Red Flag Warning 50, NWS Amarillo, TX

202 
WWUS84 KAMA 302040
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001-002-006-010300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110701T0300Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HARTLEY-
340 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: IN OKLAHOMA...CIMARRON...TEXAS...BEAVER. IN 
  TEXAS...DALLAM...SHERMAN...HARTLEY. 

* WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY: RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 15
  PERCENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
  INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RATING
WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 14Z THURSDAY AND 02Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AFTER 02Z
FRIDAY AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS. WILL REMOVE THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARKS IN ALL THREE TAF SITES SINCE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE WIND AND THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 40 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011/

UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AS WINDS HAVE
DECREASED BELOW 20 MPH AND RH/S WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011/

AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THURSDAY TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARKS IN
FOR NOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z THURSDAY...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED
IF WINDS REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z THURSDAY TO NEAR 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT 12Z...THE
CENTER OF THE 500MB HIGH WAS JUST SOUTH OF AMA...LEAVING THE REGION
WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION.

TOMORROW WILL ALMOST BE A COOKIE CUTTER DAY OF TODAY...WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SLIDING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. AS
A RESULT...THE HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES...AS OPPOSED TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY...AND THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO CHANGE...EVER
SO SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST...LEAVING
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN RIDGE. AS A RESULT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
EASTERLY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES. AS PROMISING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SOUNDS...WITH LACK
OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE OR MESOSCALE LIFT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
NOT BE RULED OUT. STILL TO SMALL OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE NEXT CHANGE COMES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS IN THE 4 CORNERS REGION...THOUGH NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO FOR
THE PANHANDLE REGION TO BE IN THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THUS
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE REGION. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH HAS LIGHTER WINDS...WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE UNCERTAIN. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS POINT. MORE OF THE SAME ON FRIDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COULD INCREASE...THOUGH
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL INTO THE 90S AND EVEN NEAR
100...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-301100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
921 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER