Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT...REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EVEN GREATER NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SO HAVE RAISED
THE POPS THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING TO CATEGORICAL...
AND LOWERED POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO CHANCE LEVELS FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NEW YORK ZONES...SO HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.

****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
AS OF 445 PM...LOTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CENTRAL NY WHICH HAVE
MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBANY COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA)...BUT THEY WEAKEN AS THEY DO SO AS THEY RUN INTO
THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE CWA. THE CELLS HAVE BEEN OVER CENTRAL
NY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF BECOMING
SEVERE...SO SEVERE CONVECTION NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE ALBANY
CWA FOR THIS EVENING.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THEN GRADUALLY REDUCE THE POPS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND 40 PERCENT BY
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION SINCE WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT BE CROSSING
THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING...SO A 40 TO
50 PERCENT POP HAS BEEN FORECAST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS
TROF MOVES THROUGH. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL FINALLY BE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN...AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
SUNDAY AS A LAGGING SURFACE TROF AND A SHALLOW POOL OF MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL TAKE HOLD FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOS GUIDANCE.  THE WORK WEEK STARTS OFF HIGH AND DRY...BUT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ALSO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING UPON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AGAIN...AND THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S
SHOWING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL
HIGHS AT ALBANY IN VERY LATE JUNE ARE IN THE LOWER 80S...AND LOWS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE KGFL/KALB/POU SITES REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A MARITIME AIR MASS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALOFT...A SLOW MOVING TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH THE LOW STRATUS AT KGFL/KALB...WITH
SOME POSSIBLE REDUCTION TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KPOU WHICH IS
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE TRUE MARINE AIR NEAR THE COAST. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
BKN-OVC CIGS SHOULD REMAIN. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FREQUENCY OF THUNDER WILL DEPEND ON
IF ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 6 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 5-8 KT...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE...VFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...
THEN ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 55 AND 70 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND BECOMING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN FINALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN MAINLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM