Freeze Warning 3, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVELY MOVG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH LEFTOVER WEATHER PHRASING IN UPCOMING ZONE
PCKG. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIMINISH TNGT WHICH
SHOULD PAVE THE WAY FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS OK PNHDL AS WELL AS
PARTS OF NRN AND WRN TX PNHDL. HAVE CONVERTED FRZ WATCH TO A FRZ
WARNING FOR THOSE COUNTIES AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A FROST ADVISORY
ACROSS REST OF TX PNHDL OUTSIDE THE FRZ WARNING. IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL IN SOME AREAS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A FREEZE OCCURS AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT SW LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUES...AND THIS
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION MAY SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE. DECIDED
TO ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE GROWING
SEASON AND A LIGHT FREEZE COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN FREEZE
WARNING AREA.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED DRY WX SEEN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THRU NEXT
MONDAY. WARMER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
PUSH THRU THE PNHDLS WED NIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH OTHER
THAN PROVIDE A WIND SHIFT. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK DRYLINE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
MODELS HINT AT SOME TSTMS BREAKING OUT E OF THAT FEATURE...MAINLY IN
OK. THEREFORE... DUE TO CONCERNS ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE...CAPPING
INVERSION STRENGTH...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSTMS DVLPG THIS FAR
OUT...HAVE RETAINED A DRY FCST FOR THAT DAY AS INHERITED.

MDEIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH NEXT WRN US
TROF WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF MODEL
DISCREPANCIES THIS FAR OUT IN THE OVERALL UA PATTERN...HAVE CONTINUED
THE THEME OF PREVIOUS FCST PCKG WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WX.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS SW WINDS INCREASE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL TO BELOW 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AS SW WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY AND HUMIDITIES
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  70  40  77  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  31  73  39  76  42 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              27  71  37  77  39 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  73  44  79  46 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              31  71  38  78  42 /   5   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  32  70  38  78  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               34  72  41  78  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 26  71  34  77  39 /   5   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  31  73  39  78  41 /   5   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                31  70  37  78  42 /   5   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                31  71  40  76  42 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  72  41  77  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                34  72  41  78  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              35  73  42  79  47 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

99/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM CDT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
ALL OF THE PANHANDLES DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES ON
TUESDAY...AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.

KB