNOON REVOLVING AROUND PRECIP
ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES NORTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER
THE FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING DRAPED THROUGHOUT THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE UPSTREAM PRESSURE PATTERN REVEALS
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH TRAILING COOL FRONT
DOWN THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 12Z.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS OF THE DAY SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR...AND FROM THE TIP OF THE MITT ON NORTH...IN THE VICINITY
OF WEAKISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED INTO THAT AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING (SMALL BOOST IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE?). ALL THE WHILE...
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS ADVANCING INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN...JUST IN ADVANCE OF SAID COLD FRONT MENTIONED
ABOVE.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...WILL HAVE TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER UP SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH 16-18Z OR SO TIP OF THE MITT ON NORTH AS TIME OF YEAR AND
COVERAGE OF STRATUS WITHIN RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME ARGUE THAT THINGS
MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT. SOUTH OF THAT...LOOKING AT JUST A BEAUTIFUL
LATE OCTOBER DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS WARMING STEADILY WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
ALREADY RAISED FCST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...BASED SOLELY ON
YESTERDAY'S WARM READINGS AND FURTHER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
EXPECTED TODAY.

INTO THE AFTN...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE MAKE A RUN TOWARD
THE AREA. GIVEN RATHER DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AND
MAJORITY OF BOTH LOW LEVEL (FRONTAL) AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS
WELL WEST OF THE AREA...LIKE EARLIER CALL TO PUSH BACK ARRIVAL TIME
OF PRECIP UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTN (SAY 22Z OR SO). ALL THE
WHILE...FORESEE PLENTY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
ACROSS WISCONSIN/EASTERN MINNESOTA BENEATH DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT
AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS ON THE HEELS OF 140 KNOT JET SURGING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
(850-400MB...SEE 12Z KINL RAOB) SHOULD FORCE SOME THUNDER...AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME HAIL AS STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO GET ORGANIZED A BIT
WITHIN ZONE OF 30 KNOTS DEEP SHEAR. THIS IS ALL MENTIONED AS
REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY TO TREK EAST INTO THE
EVENING...AFFECTING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDER. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE
ADDING A MENTION BACK IN...BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE'LL SEE SOME
THUNDER...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS INTO THE
EVENING.

LAWRENCE

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

TONIGHT...UPPER JET/MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/SFC FRONT AND RESULTING
PULSE OF QG-UPWARD FORCING EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION. A
THIN CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS (AND SOME THUNDER) ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG
THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA. BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRECIP WILL FURTHER EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
JET GETS MORE INVOLVED. MAY END UP A DECENT LITTLE RAIN EVENT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST COORDINATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD BEFORE
NUDGING POPS ANY HIGHER.

THUNDER CHANCES: ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT
WITHIN NARROW THETA-E AXIS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. BUT RECENT
GUIDANCE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC IN ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AND IN KEEPING WITH THE
SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK (NO THUNDER THIS FAR NORTH)...HAVE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET SUPPORT/QG FORCING EXPECTED TO
EXIT RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT GIVEN HOW QUICKLY WE DRY OUT
ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE VERY MARGINAL OVER LAKE INSTABILITY...WILL OPT
FOR A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON ANOTHER WAVE
FORECAST TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME. WITH THIS IMPULSE...LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SPIN UP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES (KANSAS/NEBRASKA AREA) WHICH THEN
TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT
STILL DEBATE OVER THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE FURTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER
AND HEAVIEST QPF THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. NAM/GFS ARE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH BOTH WITH THE LOW AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL. TEND TO BELIEVE A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...BUT WILL SEE. NOT A HUGE FORECAST
PROBLEM SINCE WERE NOT TALKING ABOUT A WINTER STORM JUST YET (WHERE
THE TRACK IS EVERYTHING). AT THIS POINT WILL SIMPLY MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REFINE
THINGS AS WE GO ALONG.

ADAM

THE REST OF THE FCST WED-SAT:

AS THE FIRST SHRTWV TROF AFFECTS THE GTLKS TUE...ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF
WILL DROP INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FORMING A LARGE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROF THAT WILL PROGRESS EWD THRU FRI. IT'S THIS SECOND PIECE
OF ENERGY THAT IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST. WE
KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE FIRST SHRTWV TROF WILL FORCE THE FRONT SWD IN
ITS WAKE. WE ALSO KNOW THAT THE TRAILING TROF WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS AGAIN ON THE POLAR FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WHERE AND
WHEN? AND DOES THE FRONT DROP FAR ENUF S TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
THREATS S OF THE FCST AREA?

GIVEN THAT THE POLAR FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS TRAVERSING THE FRONT. THIS
IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY. EVENTUALLY...BELIEVE A
MDT INTENSITY LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE ERN USA. IT'S TOO EARLY TO RULE
OUT THE NRN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD AFFECTING NRN MI...WITH ANY OF
THESE POTENTIAL LOWS. THIS IS SEEN VIA THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
PLOTS OF .10" 12HR QPF.

BIG PICTURE: UPPER TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD THRU FRI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THEREAFTER UNCERTAIN BUT SOME RELENTING APPEARS PROBABLE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERLAKE INSTABILITY PREVAILS THROUGHOUT. FCST
WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. OVERALL...COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONALLY WET FROM NE LOWER INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

WED-THU: BL FLOW WILL AVERAGE NE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH LAKE EFFECT
SHWRS/DRZL IN MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT...FCST GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW ON CLOUDS.
EVEN 00Z/23 MEX GUIDANCE IS OVERCAST. COORDINATED WITH MQT/LOT/GRR/
DTX AND RAISED CLOUDS TO LOW-END M/CLOUDY THRU SAT MRNG THEN
HIGH-END P/CLOUDY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FRI-SAT: SFC HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND LAKE EFFECT COULD DEVOLVE INTO LAND BREEZES. THIS COULD OPEN THE
DOOR FOR WATERSPOUTS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WITH SFC LOW
ORGANIZING SE OF THE GTLKS...SOME CYCLONIC NE FLOW COULD REMAIN OVER
PART OF THE FCST AREA.

HALBLAUB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 426 AM/

SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WIND AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THROUGH TODAY. BUT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS. WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR MONDAY.

ADAM

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 128 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 8-10KFT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) CROSS ALL TERMINAL
SITES INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH WITH
CEILINGS/VISBYS HOLDING MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND PLN
WHERE LAKE MICHIGAN LOW STRATUS PLUME MAY LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS
LATER TONIGHT FOR A TIME. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING A BIT
GUSTY (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS) FROM ABOUT SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY
TOMORROW...AS SKIES CLEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LAWRENCE

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
241200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF M-32. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LAWRENCE