Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Gaylord, MI

727 
WHUS73 KAPX 220208
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

LHZ349-LMZ323-344>346-221015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.110322T2200Z-110324T0300Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1008 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO
11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO
11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>348-LMZ341-342-221015-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0006.110322T2200Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1008 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

569 
WHUS73 KAPX 220814
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
414 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

LHZ349-LMZ323-344>346-221615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.110322T2200Z-110324T0300Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
414 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>348-LMZ341-342-221615-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0006.110322T2200Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
414 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

147 
WHUS73 KAPX 221506
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1106 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

LHZ345>348-LMZ341-342-222315-
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0006.110322T2200Z-110324T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.110323T0200Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1106 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-222315-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.110323T0200Z-110324T0300Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1106 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ349-LMZ323-344>346-222315-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.110323T0200Z-110324T0300Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1106 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

705 
WHUS73 KAPX 221959
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-230400-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.110323T0200Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
359 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

142 
WHUS73 KAPX 230232
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-230900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

096 
WHUS73 KAPX 230642
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
242 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

LHZ345>347-LMZ341-342-231445-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0046.110323T0642Z-110323T1600Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
242 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-LMZ323-344>346-LSZ321-322-231445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
242 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

730 
WHUS73 KAPX 230851
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
451 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

LHZ345>347-LMZ341-342-231600-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110323T1600Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
451 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-LMZ323-344>346-LSZ321-322-231700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
451 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

917 
WHUS73 KAPX 231519
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

LHZ345-LMZ341-342-232330-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110323T1600Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1119 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346-347-232330-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110323T1600Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1119 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ348-349-LMZ323-344>346-LSZ321-322-232330-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1119 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

160 
WHUS73 KAPX 232010
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

LHZ348-349-LMZ323-344>346-LSZ321-322-240300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
410 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-LMZ341-342-240300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
410 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346-347-240300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
410 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

567 
WHUS73 KAPX 240221
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-342-LSZ321-322-240330-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1021 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347>349-240900-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1021 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-344>346-240900-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T1500Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1021 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

079 
WHUS73 KAPX 240759
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

LMZ323-240900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T1500Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
359 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ347>349-241600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
359 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ344>346-241500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T1500Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
359 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

064 
WHUS73 KAPX 241503
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1103 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

LHZ347-241615-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T2100Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
1103 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ344>346-241615-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T1500Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1103 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

LHZ348-349-242100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T2100Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1103 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

662 
WHUS73 KAPX 241954
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

LHZ348-349-242100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-110324T2100Z/
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
354 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
113 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 415 AM/

LOW PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE EAST...WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG BEFORE DURING THE MORNING. THEN...HIGHER PRESSURE
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO THE NORTH WOODS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

JSL

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1129 AM/...TODAY

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WILL DROP
SOUTH AND BUILD INTO THE NRN LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CURRENT SAT AND SFC OBS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND POOR VSBYS ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS SFC DEW PTS IN THE MID 30S CONTINUES TO
FLOW OVER THE DWINDLING SNOW PACK. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVER
NRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM 850MB TEMPS
STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY THIS AFTN...AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND ENHANCE
MIXING.

SWR

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 415 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MAINLY QUIET WX TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO POKE IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHEAR OUT...
REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES AS AN UPPER TROF LATE WEDNESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE LAKES REGION...BETWEEN
DEEP SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...AND COLD HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE. F-GEN RESPONSE WILL PRODUCE A WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAND OF
PRECIP...THAT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. PRECIP ISSUES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

MODELS...NO REAL CHANGE (OR CONVERGENCE) FROM THE MODELS. THE GFS
BRINGS ITS SURFACE LOW INTO SW LOWER MI WED...WHILE THE NAM IS DOWN
IN CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BLASTING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD/DRY AIR...WITH PRECIP
LIKELY ALL THE WAY TO THE SAULT BY WED. THE NAM SAYS THERE IS NO
CHANCE FOR SNOW THAT FAR NORTH...FAVORING A NORTHERN EDGE BETWEEN
PLN AND GLR. GFS WOULD ALSO BRING MIXED PRECIP FURTHER NORTH THAN
THE NAM. GIVEN THE PARENT UPPER TROF IS JUST COMING ONSHORE IN
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE MODELS
STRUGGLING. HOPEFULLY...ONCE THE TROF IS FULLY ONSHORE...THE MODELS
WILL RESOLVE IT AND THE DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION BETTER. (THAT MAY NOT
BE UNTIL TONIGHT.) UNTIL THEN...HPC BASICALLY RECOMMENDS A BLEND OF
THE MODELS BIMODAL SOLUTION...AND THIS SEEMS A REASONABLE APPROACH.

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MI...
1000-850MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM NW TO NE/E. IT/S A TRICKY CLOUD
FORECAST...AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A 900MB
INVERSION...BUT WE HAVE PLENTY OF ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. SUSPECT PLACES SOUTH OF M-72...WHICH WILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE TODAY...WITH RIDE THE EDGE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY THRU THE NIGHT. CHIPPEWA CO WILL ALSO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AS THE DOWNSLOPING NE WIND DEVELOPS. IN
BETWEEN...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 20S.

TUESDAY...SMALLISH UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST NEAR MT/ND BORDER. A TROF
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT DURING
THE DAY AS IT CROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 992MB AS IT MOVES EAST FROM NEB TO
IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND (ESPECIALLY)
SOUTHERN LAKES...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR +10C IN CHICAGO BY 00Z...VS
-10C AT THE SAULT. STRONGEST 850-700MB FGEN IS FROM CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. IN NORTHERN MI...WE WILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR
BETWEEN 900MB AND 600MB TO FIGHT THRU BEFORE PRECIP CAN FALL...NOT
TO MENTION EAST FLOW BELOW 750MB TO REINFORCE THE COOL/DRY AIR. THE
DRY AIR SHOULD WIN MOST OF THE WAR...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF...AND TO A GREATER DEGREE
GFS...SUGGEST A PRECIP THREAT DEVELOPING AS FAR NORTH AS TVC/
STANDISH BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LARGELY IN LINE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS...AND WILL LEAVE LARGELY UNCHANGED. KEEPING PRECIP A
RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL APPEARS BEST FOR NOW...WITH THE ECMWF ALL SNOW
AND THE GFS ALL RAIN.

ELSEWHERE...DISPOSITION OF LOW CLOUDS STILL UNCERTAIN (MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW 900MB)...BUT GRADUALLY BECOMES IMMATERIAL AS
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH. WILL TEND TO KEEP THE FORECAST
ON THE CLOUDY SIDE...EXCEPT FOR PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN
CHIPPEWA CO IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE STEERED A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE...MAINLY IN THE 30S...NEARING 40 IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REACH SOUTHERN MN BY WED
MORNING...THEN OPEN UP AS IT ENTERS THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE
QUEBEC UPPER LOW. REMNANT TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD LATE WED...THOUGH
STRONGEST VORT MAX MAY PASS A BIT TO OUR SOUTH. A DUAL-CENTERED
SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER. AS F-GEN FORCING (AND THE TIGHTEST
850MB THERMAL GRADIENT) MARCH NORTHWARD...THE PRECIP BAND WILL COME
WITH IT. 850-700MB AND 700-500MB FGEN MAX WILL HOLD TOGETHER NICELY
THRU TUE NIGHT...THEN (NOT SURPRISINGLY) DETERIORATE WED AS THE LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SO TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MORE PRECIP THAN
WED (AS MOST MODELS INDICATE).

MODEL DISCREPANCIES FROM A LOCATION AND THERMAL PERSPECTIVE ARE
LARGE...FROM THE GFS BLASTING PRECIP WAY NORTH AND LEAVING THE SOUTH
IN LARGELY AN FZRA EVENT...TO THE NAM REALLY SUPPRESSING PRECIP AND
WARM AIR ALOFT. AM LEANING TOWARD THE OLD 12Z ECMWF...BUT WILL NEED
TO HEDGE A FAIR AMOUNT TO LEAVE LATER SHIFTS WITH ROOM TO MANEUVER.

ECMWF SUGGESTS AN ALL-SNOW EVENT HERE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD SOME MIXED
PRECIP IN THE SOUTH (PL AND PERHAPS FZRA) LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...BAND OF +SN WILL MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI TUESDAY NIGHT...DWINDLING TO -SN DURING THE
DAY WED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL...HPC GUIDANCE LAYS
OUT A NARROW 12-15 INCH BAND ROUGHLY ALONG MY SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL
NOT PLAY IT THAT FINE...BUT WILL HAVE 6-10 INCH TOTALS AS FAR NORTH
AS CVX AND HARRISVILLE...AND RAPIDLY DWINDLING AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY EAST WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS.

PER COLLAB WITH GRR (AND DTX...WHO ARE HOLDING OFF FOR NOW)...WILL
GO AHEAD WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUE EVENING THRU EARLY WED
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF A CVX-HARRISVILLE LINE.

MIX TEMPS LOW-MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. MAX TEMPS UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

JZ

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...NO REAL CHANGES IN THE GOING FORECAST
AS THE MODELS AND THE FORECAST HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS ON
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE PROGRESSIVELY DRYING AFTER THE STORM LOOKS WITH THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT LOOK GOOD AS THE ECMWF AND GFS
PUSH THE DRY AIR IN AND THE MOISTURE OUT. THURSDAY, THERE IS A LOT
OF DRY AIR (850 MB RH AND 700-500 MB LAYER RH BOTH LESS THAN 30%) SO
THE CHANCE FLURRIES LOOKS GOOD AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A
LITTLE WARMER (AROUND -11C) AND WITH THE DRY AIR DISCUSSED EARLIER
IS IN, THERE WILL BE LITTLE LES. THE MODELS KEEP ALL THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE FLURRIES CONTINUING WILL
BE GOOD. FRIDAY, SOME MOISTURE GETS INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY, BUT THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT TRIES TO PUT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN, I WOULD EXPECT THE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THEM. SO WILL KEEP THE
FLURRIES. SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER (RH < 20%) WOULD THINK THAT THAT THERE WOULDN'T
BE ANYTHING. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS TRY TO GET SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH. WILL LEAVE THE
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY,
BUT THE RESULT IS THAT THE REGION IS DRY. THE GFS DOES FLIRT WITH
BRINGING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA, BUT STOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD, SO
WILL CONTINUE DRY WEATHER.

JSL

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 415 AM/

LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD AS CAUSED WINDS TO GO RATHER LIGHT. NW
WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO
WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER MARINE HEADLINES. NEXT PERIODS OF ACTIVE
MARINE WX LOOKS TO BE TUE NIGHT/WED...AS REGION FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ON HUDSON BAY...AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF MI. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY EAST WINDS...REQUIRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS GALES WARNINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 113 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THAT WERE EVIDENT ACROSS NRN MI TAF SITES EARLIER
...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
CIGS TO IMPROVE FROM IFR THIS AFTN TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AS WINDS INCREASE AND TURN NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS THIS EVENING IMPROVING TO
VFR OVERNIGHT.

SWR

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ019>022-025>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
221200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1030 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING.
VISIBILITIES WILL VARY GREATLY...RANGING BETWEEN ONE HALF MILE AND
FIVE MILES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE QUARTER MILE...WILL
BE OVER EAST UPPER MICHIGAN...THROUGH THE STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING...AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH
OF M-55. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX...TO GAYLORD...TO HARRISVILLE. GUSTY EAST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SEE ONGOING WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

JZ/SWR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1052 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

MIZ008-015>017-019>023-025>029-031>035-041-042-211700-
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
GAYLORD...ATLANTA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1052 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG...

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER REMAINING SNOW COVER AND COLD GROUND
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WERE OCCURRING IN AND AROUND THE COMMUNITIES
OF HARBOR SPRINGS...MACKINAC ISLAND AND DRUMMOND ISLAND OF EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. ALSO...POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

THE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITIES MAY WORSEN AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS...AS DRAMATIC
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY CAN OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY SHORT
DISTANCES.

SMD