Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTENSIFY...PUSHING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS POWERFUL STORM
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO JAMES BAY CANADA BY SUNDAY...BRINGING
BRISK WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. LATE SUNDAY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION NOW...AND
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
ADJUSTING WEATHER TO CONTINUE PUSHING THUNDER EAST...AND EXIT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN A FEW HOURS. MORE STRATIFORM RAINS COVER
THE REST OF THE REGION...TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY...SO KEEPING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING.  FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IF ANY.

THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER...BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

PREV AFD BELOW...

LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING EAST AND
NORTH...WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. DID NOT FEEL
FLOOD POTENTIAL WAS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH...BUT LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. MID AND
UPPER VORTICITY ASSOCIATE WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SYSTEM
WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP SHEAR...STILL VERY ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE OR WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE...AS WE ARE STILL IN A
SLIGHT RISK PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. VERY TIGHT GRADIENT
OF BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE HEADING EAST
AND NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FORCING AS
WELL...SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED SEVERE/FLOOD THREAT.

SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE BREAKS INT HE CLOUDS WORKING
EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG UPPER IMPULSE CUTS OFF IN CANADA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND
THE SURFACE FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY PRODUCING A RESPECTABLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST...AND BREEZY TO WINDY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. SOME LEAVES ARE STILL ON TREES AND
GROUND IS WET...SO EVEN IF WINDS ARE BORDERLINE...WET GROUND AND
LEAVES ON TREES COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. SOME
PERIODS OF BREAKS OF SUN TOMORROW...ALONG WITH THE WINDS SHOULD
AID IN GOOD MIXING TOMORROW. SO...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH
THE MOST SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH THE MOST COOLING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES...WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS COULD SPREAD
EAST INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
STILL...CYCLONIC DEEP FLOW COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...THE MOST CLEARING
SHOULD BE IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD...SO LOWS
IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
50S TO LOWER/MID 60S...WITH AGAIN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
GOOD MIXING.

BROAD CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS LESS OF A
MOISTURE SOURCE...BUT UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK RESPECTABLE...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS MONDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE MON
NT...AND ESP TUE. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS MON NT...TRENDING TO
CHC FOR TUE. EXPECT TEMPS MON NT/TUE AM TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR TUE
MAXES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED BLEND OF 18Z HPC AND 12Z GMOS...WITH
60-65 IN VALLEYS...AND 50-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT...MUCH
COOLER MAXES WOULD OCCUR...WITH EVEN VALLEY REGIONS HOLDING IN THE
50S...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY REACHING 45-50.

TUE NT-THU...12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...ESP THE ECMWF...WHICH NO LONGER PHASES SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THEM
SEPARATE...AND THUS NOT EVOLVING INTO A DEEP CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTER
AND STRONG SFC LOW. THIS IDEA IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE 12Z/GFS. ONLY
THE 12Z/GEM DEVELOPS A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALBEIT FURTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THE IDEA
OF SUCH A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...AS PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT THE TROUGH MAY STILL NOT BE SAMPLED VERY
WELL...LEAVING SOME ROOM THAT FUTURE SOLUTIONS COULD TREND BACK
TOWARD A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM. SO...HAVE KEPT CHC TO LIKELY
POPS...HIGHEST FOR TUE NT THROUGH WED...FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
DECREASING POPS FOR WED NT INTO THU. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS...WITH
DAYTIME MAXES MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WED...AND ONLY IN THE
50S THU...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THU NT-FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL INFLUENCE REGION...AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER COOL...BUT NOT NECESSARILY WET. FOR MAX
TEMPS...EXPECT MAINLY 50S FOR MAXES...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH FRI MAXES COULD BE EVEN COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY
50-55 IN VALLEYS...GIVEN FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -4
TO -7 C RANGE. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITHIN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MARGINAL VFR WILL BE ABOUT AS BAD AS IT GETS CONCERNING CLOUDS AND
CIG.  PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WIND SHEAR AFTER SUNDOWN AS LOW
PRESSURE TIGHTENS ON ITS CONTINUING SLOW TRIP NORTH UP THROUGH
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT...
AND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE AFTER DAYBREAK.  THUS...WE HAVE
LLWS FOR THE 22Z TO 12Z PERIOD.  MORE OF AN ISSUE WILL BE THE
SURFACE WINDS ON SATURDAY...AS GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
EB COMMON.  IN THE MEANTIME...INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING AND THUNDER RUMBLES WITH ANY SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM-SUN...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN NGT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -RA/-SHRA
MON-MON NGT...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTENSIFY...PUSHING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS POWERFUL STORM
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO JAMES BAY CANADA BY SUNDAY...BRINGING
BRISK WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. LATE SUNDAY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TOMORROW NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOMORROW AND SUNDAY
WILL BE 45 TO 65 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 MPH TOMORROW NIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND A SECOND AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
EVENING.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE
ISSUES...PARTICULARLY WHERE LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS BLOCK STORM
DRAINS. WHILE RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SOME
SMALL STREAMS MAY REACH BANKFULL. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ESPECIALLY
FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CAN EXPECT RISES
OF 3 TO 5 FEET...ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS... SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN A THIRD OF AN INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LIGHTER...MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038-042-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

NYZ039>041-047>053-058>061-063>066-083-151100-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-
EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
727 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND CAPITAL DISTRICT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SUNDAY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST HIGHER THAN 45
MPH. IF STRONGER WIND GUSTS OCCUR...A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ032-033-038-042-082-151100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN FULTON-
727 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ043-054-084-VTZ013>015-151100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
727 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE NORTHERN TACONICS OF NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SUNDAY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST HIGHER THAN 45
MPH. IF STRONGER WIND GUSTS OCCUR...A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.