Red Flag Warning 32, NWS Amarillo, TX

715 
WWUS84 KAMA 201653
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ011-012-017-210200-
/O.EXA.KAMA.FW.W.0032.110520T1700Z-110521T0200Z/
OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* AFFECTED AREA: IN TEXAS...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

* WIND: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 12 
  PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. 

* TIMING: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RATING
WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

TXZ016-210200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0032.110520T1700Z-110521T0200Z/
DEAF SMITH-
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* AFFECTED AREA: IN TEXAS...DEAF SMITH.

* WIND: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 8 TO 12 PERCENT
  CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEAF SMITH COUNTY.

* TIMING: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 
  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RATING
WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JACKSON

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1229 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.UPDATE...
REVISED FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS...WINDS...SKY COVER
AND TO CONVERT TO AREAL QUALIFITER POPS FOR ERN ZONES. IT APPEARS THE
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WWD THRU ERN ZONES AND IS HEADED WWD STILL. ISOLD
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DVLPG AS OF THIS WRITING IN ERN ZONES. UPDATED PUBLIC
PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED INTO THE EASTERN TWO STACKS OF COUNTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND MAY APPROACH THE GUY TAF SITE. STILL THINK
THE BEST SHOT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY NO CB REMARKS. W TO NW WINDS HAVE ALL READY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE TAFS.
WINDS SHOULD COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESP AT DHT/AMA. ONLY OTHER CHANGE
06Z TAFS WAS TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW MAY BE
LURKING NEARBY. VFR FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS...

TAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

UPDATE...
RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO OCCUR SINCE
CONDITIONS ARE BELOW CRITERIA NOW. APPROPRIATE FIRE WX PRODUCTS WILL
BE SENT OUT SHORTLY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

UPDATE...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED BACK INTO ERN SECTIONS OF TX AND OK PNHDLS
WITH TSTMS DVLPG JUST N AND E OF OUR FCST AREA...CLOSE ENUF TO
WARRANT A CONCERN THAT ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM IN OUR ERN ZONES LATER
TNGT AND EARLY FRI MORNING AS PER LATEST 18Z SHORT RANGE MODELS.
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR THIS AREA FOR REST OF TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9 PM CDT.

UPDATED FIRST PERIOD GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE TX/OK STATE LINE...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN OK ATTM. DRYLINE WILL RETREAT
WWD TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH THE AMA/GUY TERMINALS.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. LEANED TOWARDS MORE THE NAM SOLUTION IN
BRINGING A WEAK BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FLIPPING TO THE NW. SW WINDS HOWEVER WILL RESUME BY 14Z/15Z ON
FRIDAY WILL SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES...

TAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON CENTER ON WINDS...RAIN CHANCES...
AND FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTERNOON LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW LOCATED
IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A DRYLINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS
PUSHED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING EAST OF THE DRYLINE LED TO A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO
25 MPH WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HOVER BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES
LATER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE CAN BE AN
OUTSIDE SHOT FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WHERE MOISTURE POOLS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DEPICT AN INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING BUT ALSO DO NOT DEPICT A LOT OF INSTABILITY. THE NAM12 IS AN
OUTLIER WRT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES
AND THUS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL. THINKING THE
DRYLINE WILL NOT RETREAT TOO FAR TO THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO WYOMING FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEFORE IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE DRYLINE
WILL POSITION ITSELF IN OKLAHOMA...LEAVING THE PANHANDLES HIGH AND
DRY. THE GFS CONTINUES ITS HIGH BIAS ON WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY...SO
LEANED TOWARD THE MET MOS WHERE WINDS WERE AROUND 10 MPH LIGHTER.
THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO STAY EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...
KEEPING THE PANHANDLES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A DRY AND WARM WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE FROM THE WEST COAST NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...WHICH MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP MENTION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND FEEL THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON DROPPED TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT...SO ITS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH 9 PM.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS CAN STILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
851 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-201100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
851 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM...DRY...AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
153 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ015-020-200745-
WHEELER TX-COLLINGSWORTH TX-
153 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 AM CDT FOR COLLINGSWORTH AND
WHEELER COUNTIES.

AT 149 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DOZIER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

KB