Red Flag Warning 57, NWS Amarillo, TX

630 
WWUS84 KAMA 242031
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
231 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011

OKZ001-TXZ001-006-250000-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0057.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
CIMARRON-DALLAM-HARTLEY-
231 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

* AFFECTED AREA: IN OKLAHOMA...CIMARRON. IN TEXAS...DALLAM... 
  HARTLEY.

* 20 FOOT WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. 

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE 
  FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT. 

* TIMING: RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...AND A FIRE DANGER RATING OF HIGH OR
HIGHER WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$

SCHNEIDER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

190 
WWUS84 KAMA 242334
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011


OKZ001-TXZ001-006-250045-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0057.000000T0000Z-111125T0000Z/
CIMARRON-DALLAM-HARTLEY-
534 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY SUNSET...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 6 PM CST.

$$

JOHNSON

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1125 PM CST WED NOV 23 2011

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL
SITES WITH WINDS 1000-2000 FT AGL APPROACHING 40 KTS THROUGH 15Z...
PARTICULARLY AT KDHT AND KGUY...AND AGAIN AFTER 00Z...BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 15-17Z WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS AT KAMA AND NEAR 40 KTS AT KDHT AND KGUY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 408 PM CST WED NOV 23 2011/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THANKSGIVING DAY. IT APPEARS BASED ON THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS...THE STRONGEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES BY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY...HOWEVER WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK. DID NOT CHANGE POP CONFIGURATION
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN
BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AS PRECIP SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY. LEFT POPS
ALONE FRIDAY BUT ADJUSTED PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. RETAINED POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY
EVENING BUT SHIFTED POPS TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY
NIGHT. 700 MB GRADIENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
DRIER AND MODERATING TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND THE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
THANKSGIVING DAY...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLES AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CST
UNTIL 6 PM CST FOR THESE AREAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES AND THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY...NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. SATURDAY
MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 20 PERCENT EXPECTED.
DESPITE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST TO SEE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO...THE 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 20 MPH OR HIGHER.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

&&

17/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
351 PM CST WED NOV 23 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
351 PM CST WED NOV 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THURSDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLES ON THANKSGIVING DAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 6 PM CST.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY
AS NORTH WINDS AROUND 35 MILES AN HOUR DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY...AND FOR
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER