Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Amarillo, TX

489 
WWUS54 KAMA 290321
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKC007-139-290345-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-110629T0345Z/
TEXAS OK-BEAVER OK-
1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BEAVER AND TEXAS COUNTIES...

AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TURPIN TO BAKER TO GOODWELL...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LIBERAL TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUYMON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

AT 945 PM CDT...THE OKLAHOMA MESONET STATION LOCATED 1 MILE WEST OF 
HOOKER OKLAHOMA REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3694 10030 3677 10057 3650 10114 3656 10201
      3701 10125 3700 10097
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 276DEG 31KT 3693 10086 3682 10104
          3656 10154

$$

KJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
735 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS EVENING AND ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WORKING EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST
NM/SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST...IMPACTING
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. LAPS AND RUC
ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG
THANKS TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. CAPPING IS
ACTUALLY FAIRLY WEAK /MUCH WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY/ ESPECIALLY IN THESE
NORTHERN AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...SO
BELIEVE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY WORK EAST/SOUTHEAST.
SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...HRRR...4 KM WRF-
NMM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE LLJ WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION HELPING TO FEED THE CONVECTION. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE
ON MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT WITH TIME AS THEY ROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE AND WORK ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CO TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
CWA...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT/PROPAGATION.
DRUG POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EAST CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
COMBINATION OF MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
35 KTS. HIGH-BASED NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...A LARGE WILDFIRE IS BURNING NEAR MULESHOE WITH
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE SMOKE PLUME STREAMING NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE IN THE HEREFORD AND VEGA AREAS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
WARRANT CB REMARKS BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE GUYMON AND
DALHART TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THIS WAY WITH THE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. STORMS ARE BEING FUELED BY SUBTROPICAL
PLUME OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WHICH IS ROTATING NORTHEAST
AROUND UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS HIGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN IT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE PANHANDLES DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AT TIMES...
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IF THE
TIMING IS RIGHT.

DID CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF STAYING ABOVE THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DID CUT TEMPERATURES A BIT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS. CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL RIGHT NOW FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING...THERFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-291100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
818 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
759 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ001-002-290200-
CIMARRON OK-TEXAS OK-
759 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR TEXAS AND CIMARRON
COUNTIES.

AT 758 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEYES...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOISE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
856 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

OKZ001-002-290300-
CIMARRON OK-TEXAS OK-
856 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR TEXAS AND CIMARRON
COUNTIES.

AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
12 MILES NORTHEAST OF EVA TO 9 MILES WEST OF EVA TO 12 MILES WEST OF
GRIGGS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELKHART
TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELKHART TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOISE
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.