Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Gaylord, MI

319 
WWUS34 KAPX 171943
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

MIC097-172015-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-110817T2015Z/
MACKINAC MI-
343 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MACKINAC COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
GILCHRIST...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GARNET...REXTON AND EPOUFETTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR 
HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4607 8544 4616 8541 4614 8512 4603 8511
      4604 8515 4604 8521 4606 8530 4608 8533
      4607 8538 4609 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 278DEG 16KT 4612 8536
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

ADAM/LAWRENCE

353 
WWUS34 KAPX 171954
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

MIC097-172004-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-110817T2015Z/
MACKINAC MI-
354 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MACKINAC COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4607 8544 4616 8541 4614 8512 4603 8511
      4604 8515 4604 8521 4606 8530 4608 8533
      4607 8538 4609 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 278DEG 16KT 4611 8528
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$

LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
138 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 429 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE
TEMPORARILY SHOVED ASIDE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.

JZ

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1122 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...991 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
APX RADAR SHOWED A DISSIPATING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
UPPER SOUTHWARD INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT. THE MAIN SHORT TERM
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA
AND IS NOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THIS SYSTEM (WELL TO OUR NORTH) AND MODELS ONLY GENERATE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF MAYBE UP TO 6 C/KM AND MU
CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG). THEREFORE...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THUNDER
COVERAGE ACROSS MOST ZONES (ISOLATED) WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
LIMITED TO EASTERN ZONES WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGHS TODAY STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S DESPITE THE SLUGGISH
START DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

SULLIVAN

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 429 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

TONIGHT...THE ECMWF AND NAM CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH AND DRY THINGS OUT OVERNIGHT. THE GFS ALLOWS FOR THE RAIN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THINK THAT THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOW AND SO
WILL ALLOW FOR THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF AND KEEPS
THE STATE DRY FOR THE DAY AND ON INTO THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO GET INTO W UPPER BY 12Z.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY, ONLY TO HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CONCERN LATE
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN E UPPER AS THE RRQ OF THE 500 MB JET SLIDES
INTO E UPPER ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NAM AND ECMWF BLAST THE FRONT THROUGH FAST ENOUGH THAT THERE IS
A BREAK IN THE RAIN AFTER 06Z, BEFORE A SOUTHERN WAVE BEGINS TO
BUILD THE RAIN BACK INTO N LOWER BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
CONTAINS MOST OF THE RAIN IN N LOWER AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. BOTH
THE MODELS SEEM RATHER WET, AND CONSIDERING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH RAIN, WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS LOW.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY, IS
VERY CONFLICTED WITH THE MODELS. THE ECMWF PUTS US UNDER A HIGH, THE
500 MB TROUGH STILL OVER US, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO +6C
TO +7C BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER WITH A COLD FRONT AND
SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY, THE GOING FORECAST IS DRY, BUT IT
WOULD BE RAIN (GFS) OR DAMP LOW CLOUDS (LE RAIN/DRIZZLE?) DEVELOPING
INTO THE NIGHT. MONDAY, IS DRY CURRENTLY, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED
AS THE ECMWF MAY KEEP THE RAIN OUT FOR A TIME, WHILE THE GFS IS
RATHER WET WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING OUT AND A SHARP 500 MB TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PROBABLY BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON BOTH
MODELS.

JSL

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 429 AM/

WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE DURING THE DAY, BUT THE GRADIENT DOESN'T
TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO REALLY GET GOING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GOES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SO WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE HIGHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT, WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS, SO THE WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND DROP BACK TO AROUND 2
FEET UNTIL THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY, WINDS
AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PROBABLY GO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT
SO WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS ON MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES.

JSL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 133 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANCE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING.
CURRENT TAFS HAVE A TEMPO FOR THIS OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT A HEAVY DOWNPOUR MAY LOWER VSBYS AND/OR CIGS TO MVFR
FOR A FEW MINUTES. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AJS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
436 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
181145-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
436 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
308 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

MIZ008-171930-
CHIPPEWA MI-
308 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ECKERMAN...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF PARADISE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  THREE LAKES...
  HULBERT...
  STRONGS...
  RACO...
  BAYVIEW CAMPGROUND...
  BAY MILLS...
  BRIMLEY...
  BRIMLEY STATE PARK...AND
  PLATT LAKE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

ADAM/LAWRENCE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
314 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

MIZ015-171945-
MACKINAC MI-
314 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF ENGADINE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GILCHRIST...
  GARNET...
  REXTON...
  GARFIELD TOWNSHIP...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

ADAM/LAWRENCE