Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 423 AM/

LOW PRESSURE...NEAR METRO DETROIT EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BRING
ONE LAST ROUND OF RAIN TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE
RAIN TODAY WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO MICHIGAN FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A WELCOME BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

JZ

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 423 AM/...TODAY

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...DEPARTING 993 MB LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH 989 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
DETROIT. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED ANOTHER BLOB OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF INDIANA AND OHIO. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES
TO REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG WITH
ONGOING AND FUTURE FLOODING CONCERNS.

YET ANOTHER SURGE OF RAINFALL WILL SLIDE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS BATCH LOOKS
TO DELIVER ANOTHER QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION (HIGHEST NORTHEAST LOWER) WHICH WILL
OBVIOUSLY EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING (SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW). LOCATIONS LOOKING TO GET THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THIS
MORNING (ALCONA TO GLADWIN) THANKFULLY HAVE NOT SEEN THE MOST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE INFLUENCE OF COLD ADVECTION...AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
BY THIS EVENING WHILE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT
LIVED BREAK (OR AT LEAST A LULL) IN THE RAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS. THE COLD ADVECTION (800 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -3C BY LATE
AFTERNOON)...AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL LEAD
TO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE EASTERN UPPER...WILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN. HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

SULLIVAN

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 423 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

SOUNDINGS GET EVEN COLDER TONIGHT...AND AS TROUGH SWEEPS ON THROUGH
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THE
SHOWERS COULD ACTUALLY BE ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES MAYBE SEE A FEW WET FLAKES. THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE ARE BOTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ENDED
POPS AFTER 09Z FRI. LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S WITH A CHILLY
NORTHWEST BREEZE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANY EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FRIDAY SHOULD
QUICKLY DEPART AS RIDING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW LINGERS RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY SO HAVE REMOVED POPS. JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MILDER MIDDLE
50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE CHILLY MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE PLEASANT UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH (BELIEVE IT OR NOT).

SULLIVAN

REST OF THE FORECAST...STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE
THE NEXT UPPER TROF WILL BE. GFS/GEM IN SOLID AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF THAT KICKS OUT ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER...KEEPING A SHARP UPPER TROF IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD THRU TUESDAY. HPC LEANS TOWARD THE SLOW CAMP...THOUGH
PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS IS NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH EARLIER LOCAL THINKING...WHICH FAVORED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION. WITH THIS CONFLICT IN MIND...WILL ONLY MAKE LIMITED
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

WILL EXPAND LIKELY POPS INTO NE LOWER MI SAT NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
WORKS INTO AND CROSSES MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TIMING...HIGHER (LIKELY) POPS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THAT/S A BIT TOO MUCH DETAIL TO
WORRY ABOUT JUST YET. WILL NOT TOUCH THE DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ONWARD...BUT THERE ARE CERTAINLY QUESTION MARKS HERE PER THE
ABOVE. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY BY MONDAY...AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY/MONDAY (NOTING THAT FROPA TIMING
MAKES THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY RATHER TRICKY). TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE STRONGLY THAN ADVERTISED ON TUESDAY IF THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 423 AM/

YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH FAR SRN LAKE
HURON THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE
TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY WHILE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR AND SLACKENING WINDS ARRIVING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
NEARSHORE ZONES...SPECIFICALLY PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT LATE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 722 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING...MOST LIKELY TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING...SO ANTICIPATE
AMENDMENTS.

RAINFALL WILL PERSIST AT APN THIS MORNING...END AT TVC AND DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT IT WILL REACH PLN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE EAST.
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL STEADILY ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO SHOWERY CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DOMINATED
BY MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIP LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES TOWARD MORNING.

AJS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
453 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
291200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
453 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RECENT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED RIVER AND
LOWLAND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

IN ADDITION...THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AND THE MANISTEE RIVER
NEAR SHERMAN WILL REMAIN IN OR RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE SEE
ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RECENT RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED RIVER AND LOWLAND FLOODING
THROUGH SATURDAY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.

THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AND THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN
WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS PLEASE RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS...AS WELL ANY HIGH WATER
OR FLOODING PROBLEMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
659 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE FREDERIC           44.85N 84.65W
04/28/2011  M1.46 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24 HOUR TOTAL THROUGH 6 AM.

&&

JARNOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
923 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE OMER               44.02N 83.81W
04/28/2011  M1.05 INCH       ARENAC             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HR TOTAL

&&

FF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
926 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LUPTON                  44.43N 84.02W
04/28/2011  M1.23 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL

&&

FF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HESSEL                  46.01N 84.42W
04/28/2011  M1.40 INCH       MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL

&&

FF