Gale Warning 48, NWS Gaylord, MI

637 
WHUS73 KAPX 111428
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

LHZ345-LMZ323-112100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ341-342-344-112100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-112100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-112100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346-349-LMZ345-346-LSZ322-112100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
1028 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

480 
WHUS73 KAPX 111953
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344-120300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
353 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LSZ321-120300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
353 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ347-348-120300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
353 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ346-349-LMZ345-346-LSZ322-120300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
353 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

296 
WHUS73 KAPX 120135
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
935 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

LHZ347-348-120400-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110412T0400Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
935 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344-LSZ321-120245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI-
935 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LHZ346-LMZ345-346-LSZ322-120245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110412T0300Z/
ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-
935 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LHZ349-120400-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110412T0400Z/
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
935 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
107 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 402 PM/

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN EASTERN UPPER AND BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR IN NORTHERN LOWER...AS WE SIT IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH IN
LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT...COMES A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...AND LEAVE ONLY
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. DRY AND PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WILL RETURN INTO
MIDWEEK.

JH/LOCKER/DL

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/...REST OF TONIGHT

SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS REACHED THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THRU WRN WISCONSIN...ERN IOWA...NRN MISSOURI AND ERN
KANSAS. LATEST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG/SVR STORMS DEVELOPING WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING OUT OF NE LWR MICHIGAN ATTM.
REST OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN IS EXPERIENCING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE ACTION LATE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED LINE
OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTION (COMPLETE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS)
CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. SHEAR ACROSS
WISCONSIN HAS BECOME CLOSER TO UNIDIRECTIONAL...LEADING TO MORE
LINEAR CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE HAVE DROPPED ISOLD TORNADOES/FUNNEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60 KTS OVERNIGHT AS IT LEANS INTO LWR
MICHIGAN...AS LAST GASP OF 850 MB THETA E RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD
WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 500 MB LOW WILL KICK OUT
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING AREA OF GREATEST UPPER DIVERGENCE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND
FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS 500 MB JET MAX WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS THRU THE STRAITS AREA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 402 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND

PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/STORM SYSTEM
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT/RIDGING...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SRN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE EAST COAST...PINCHES OFF FROM THE NRN
STREAM...RESULTING IN A SPLIT AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...THE NRN STREAM DIRECTS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
CANADA...WHICH LAYS OUT A COLD FRONT OVER NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO HUDSON BAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING WHILE THE SRN
STREAM EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CLOSES OFF...AND
RESULTS IN STACKED LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A SLOW
DRIFTER TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO NRN MICHIGAN...SFC LOW RAPIDLY
EXITS ENE INTO QUEBEC. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM DAYBREAK
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH/MID 50S EAST...TO EVERYONE
IN THE 40S/AROUND 50 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. THIS COLDER AIR WILL
COMBINE WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN THE DAKOTAS)...AND FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...TO PRODUCE A RATHER WINDY DAMP AND RAW DAY. WIND SPEEDS
LOOKING TO BE A SOLID 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THE
MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ENTIRELY HELD TO UNDER THE -10C ISOTHERM
RESULTING IN PRIMARILY A PERIODIC DRIZZLE SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE DRIZZLE COULD
LINGER INTO A FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
INTERIOR NRN LOWER (UPSLOPE)...HOWEVER THE MAIN MOISTURE BAND WILL
BE PULLING ENE WITH PARENT SFC LOW AND ALL OF THE 1000-850MB
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THAT MOISTURE...WILL HAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND
EAST OF US. THUS...WILL PULL CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO CHILLY FOR
THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH WEAKENING WINDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION...DRIER AIR AND WEAK WINDS WILL
BRING CLEARER SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A TOUCH
GIVEN GOOD SUN...INTO THE 50S ALL AREAS (OUTSIDE OF CHILLIER COASTAL
LOCALES). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S WHILE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ECMWF/NAM AND GFS AGREEABLE ON PASSING
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN CANADA...TO DROP A COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN
MICHIGAN. WEAK FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT THE ENTIRE
TIME AND WILL EXTEND SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 50S NORTH/MIDDLE 60S SOUTH STARTING WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN
DROP INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY. WILL ALSO INCREASE SKIES TO LEAN
TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT THINKING THE ENTIRE
TIME WILL BE CLOUDY. DO EXPECTED SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...OVERALL EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF NEXT EVENTS IN
QUESTION DUE TO CLOSED OFF SYSTEM DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THEN GREAT LAKES. THESE SITUATIONS ARE ALMOST ALWAYS SLOWER THAN
THOUGHT. GENERAL IDEA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING  AND GRADUALLY
WORKING ENE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
PRECEDING THIS...HUDSON BAY HIGH SET UP SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL
EASTERLY DRY AIR FEED INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SHARP BREAK
OFF IN MOISTURE PROFILES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY BRING A NO CHANCE OF RAIN SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST EASTERN
UPPER. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO EXCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.
ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH OF A RAIN SCENARIO AT
ALL...UNSURE ABOUT EXACT POSITION OF FRONTAL ZONE TO EXCLUDE AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL. HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND...MORE LIKELY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

SMD

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 402 PM/

VERY STRONG S/SW WINDS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NEARSHORES SOUTH OF THE
STRAITS...AS WARM FRONT SETTLES INTO FAR NRN LOWER. 950MB WINDS ARE
INCREASING TO AN EXPECTED 30-50KTS. PROBLEM IS...THE OVERLAKE
STABILITY IS STRONGLY INCREASING. ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND IS BEING REALIZED IN THE COOLER AIR
JUST ABOVE THE LAKES. CERTAINLY WORTH CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...AND EXITS HURON NEARSHORES AROUND DAYBREAK OR
JUST PRIOR. DECREASING STABILITY/INITIAL COLDER AIR SURGE TO MIX
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS...WHILE CONTINUED DECREASE IN STABILITY
MONDAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING IN CONTINUED MARGINAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS FOR ALL BUT WHITEFISH/ST MARYS RIVER. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A GALE WATCH. HIGHER PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WINDS BY TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. SMD

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 107 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AND LLWS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT APN THROUGH 08Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT ON
MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY...WHILE CEILINGS LOWER BACK
TO MVFR AND NMRS SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

RUNYAN

&&

.HYDROLOGY.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE IN SPOTS THANKS TO WAVES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIP AND SNOWMELT OVER
THE PAST 2 WEEKS (SATURATED SOILS). LATEST FORECAST SHOWS RIFLE
RIVER NEAR STERLING RISING TO JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THUS HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING. ELSEWHERE...HEALTHY
RISES NOTED ON THE PINE RIVER NEAR RUDYARD (NEARLY 5 FEET TODAY
ALONE)...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN EXPECTED QPF
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SHARP
RISES IN THE HWO THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LAWRENCE/RUNYAN

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ345>349.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
147 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
111200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
147 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH 4 AM. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NEARSHORE FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...RECENT HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAIN WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

LAWRENCE/RUNYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1011 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             2 W MAPLE CITY          44.85N  85.90W
04/10/2011  M0.88 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM     HAIL             MAPLE CITY              44.85N  85.87W
04/10/2011  M1.00 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM     HAIL             10 WNW MAPLE CITY       44.90N  86.06W
04/10/2011  M0.70 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM     HAIL             1 N MAPLE CITY          44.86N  85.87W
04/10/2011  M0.70 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

0647 PM     HAIL             MAPLE CITY              44.85N  85.87W
04/10/2011  M1.00 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM     HAIL             LEWISTON                44.88N  84.32W
04/10/2011  M0.88 INCH       MONTMORENCY        MI   PUBLIC

0743 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W ATLANTA             45.00N  84.22W
04/10/2011  E50 MPH          MONTMORENCY        MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0757 PM     HAIL             GRAYLING                44.66N  84.71W
04/10/2011  M1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM     HAIL             7 E GRAYLING            44.66N  84.57W
04/10/2011  M0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   AMATEUR RADIO

0817 PM     HAIL             HUBBARD LAKE            44.80N  83.59W
04/10/2011  M0.62 INCH       ALCONA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM     HAIL             3 N LINCOLN             44.73N  83.41W
04/10/2011  M1.00 INCH       ALCONA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

0825 PM     HAIL             8 E GRAYLING            44.66N  84.55W
04/10/2011  M0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM     HAIL             HUBBARD LAKE            44.80N  83.59W
04/10/2011  M0.50 INCH       ALCONA             MI   AMATEUR RADIO

0853 PM     HAIL             OSCODA                  44.42N  83.33W
04/10/2011  M0.25 INCH       IOSCO              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100329 APX1100326 APX1100327 APX1100330 APX1100328
APX1100332 APX1100331 APX1100333 APX1100337 APX1100334 APX1100335
APX1100336 APX1100339 APX1100338

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1223 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     MANISTEE                44.24N  86.33W
04/11/2011  M49 MPH          MANISTEE           MI   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100340

JZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1229 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

MIZ021-026-027-032-033-110515-
ANTRIM MI-GRAND TRAVERSE MI-KALKASKA MI-MISSAUKEE MI-WEXFORD MI-
1229 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 1227 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREILICKVILLE TO
GRAWN TO KARLIN TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MESICK...AND MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  KALKASKA...
  MESICK...
  BUCKLEY...
  SHERMAN...
  SPIDER LAKE...
  KINGSLEY...
  WILLIAMSBURG...
  BARKER CREEK...
  RAPID CITY...
  MANTON...
  FIFE LAKE...
  SOUTH BOARDMAN...
  ANTRIM...
  DARRAGH...
  MOREY...
  SIGMA...
  SHARON...
  BEAR LAKE...
  MOORESTOWN...
  BATES...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
114 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 AM     HAIL             SHARON                  44.58N  85.08W
04/11/2011  M0.70 INCH       KALKASKA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100341

JSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
132 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GRAYLING            44.66N  84.77W
04/11/2011  E40 MPH          CRAWFORD           MI   PUBLIC

0130 AM     HAIL             3 W GRAYLING            44.66N  84.77W
04/11/2011  M0.25 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100342
EVENT NUMBER APX1100343

JSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
244 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

MIZ030-110715-
ALCONA MI-
244 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 242 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BARTON CITY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF THE TOWN
OF HUBBARD LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HUBBARD LAKE...
  SPRUCE...
  LINCOLN...
  BLACK RIVER...
  NEGWEGON STATE PARK...