Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER INTO THE MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #795 REMAINS IN EFFECT 9 PM. IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION WITH
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. ONCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH STILL HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH.

AS OF 245 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #795 REMAIN IN EFFECT.
UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT BREAK IN CONVECTION. NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #795 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
UNTIL 01Z/9 PM EDT. DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LINE OF
CONVECTION. SHOULD GET A BIT OF BREAK BETWEEN THIS ROUND OF SEVERE
BEFORE WE GET GOING AHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 10 AM EDT...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY LOOKS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
MAX AND SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMALS ADVECTION. THE LATEST NAM
SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2C
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK PARK. WE HAVE HAD A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE HAVE
HAVE RETOOLED THE POP AND WX TRENDS TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

OUR HIRES WRF BASE REF PRODUCT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS AT THIS POINT...AND IT SHOWS A RATHER INTENSE LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMING TOWARDS 20Z...AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BY
0100Z.

THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 24 KTS
NOW...BUT WE EXPECT THE DEEP SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH A MULTICELL LINE...AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH MLCAPE/SBCAPES GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/G OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALL SHOWS H850-500 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8
C/KM WITH A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 10.3 KFT. THERE IS LOW-LEVEL
VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH THE STRONG CYCLONICALLY
CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING LATER TODAY WE
BELIEVE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND...WITH SOME HAIL.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA SEVERE WEATHER INDEX CAME OUT WITH A MAJOR
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL POINT INDEX
FROM PAST COMET RESEARCH.

HERE ARE THE PARAMETERS INPUTTED:
CAPE = 1500 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WINDS = 65
EHI = 1.0
SRH (0-3 KM) = 150 (M/S)2
STORM SPEED = 30 KTS

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE TRENDS. THE ONE LIMITER
ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF TODAYS CONVECTION WOULD BE THE CLOUD COVER.
THERE BREAKS IN THESE BANDS...AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME
MORE IMPRESSIVE BY THE MID PM...INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS IN ON MONDAY....HOWEVER
ALOFT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS RISE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT TOO...DRY BUT COOL WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE ENERGY RIDES OVER TOP THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
AND DIGS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOW ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING THE TRACK OF IRENE. HAVE FAVOR GUIDANCE FROM HPC FOR
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #795
REMAINS IN EFFECT 9 PM. IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE. ONCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
STILL HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH...HOWEVER MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW AT KALB WILL
PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG.

ONCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH STILL HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH SO CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUE-WED...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY AM MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED WITH THE STORMS TODAY. RADAR HAS
ESTIMATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OFTEH AREA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OVER THE SAME AREA WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WETHER MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

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