Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2011

Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

January 6, 20116 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 6, 2011, 2:17 PM EST for 6 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 3 days. 25 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 6, 2011, 2:17 PM EST (19:17 UTC)
Expired
Jan 9, 2011, 5:00 PM EST
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 6, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.8Alba, MI7 HR TOTAL THRU 5PM. SNOWDEPTH 8 INCHES.
Jan 6, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 8Kalkaska, MI11 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM. SNOW DEPTH 11 INCHES.
Jan 6, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 34 E Honor, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 7PM.
Jan 6, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 35 Se Mancelona, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 7PM. SNOWDEPTH 7 INCHES.
Jan 6, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.52 E Kingsley, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 7PM. SNOWDEPTH 6 INCHES.
Jan 7, 6:14 AM ESTSNOW 5Elk Rapids, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.
Jan 7, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.34 E Honor, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOW DEPTH 6 IN. WATER EQUIV. 0.14 IN.
Jan 7, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 13.82 Se Mancelona, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. 12 HR TOTAL 7.0 INCHES.
Jan 7, 7:55 AM ESTSNOW 95 Se Mancelona, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 16 IN.
Jan 7, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Alba, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 10 IN.
Jan 7, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 8.53 S Suttons Bay, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM.
Jan 7, 9:00 AM ESTSNOW 201 E Darragh, MI30 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM.
Jan 7, 4:35 PM ESTSNOW 3.51 N Wellston, MI5HR TOTAL ENDING 430PM. 1.4 INCHES IN LAST HOUR.
Jan 7, 4:43 PM ESTSNOW 5.3Alba, MI9HR TOTAL ENDING 430 PM. SNOW DEPTH 13 INCHES.
Jan 7, 7:48 PM ESTSNOW 3.55 Sw Brethren, MI21 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM. SNOWDEPTH 10 IN.
Jan 7, 7:55 PM ESTSNOW 1.32 W Interlochen, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM. SNOWDEPTH 8 IN.
Jan 7, 7:55 PM ESTSNOW 2.94 E Honor, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM.
Jan 7, 7:55 PM ESTSNOW 45 Sse Mancelona, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM. SNOWDEPTH 18 IN.
Jan 7, 7:55 PM ESTSNOW 24Bellaire, MI36 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM.
Jan 7, 8:47 PM ESTSNOW 3Manistee, MI3 HR TOTAL THRU 830 PM.
Jan 7, 11:17 PM ESTSNOW 3Manistee, MI5.5 HR TOTAL THRU 11 PM.
Jan 7, 11:17 PM ESTSNOW 3.11 N Wellston, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 12 AM. SNOWDEPTH 7 IN.
Jan 7, 11:17 PM ESTSNOW 6Manistee, MI5.5 HR TOTAL THRU 11 PM.
Jan 8, 12:51 AM ESTSNOW 7Lake Ann, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 12AM. SNOW DEPTH 10 IN.
Jan 8, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 7.67 Ssw Beulah, MI24HR TOTAL ENDING 7 AM. SNOW DEPTH 11 INCHES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2011-01-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2011-01-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
704 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

019 
WWUS43 KAPX 061917
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
217 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...A PERIOD OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...

.A POCKET OF COLDER AIR WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE LAKES. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT A BIT BETWEEN NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...
WHICH WILL TEND TO SPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AND MAKE SNOW
FORECASTS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY REGION DO STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREAS.

MIZ019>021-025>027-031-070500-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0001.110106T1917Z-110108T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE
217 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
   CONDITIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

 * HEAVY LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...TAPERING OFF
   BY SATURDAY MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-032-033-070500-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.110106T1917Z-110108T0500Z/
OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY
217 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

*  VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.

 * PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
   EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

ADAM
12 follow-up statements
621 
WWUS43 KAPX 062046
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...A PERIOD OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...

.A POCKET OF COLDER AIR WILL ROTATE DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF THE LAKES. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT A BIT BETWEEN NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS... WHICH WILL TEND TO SPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AND MAKE SNOW FORECASTS DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS AROUND THE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION DO STAND TO SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREAS.

MIZ019>021-025>027-031-070515-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE
346 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

 * HEAVY LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...TAPERING 
   OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ034-070515-
/O.EXA.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HOUGHTON LAKE
346 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.

 * PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
   EVENING...TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-032-033-070515-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY
346 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.

 * PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
   EVENING...TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

ADAM
900 
WWUS43 KAPX 070902
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
SHOULD HOLD THE HEAVIEST SNOWS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
LEELANAU...ANTRIM...AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES.

MIZ019>021-025>027-031-072200-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE
402 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 5 INCHES
   TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ016-072200-
/O.EXA.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
EMMET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY
402 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF EMMET COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

MIZ022-028-032>034-072200-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
402 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TODAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$
440 
WWUS43 KAPX 071619
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1119 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
SHOULD HOLD THE HEAVIEST SNOWS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN LEELANAU...
ANTRIM...AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES.

MIZ022-028-033-034-071730-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
OTSEGO-CRAWFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...GRAYLING...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE
1119 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ019>021-025>027-031-080030-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...MANISTEE
1119 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 5 INCHES
   TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ016-032-080030-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
EMMET-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CADILLAC
1119 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF EMMET COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

JPB
296 
WWUS43 KAPX 072132
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO
COUNTIES CLOSER TO LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOUR...ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY IS LIKELY ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM
MACKINAW CITY EAST TO ROGERS CITY...AND ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN MANISTEE AND PETOSKEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LEELANAU
PENINSULA.

MIZ016-072245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
EMMET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PETOSKEY
432 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ019-020-025-031-080545-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T1000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...
MANISTEE
432 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LOCALLY 4 TO 8 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
   MORNING. PORTIONS OF WESTERN LEELANAU AND BENZIE COUNTIES COULD
   SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON HOW SNOW SQUALLS SET UP OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ021-026-027-080500-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
ANTRIM-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
432 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY THIS EVENING.
   SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF ANTRIM COUNTY AND
   THE OLD MISSION PENINSULA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-080545-
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T1000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
432 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OFF LAKE HURON THIS
   EVENING...AND IS FORECAST TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE US-23
   CORRIDOR BETWEEN MACKINAW CITY AND ROGERS CITY. SNOWFALL
   AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

MIZ032-080500-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CADILLAC
432 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATER
   THIS EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * PERIODS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS WEXFORD COUNTY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
   HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

JPB
170 
WWUS43 KAPX 080317
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1017 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONCENTRATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES...

.LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO COUNTIES CLOSER TO LAKES
MICHIGAN AND HURON OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES...ON
THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FROM CHARLEVOIX TO THE LEELANAU PENINSULA
TO MAINSTEE...AND ALONG THE US-23 CORRIDOR FROM MACKINAW CITY
EAST TO ROGERS CITY.

MIZ021-026-027-080430-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
ANTRIM-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA
1017 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

$$

MIZ032-080430-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T0500Z/
WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CADILLAC
1017 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ019-020-025-031-081000-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T1000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...
MANISTEE
1017 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LOCALLY 4 TO 8 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY 
   MORNING. PORTIONS OF WESTERN LEELANAU AND BENZIE COUNTIES 
   COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON HOW SNOW SQUALLS SET UP 
   OVERNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-081000-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T1000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
1017 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND 
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE US-23
   CORRIDOR BETWEEN MACKINAW CITY AND ROGERS CITY. SNOWFALL
   AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$
396 
WWUS43 KAPX 080909
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
MICHIGAN. AS IT DOES SO...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHERN LAKES. THAT WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...FROM LEELANAU COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRESS A BIT FURTHER INLAND LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

MIZ019-081015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110108T1000Z/
CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLEVOIX
409 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

$$

MIZ017-018-081015-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110108T1000Z/
CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY
409 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ020-025-031-082200-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
409 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT OF 4 TO 8
   INCHES...HIGHEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

JZ
636 
WWUS43 KAPX 081632
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1132 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
MICHIGAN. AS IT DOES SO...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHERN LAKES. THAT WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST...FROM LEELANAU COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRESS A BIT FURTHER INLAND LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ020-025-031-090045-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
1132 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE LEELANAU
   PENINSULA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL SPREAD FARTHER
   INLAND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE
   PUSHED ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
   BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

JPB
082 
WWUS43 KAPX 082122
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
422 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE TONIGHT...

.WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL AND THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING TRAVERSE
CITY...LELAND...FRANKFORT...AND MANISTEE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS APPROACHING SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

MIZ020-025-031-090500-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
422 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THIS EVENING...AND
   CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6
   INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ026-090500-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.110108T2122Z-110109T1200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
422 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
   MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE SNOW
   SQUALLS PERSIST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

JPB
787 
WWUS43 KAPX 090227
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...

.WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL AND THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE M-37
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING TRAVERSE CITY...LELAND...FRANKFORT...AND
MANISTEE. NIGHTTIME SNOWFALL TOTALS APPROACHING SIX INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

MIZ020-025-031-091030-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
LEELANAU-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
927 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
   OVERNIGHT. NIGHTTIME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES
   ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ026-091030-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
927 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM DOWN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
   INTO GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. NIGHTTIME SNOWFALL
   AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING.
   SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE SNOW SQUALLS
   PERSIST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$
936 
WWUS43 KAPX 090913
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
413 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST TODAY...

.WINDS TURNING FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

MIZ020-091700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1700Z/
LEELANAU-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NORTHPORT
413 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. PRE-DAWN AND MORNING
   SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ025-031-091200-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
413 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
   MORNING. EARLY MORNING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ021-027-092200-
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110109T2200Z/
ANTRIM-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA
413 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY INTO ANTRIM
   AND KALKASKA COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
   FROM TORCH LAKE TO KALKASKA...WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
   IS EXPECTED TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

MIZ026-091700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110109T1700Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
413 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY THIS
   MORNING. PRE-DAWN AND MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
   FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR ACME AND
   WILLIAMSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

JZ
643 
WWUS43 KAPX 091203
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST TODAY...

.WINDS TURNING FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY.

MIZ025-031-091315-
/O.EXP.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1200Z/
BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
703 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

MIZ021-027-092200-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110109T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T2200Z/
ANTRIM-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA
703 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY INTO ANTRIM
   AND KALKASKA COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
   FROM TORCH LAKE TO KALKASKA...WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
   IS EXPECTED TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ026-091700-
/O.UPG.KAPX.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110109T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1700Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TRAVERSE CITY
703 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY THIS
   MORNING. PRE-DAWN AND MORNING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
   FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST GRAND TRAVERSE
   COUNTY...INCLUDING ACME AND WILLIAMSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

MIZ020-091700-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1700Z/
LEELANAU-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NORTHPORT
703 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. PRE-DAWN AND MORNING
   SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST AND
   NORTHEAST OF LELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

JZ
886 
WWUS43 KAPX 091635
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST TODAY...

.WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FOCUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.

MIZ020-026-091745-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T1700Z/
LEELANAU-GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...TRAVERSE CITY
1135 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

$$

MIZ021-027-092200-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110109T2200Z/
ANTRIM-KALKASKA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MANCELONA...KALKASKA
1135 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AND HAZARDOUS 
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW
   ACCUMULATION BETWEEN NOON AND 5 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

JPB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 6, 2:00 PM EST, 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 6, 2:00 PM EST, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
200 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 AM/

SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES...ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER AIR LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE GEORGIAN BAY...WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TO EASTERN
UPPER...AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST FAVORED SNOW BELTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

WINDS WILL TREND NORTHERLY SUNDAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONFINE LAKE SNOWS...TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 200 PM/...THIS AFTERNOON

UPDATE...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ALREADY REPORTED IN
ANTRIM AND KALKASKA COUNTIES...COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A HANDFUL OF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES VALID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MORE INFO WITH THE AFTERNOON (4PM) FORECAST DISCUSSION.

ADAM

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTER WORKING THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOO AREA AND
SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FLOW TURNING
SHARPLY NW BEHIND THE FRONT.

AREA OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL THAT PRODUCED AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA IS NOW EXITING INTO LAKE
HURON. BUT WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...LAKE
EFFECT/INDUCED PRECIP OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY RAMPING
UP OVER A PORTION OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING SEEMING MORE
TIED TO THE H8 TROUGH AXIS NOW SLIDING THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN...
WITH SOME AREAS FROM PETOSKEY TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SEEING SOME GOOD
SNOWFALL AT TIMES. LAKE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINLY CELLULAR/
UNORGANIZED AND TRANSIENT...SO FAR.

REST OF TODAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO FURTHER VEER NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE. AS THIS OCCURS...INITIAL BATCH OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL NOW MOVING THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD GET SHOVED
INLAND AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO MORE THE TRADITIONAL NNW LAKE EFFECT BANDS. QUESTION IS...WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH ACCUMULATION IN TOTAL TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES IN
THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO NNW FLOW...THIS
SHOULD FOCUS AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AROUND THE
TRAVERSE CITY/KALKASKA AREA...AND POINTS SOUTH. SO WITH THAT IN MIND
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES JUST YET. WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE STILL A
POSSIBILITY.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 655 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

ALL SORTS OF FUN AND GAMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER
LOW NOW OVER QUEBEC WILL SHOOT BACK WESTWARD...AND GET DRAGGED
OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LOOPING BACK TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NNE 1000-850MB WINDS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUIET THINGS A BIT BY SATURDAY. LES TRENDS REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERN.

MODELS...DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO
START TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW TO THE SE. THE GFS IS OVER LAKE ERIE BY
8/06Z...WHILE NAM/12Z ECMWF/21Z SREF STILL HANG BACK OVER NORTHERN
LOWER. PER HPC...A BIG OLE BLEND IS IN ORDER...AT LEAST UNTIL THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RESOLVES ITSELF BETTER.

TONIGHT...OUR INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL HANG AROUND NEAR GEORGIAN
BAY...DEEPENING A BIT TO 992MB. A 2ND LOW WILL MIGRATE RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...REACHING EASTERN
SUPERIOR AT 994MB OR SO BY MORNING. OUR INITIAL NNW 1000-850MB WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NW THRU 06Z. THEY WILL BACK FURTHER TO WNW
ON LAKE MI/HURON OVERNIGHT...AND GO ALMOST WEST ON EASTERN UPPER MI
(WITH VERY TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE THANKS TO THE APPROACHING LOW).
850MB TEMPS WILL STABILIZE NEAR -16/-17C.

EASTERN UPPER...AGAIN A PREVAILING NNW FETCH EARLY ON WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY QUIET OUTSIDE OF PARADISE AREA. VERY LATE...1000-850MB
CONVERGENCE INCREASES MARKEDLY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES INTO FAR WESTERN
CHIPPEWA. 2-3 INCHES THERE WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW...BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF EASTERN UPPER WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHERN LOWER...REASONABLY VIGOROUS LES STILL EXPECTED...WITH DELTA
T/S 20-22...INVERSION HEIGHTS 6-7K FT...AND INCREASING MOISTURE
ABOVE 750MB (MAINLY OVERNIGHT...AS SYSTEM TO OUR N APPROACHES). THE
SLOWLY BACKING WINDS...FROM NNW TO WNW...WILL TEND TO SPREAD THINGS
OUT A BIT. GIVEN THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT...WHEN
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...BEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE NW/WNW SNOWBELTS
(MAINLY INSIDE A TVC-GRAYLING-PETOSKEY TRIANGLE). WILL HAVE 1-3 FOR
TVC/CAD AREAS...2-4 KALK/GLR/BOYNE CITY. MINIMAL SNOWFALL EAST OF
I-75. THE MAX AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL ADVISORY ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS NO
NEED TO ISSUE THAT HEADLINE THIS EARLY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND OVER FAR
NORTHERN LOWER MI. AN ASSOCIATED WNW-ESE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS EASTERN UPPER...EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A W-E
ORIENTATION WHILE REACHING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE IN THE DAY. A
WAVE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONT...MOST LIKELY JUST WEST OF
EMMET COUNTY AT 00Z. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPS TO
-26/-27C...THAT WILL ALSO BE THE TOP OF THE INVERSION (8-9K FT) FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. OMEGA WILL ALSO BE NICELY ENHANCED IN THE
CONVERGENT AND SHARPLY CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT UP THRU 500MB.

SO THE THERMODYNAMICS AND LARGE-SCALE KINEMATICS ARE THERE FOR
IMPRESSIVE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. BUT...BUT...WINDS ARE GOING TO MAKE
THE /WHERE/ PART OF THE EQUATION PROBLEMATIC. WILL LOOK AT
1000-700MB WINDS...GIVEN THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE LAYER.

FOR EASTERN UPPER MI...WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIKELY TRANSITING THE
LUCE/WESTERN MACKINAC CO AREA DURING THE DAY...THE BEST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL OCCUR WEST OF THERE. IN FACT...THERE MAY BE SW FLOW CONCERNS
FOR A TIME INTO MACKINAC COUNTY AROUND MIDDAY (THOUGH THAT IS BRIEF
AND THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK)...AND SE WINDS INTO DETOUR/DRUMMOND LATE
IN THE DAY (SAME WEAK WINDS THOUGH). WILL GIVE MOST OF EASTERN UPPER
MI SNOW...THE BOUNDARY DROPPING THRU SHOULD FOCUS A BAND OF
SHSN...BUT KEEP AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...UP TO 2 IN.

NORTHERN LOWER...INITIAL WNW WILL GO WEST BY MIDDAY THRU THE
AFTERNOON (AND EVEN WSW NEAR LTL TRAV BAY). TOWARD EVENING...A QUICK
VEERING TO NW/NNW IS ANTICIPATED ON LAKE MI (WHILE SOUTHERLY ON
HURON). MEAN 1000-700MB WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF NW LOWER...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN LEELANAU/ANTRIM/CHARLEVOIX/SOUTHERN EMMET...
WHICH WILL BENEFIT FROM THE LONGEST FETCH WILL OCCUR FOR THE LONGEST
TIME. 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF M-72 AND WEST OF I-75...3-5 TO
THE NORTH (BUT SOUTH OF PLN). IN NE LOWER MI...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
STILL JUSTIFIES NMRS SHSN AND LOCAL 1-2 INCH ACCUMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UPPER LOW WILL PROCEED TO SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON FRI NIGHT...AND TO PA ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PROCEED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN HANG OUT
IN CENTRAL LOWER MI ON SATURDAY. THE CONVOLUTED AND HIGHLY CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL WINDS PRESENT EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL GIVE WAY TO
NE-ERLY WINDS BY SAT MORNING...AND BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY.

EASTERN UPPER...A DRYING TREND SHOULD TAKE HOLD FRI NIGHT...AS
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT EXITS SOUTH AND NE WINDS ARE NO HELP. NO MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECLUDE MUCH CHANCE OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL MAYBE LATE SATURDAY.

NORTHERN LOWER...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE A BIT...AS A
TOUCH OF ATLANTIC AIR GETS DRAWN IN. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND
13C...DECREASING DELTA T/S TO THE UPPER TEENS. THAT/S STILL PLENTY
FOR LES. THE PASSING BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT FOR THE MOST PART UNFAVORABLE WINDS WILL
LIMIT ACCUMS. 1-2/1-3 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE FOR APN/ROGERS
CITY...AND FOR LEELANAU DOWN TO MANISTEE...LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AREAS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS SATURDAY...THOUGH THE BETTER
ACCUMS WILL EXTEND FURTHER DOWN THE HURON COAST TOWARD OSC. STILL...
A COUPLE OF INCHES ONLY GIVEN THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. WILL
HAVE LESS SNOW IN THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY...THOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SUN.

JZ

REST OF THE FCST BEGINNING 00Z/SUN: UNSEASONABLY QUIET WX LOCKED-IN
THRU AT LEAST MID-MONTH VIA UNBUDGING GREENLAND BLOCK. POLAR VORTEX
WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE GTLKS SAT NGT-SUN WITH
LINGERING BAGGINESS IN THE HGT FIELDS. THE EC REMAINS ON THE SLOWEST
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH DEPARTURE OF UPR TROF SUN. THE GEM
PERSISTS IN FCSTG SUBSTANTIAL 12 HR HGT RISES AND SHRTWV RIDGING.
GFS HAS SHOWN BOTH EXTREMES BUT UNDECIDED. EITHER WAY DONT EXPECT
MUCH DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WX. THE TROF ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW FRI
NGT-SAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR DUMP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
USA. 1056 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NW TERRITORIES SPILLS DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE BEGINNING SUN. SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION WILL KEEP THIS COLD
AWAY FROM THE GTLKS. CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE LES THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR OH VALLEY CYCLOGENESIS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE EXIT
REGION OF POLAR JET...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT E COAST PREVAILS.
THE TROF PROGRESSING THRU THE SRN USA STEALS THE INSTABILITY AND OH
VALLEY TROF/JET SUPPLEMENT E COAST DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A SLIVER OF
POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SOMETHING CLOSE TO MI IN THE MON-MON NGT
TIME FRAME VIA USA/NA ENSEMBLES...IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL ATTM. NO
SUBSTANTIVE PCPN EVENTS ARE FORESEEABLE THRU 1/20. THE DAILIES...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENUF TO RAISE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY SAT NGT
FOR N-NNW FLOW AREAS WITH LINGERING LOWER POPS SUN AS MSTR THINS.
SOME DUSTINGS UP TO .5" ENVISIONED SAT NGT AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING
MEASURABLE SUN. SUNDAY COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHWRS/FLURRIES INTERMINGLED WITH SUN. MON MOST PLACES PROBABLY SEE A
FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE IN NE-N FLOW. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/WINDS/DWPTS A
TAD SAT NGT-MON. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

JH

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 AM/

NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE ON EASTERN
SUPERIOR STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE NW LOWER
MI COAST...AND FOR WHITEFISH BAY. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED LATER ON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE LOWER MI COAST...AS WINDS
INCREASE OVER THERE TONIGHT.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 200 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

TOUGH (LOW CONFIDENCE) FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A POCKET
OF COLDER AIR ROTATES DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WIND DIRECTIONS
AND RESULTING AREAS MOST IMPACTED REMAIN THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS
SHIFTING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTH TO WEST ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FOCUSING HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS/IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
BETWEEN TVC AND PLN. HAVE ATTEMPTED SOME TIMING OF WORST CONDITIONS
BASED ON ANTICIPATED WIND DIRECTION CHANGES. BUT EXPECTED MANY
AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ADAM

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     MIZ022-028-032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     MIZ019>021-025>027-031.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 6, 11:23 AM EST, 2 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1123 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
071200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1123 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SNOW BELTS WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NEAR THE COASTLINES OF BOTH
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE PASS ON SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ADAM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 6, 12:19 PM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1219 PM EST THU JAN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             1 E DARRAGH             44.77N 85.03W
01/06/2011  E6.0 INCH        KALKASKA           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            8 HR TOTAL THRU 12 PM. PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

&&

BERGER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 6, 4:05 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX31 hr
Jan 6, 2:17 PM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryAPXCheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Missaukee, Otsego, Presque Isle and 2 more38 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Michigan, 2011Every lake effect snow warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.