Gale Watch 8, NWS Gaylord, MI

472 
WHUS73 KAPX 141958
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

LMZ323-341-342-150400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-110414T2300Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110415T1600Z-110416T1300Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
358 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ347-348-LSZ321-142100-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-110414T2300Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
358 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LMZ344>346-150400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-110415T0500Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110415T1600Z-110416T1300Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
358 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY.
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ349-150400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-110415T0500Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
358 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-150400-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110415T1600Z-110416T1300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
358 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

512 
WHUS73 KAPX 150306
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1106 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

LMZ344>346-151115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-110415T0500Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110415T1600Z-110416T1300Z/
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1106 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ349-150415-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-110415T0500Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1106 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-151115-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110415T1600Z-110416T1300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-
1106 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

397 
WHUS73 KAPX 150807
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151615-
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110415T1600Z-110416T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0050.110415T1800Z-110416T1200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
407 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-322-151615-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0036.110415T1500Z-110416T1200Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
407 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346>349-151615-
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110416T0000Z-110417T1200Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
407 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$

LHZ345-151615-
/O.EXT.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110416T0000Z-110417T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
407 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS. 

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

578 
WHUS73 KAPX 151512
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1112 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

LSZ321-322-152315-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-110416T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0050.110415T2100Z-110417T1200Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1112 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-152315-
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0050.110415T2100Z-110417T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0008.110416T0000Z-110417T1200Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1112 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-152315-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0050.110415T1800Z-110416T1200Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1112 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 AM EDT THU APR 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 357 AM/

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY...AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS. CLOUDS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY. A WINTRY MIX
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.P. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
RAIN OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS STORM WILL EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 357 AM/...TODAY

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA...PUSHED ALONG BY A LARGE
CANADIAN HIGH NORTH OF WINNIPEG. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDED ALONG
THE NORTH SHORES OF LAKES HURON AND SUPERIOR. A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES
WERE SEEN MID-EVENING NEAR APX PROPER...AND RULE OUT THE SAME VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR MBL/CAD...BUT NO PRECIP IS NOTED CURRENTLY.
SOME LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS HAVE MORPHED INTO A LARGER CLOUD DECK IN
CENTRAL UPPER MI...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS N AND NE OF
THE SAULT.

THE LARGE...DRY...AND COOL HIGH WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
TODAY. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND SWALLOWED
UP BY THE BUILDING HIGH. ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ERODED BY INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BY
DOWNSLOPING OFF OF ONTARIO. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
EASTERN UPPER TO START THE MORNING...BUT THEY WON/T LAST. TO THE
SOUTH...A FROPA-ASSOCIATED MID CLOUD DECK IS JUST ABOUT OUT THE
DOOR. SOME UPSTREAM CIRRUS AND ALTOCU (THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING
FROM SE WI TO NORTHERN INDIANA) WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN EXIT TO THE SE. BY 21Z...PWAT OVER EASTERN UPPER IS
DOWN TO 0.11...IMPRESSIVELY DRY.

SO...ALL AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...AND
SUNNY NORTH TO MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS LOW/MID
40S IN EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG MANY OF THE BEACHES...AS WARM AS THE
LOW 50S IN THE S CENTRAL ZONES. N-NE WINDS 10-20MPH ALONG THE COASTS
WILL ADD EXTRA CHILL THERE.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 357 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

STILL LOOKS QUIET TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS TREND INCREASINGLY QUIET
FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE THE RIDE GETS BUMPY. THE LARGE HIGH PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL REACH SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE FRIDAY...KEEPING US DRY.
(THIS IS A CLASSIC FIRE WX PATTERN...AND IN FACT THAT IS A CONCERN
FOR FRIDAY...DESPITE THE CHILLY TEMPS). PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT ACROSS MI
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PRECIP TRENDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN.

MODELS...A TREND TOWARD SLOWER PRECIP ONSET IS NOTED IN MOST MODELS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HPC CORRECTLY NOTES THAT THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT...AND SLOWEST...MODEL ALL ALONG. WILL LEAN THE
FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

TONIGHT...NO CONCERNS...WITH A STRONG HIGH TO THE NE AND A BUILDING
500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME CIRRUS WILL ENCROACH ON THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN WITH TIME...SO MORE SHELTERED LOCALES WILL TEND TO STAY
DECOUPLED...BUT PLACES WITH BETTER EXPOSURE WILL DEFINITELY NOT.
THAT LEADS TO A TRICKY MIN-TEMP FORECAST...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH COOLING EARLY ON TO SEE EVENTUAL LOWS NEAR 20 TO THE MID
20S.

FRIDAY...500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES NORTHERN MI FROM SW TO
NE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SLOWLY MOVES FROM EASTERN KS TO
CENTRAL MIZZOU. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INITIAL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL CERTAINLY TRY TO WORK PRECIP NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
BUT THE WALL OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN MI
(850MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30C AT 18Z)...AND DO NOT SEE A RISK
OF PRECIP THRU 00Z. WE WILL CLOUD UP IN THE SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE EASTERN UPPER WILL SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EVEN THRU EARLY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
0C...KEEPING MAX TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING EAST WINDS
WILL PLACE THE COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR LAKE HURON
(MID 40S)...AND OUR WARMEST NEAR TVC/MBL (LOW-MID 50S).

SPEAKING OF WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY...BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH (WESTERN QUEBEC) AND
INCOMING LOW (NORTHERN MIZZOU). EAST 950MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
30-35KT IN NORTHERN LOWER MI BY 21Z...WELL WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER.
MOST AREAS WILL BE 15-25 GUSTING 35 MPH. EXPOSED LOCALES (ESPECIALLY
ON LAKE HURON) WILL BE 20-30 GUST 40. THIS IS PUSHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL DIP DOWN TO NEAR
ZERO (ALL GUIDANCE GOES INTO SINGLE DIGITS). THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AND WINDY MAKES FOR A DANGEROUS FIRE WX DAY...DESPITE TEMPS BEING
NOWHERE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA. A MENTION OF ENHANCED WILDFIRE
THREAT WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL IL...AND WILL START
TO OPEN UP TOWARD MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 991MB AS IT NEARS
MILWAUKEE. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF MAXIMUM 295-300K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS
MORE THAN ENOUGH ASCENT TO WIPE OUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY...AND
THE ST MARYS VALLEY IS JUST ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF /NOT/ SEEING PRECIP BY 12Z SATURDAY. EXPECT SYNOPTIC
PRECIP TO ADVANCE INTO CVX/STANDISH BY 06Z/2AM...AND PUSH INTO THE
SAULT TOWARD 12Z. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.40 IN NORTHERN LOWER...0.05
TO 0.20 IN EASTERN UPPER. P-TYPE...NORTHERN LOWER MI LOOKS LIKE ALL
RAIN...WITH 850MB TEMPS (AND SURFACE TEMPS) STAYING ABOVE FREEZING
THRU THE NIGHT ALL THE WAY UP TO PLN. EASTERN UPPER MI WILL BE
TOUCHIER...THOUGH WITH THE LATE ARRIVAL TIME AND WARMING 850MB
LEVEL...THE MAIN ISSUE APPEARS TO BE RA VS MAYBE FZRA/IP...NOT SO
MUCH SN. WILL HAVE MORE OF AN ICY MIX UP THERE...ESPECIALLY IN
CHIPPEWA CO (THOUGH AGAIN QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THERE). MIN TEMPS
WILL BE MID/UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN LOWER...UPPER 20S IN EASTERN
UPPER. WILL STILL BE WINDY IN EXPOSED LOCALES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
HURON AND IN EASTERN UPPER.

SATURDAY...A NEW 500MB LOW WILL START TO FORM NW OF SUPERIOR...AS
SOME PHASING OCCURS BETWEEN THE EJECTING LOW AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ARRIVING FROM THE NW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT NNE UP LAKE
MI...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER...AND ON TOWARD THE NE SUPERIOR
SHORE. THAT HAS THE BENEFIT OF KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...OR AT LEAST UNTIL COLD AIR STARTS TO
RUSH BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD DRY SLOT FOR PART OF THE
MORNING...LEADING TO MORE OF A DRIZZLY PERIOD...BEFORE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AM NOT GOING TO GET
CUTE WITH THIS...JUST A BLANKET SOGGY DAY...WITH SOME SNOW STARTING
TO MIX BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER AND PARTS OF NW
LOWER. MAX TEMPS MAINLY LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

JZ

REST OF THE FCST: 18Z/00Z GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT DEEP LOW
PRES DEPARTS THE NRN LAKES SAT NIGHT...LIFTING TO JAMES BAY BY
DAYBREAK SUN. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THIS STORM WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH A SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU SRN CANADA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY/DECREASES CONFIDENCE AS THE TWO STREAMS INTERACT. THE
NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GEM WANT TO ABSORB THE SHRTWV TROF INTO THE
LOW OVER THE GTLKS RESULTING IN A SLOWER EXIT SUN MORNING. THE
12Z/13 UKMET IS IN BETWEEN. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE FCST AND WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED A "CHANCE" OF
R/S...IT IS LIKELY THAT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MAY BE DRY MOST AREAS.
THIS HAS SUPPORT FROM 12Z/3 AND 00Z/14 NAEFS.

TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU TUE.

THE DAILIES...

SAT NGT: MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS BUT CLOUDY. WINDS PICK UP FROM
THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

SUN: EXPECT A 2-DAY REPRIEVE FROM SIGNIFICANT WX TO BEGIN. PROBABLY
M/CLOUDY TO START IN WEAKENING CYCLONIC NW FLOW...BUT SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING CLOUDS WITH A BIT OF LEFTOVER GUSTINESS.

LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES?: GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES BRING -10 TO -12C DOWN
TO THE STRAITS. 00Z EC IS CLOSE BUT LACKING MOISTURE. SHOULD BE ENUF
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST CLOUDS.

UPPER FLOW RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WHICH MEANS
UNCERTAINTY IS BOUND TO INCREASE AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE SHRTWV PERTURBATIONS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE WE HAVE A BREAK AS
COLD FRONT SETTLES ALONG I-70 AND HIGH PRES SKIRTS BY TO THE N.

MON: SUNNY N OF GLR AND P/CLOUDY S.

THE NEXT HIGHER CONFIDENCE WX-MAKER THAT THE MODELS AGREE ON DROPS
INTO THE DESERT SW MON-TUE. THAT SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER SOAKER TUE-WED.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS ALTHO ERN U.P. MAY STAY IN PARTIAL SUN MOST
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT -RA MAKES IT UP TO
M-72.

JH

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 357 AM/

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY UP FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
FOR TODAY...THANKS TO SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY N-NE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.THOSE WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN UP ON LAKE MI SOUTH OF GD
TRAV LIGHT THRU THE EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NW...THE SET-UP IS
IDEAL FOR STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FOR A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED PERIOD. PER
COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR
LAKE MI AND THE STRAITS. HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE (WITH A LOT OF WAVE ACTION ON LAKE HURON)...AND GALES MAY
BE A FACTOR ON THE OTHER WATERS AS WELL.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 132 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE
CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE NEXT LOW SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST. WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN SOUTH OF US, THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT WITH VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY SPRINKLES,
WHICH ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY, THE VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR AS
WELL. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 06Z, THE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE TAF
SITES.

JSL

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
438 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
141100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
438 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING.  EXACT PRECIPITATION
TYPES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH RAIN...SNOW...OR SLEET EQUALLY
POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.  IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN LATER
SATURDAY.

MORE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...RIVER THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM THE RECENT
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JPB