Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Albany, NY

335 
WWUS51 KALY 262136
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYC039-262146-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110526T2145Z/
GREENE NY-
536 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4243 7426 4245 7436 4250 7443 4255 7446
      4267 7441 4271 7419 4252 7406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 235DEG 22KT 4254 7422

$$

NYC001-095-262145-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110526T2145Z/
SCHOHARIE NY-ALBANY NY-
536 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALBANY AND EAST CENTRAL SCHOHARIE COUNTIES...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HAWVERSVILLE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COBLESKILL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SOUTH BERNE...WEST BERNE...SNYDERS CORNERS AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  GALLUPVILLE BY 545 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 7426 4245 7436 4250 7443 4255 7446
      4267 7441 4271 7419 4252 7406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 235DEG 22KT 4254 7422

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD
IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH A
LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO MEMORIAL
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM...TORNADO WATCH 382 CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK...EXCLUDING COLUMBIA AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME.

AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...THESE SUBTLE SURFACE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH ROBUST INSTABILITY OF 1500-3000 AND DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT WILL LEAD TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
COVERAGE OF STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND. INITIALLY CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATE
INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
SEVERE CONVECTION REACHING THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS EAST LATER
THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...DISCRETE CELLS WITH SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES WILL BE LIKELY. SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS FOR POTENTIAL
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MORE UBIQUITOUS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY START TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD BE GRADUAL. ALSO...THE
MODE EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL
SEVERE/TORNADO WATCH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA.
COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FORCING FROM
SUBTLE SURFACE FEATURES WEAKEN IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM...ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY SHAPING UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THURSDAY...WITH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AND CAPITAL REGION EXPECTED TO BE TARGETED. THE
REASON IS 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO ACTUALLY SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
INSTABILITY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
AS THE OVERALL AIR MASS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST SBCAPE COULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. THE NAM HAS POCKETS
OF HIGHER VALUES OF CAPE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MODELS SEEM
OVERDONE. NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SBCAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-45 KT. SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL BE
NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS
QUEBEC...AND THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER TROF WILL BE
GETTING SHEARED AS IS ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO FIRE CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE MODE COULD BE SUPERCELLS AND BOWS AGAIN GIVEN
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN HWO. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED WITHIN CONVECTION.

A LOT DEPENDS ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A DIMINISHING TREND AT LEAST TOWARDS LATE EVENING. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. STILL WARM...HUMID AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL EXIST SO ANY FORCING WILL BE SUBTLE AND TIED TO REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OR TERRAIN HEATING DIFFERENTIALS. WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS WITH CHANCE FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY NORTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST THOUGH...AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING AND THERE COULD BE A CAP DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GONE MOSTLY WITH HPC GUIDANCE. HPC HAS REGION AT EASTERN
END OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW NEAR THE IA/WI/IL
BORDER. GFS BRINGS THETAE VALUES APPROACHING 350 DEG K INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ECMWF MORE CONSERVATIVE
WITH VALUES OF 335. SFC BASED CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG JUST
SOUTH OF FCST AREA SUNDAY...EXCEED 2300 J/KG IN NORTHWESTERN
CT MONDAY...AND EXCEED 3500 J/KG JUST WEST OF HERKIMER CO ON
TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA
HIGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A LOW MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
A HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT LATER
ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HAVE GONE TO A MORE GENERIC DIURNAL/UNSTABLE APPROACH FOR
POPS...WITH NO POP/SLIGHT CHC DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
CHARACTERISTIC OF AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DUE TO VERY HIGH
PWAT VALUES...MOSTLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES...HAVE GONE TO
MODERATE SHOWER INTENSITY THRU THE PERIOD.

HUMIDITY GETS OPPRESSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS STARTING
MONDAY...APPARENT TEMPS APPROACH 90 MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROVIDES RELIEF FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WEST OF
KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH AND WEST OF KGFL...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LESS LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. WE WILL CONTINUE A VCSH AT KGFL FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR BOTH KGFL AND KALB THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS A MCS MAY AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING.
WILL BACK OFF ON THE PRECIP FOR LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MVFR
OR EVEN IFR MAY RESULT IN FOG AND MIST. WILL KEEP THE MORNING DRY
AT THIS TIME WITH A SCT040CB LATER IN THE MORNING AS SOLAR HEATING
CAUSES CU BUILDUPS STARTING AROUND 15Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S/SE AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT
AT 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER 06Z...THEN PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 12Z TO AROUND
8 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA MOSTLY
AFTERNOONS AND EVES WITH PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHTS.
MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. THE AREA FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WETTING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN AREAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A WARM FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS COULD RECEIVE
MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS TODAY INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON POORLY DRAINED
LOW LYING AREAS WITH EVEN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. RAPID RISES ARE LIKELY ON SMALLER STREAMS WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN
FALLS...WITH VERY LITTLE RESPONSE ON THE LARGE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

HOT AND DRIER WEATHER MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY....WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY ELEVATED FLOWS TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

FLOODING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE IN
BURLINGTON VERMONT FOR DETAILS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK/JPV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-059-063-064-082>084-271100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
407 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 382 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT...THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...HAIL STONES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME
OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY YIELD POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO
45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL STONES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO
40 MPH.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTES...ALBANY...FULTON...GREENE...HAMILTON...HERKIMER...
MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...
ULSTER...WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ060-061-065-066-VTZ013>015-271100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
407 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...COLUMBIA AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...HAIL
STONES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY YIELD POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO
45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL STONES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO
40 MPH.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             CARLISLE                42.76N 74.45W
05/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       SCHOHARIE          NY   PUBLIC

&&

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ040-041-048>050-262115-
MONTGOMERY NY-WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
441 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  NORTHERN SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLENVILLE...OR ABOUT 7
MILES EAST OF AMSTERDAM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MILTON...BALLSTON SPA AND ROCK CITY FALLS BY 455 PM EDT
SARATOGA SPRINGS BY 505 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4290 7416 4324 7378 4323 7376 4325 7373
      4327 7374 4315 7358 4313 7359 4310 7357
      4307 7358 4284 7406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 229DEG 34KT 4294 7401

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ047-048-051-052-262115-
SCHOHARIE NY-WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-
EASTERN ALBANY NY-
445 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WESTERN SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  NORTHWEST ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH BLENHEIM...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF
ROXBURY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BREAKABEEN AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTONVILLE BY 450 PM EDT
MIDDLEBURGH BY 455 PM EDT
SCHOHARIE BY 500 PM EDT
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERNE BY 505 PM EDT
DUANESBURG...DELANSON AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTAMONT BY 510 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4283 7419 4270 7395 4235 7446 4246 7461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 222DEG 47KT 4250 7444

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ033-042-262115-
HAMILTON NY-NORTHERN WARREN NY-
445 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
9 MILES WEST OF NORTH CREEK...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDIAN
LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHRISTIAN HILL AND NORTH RIVER BY 450 PM EDT
NORTHWEST OF BYRNES CORNERS BY 455 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4381 7411 4381 7407 4380 7404 4378 7404
      4377 7405 4375 7405 4376 7394 4376 7388
      4351 7413 4365 7435 4383 7415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 225DEG 35KT 4373 7412

JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             LAKE EATON CAMPGROUND   43.99N 74.47W
05/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       HAMILTON           NY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

0430 PM     HAIL             LONG LAKE               43.97N 74.42W
05/26/2011  M1.25 INCH       HAMILTON           NY   PUBLIC

0447 PM     HAIL             NORTH BLENHEIM          42.47N 74.44W
05/26/2011  M0.75 INCH       SCHOHARIE          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ032-262115-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-
453 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND PENNY SIZE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCKEEVER...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLD
FORGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NICKS LAKE CAMPGROUND BY 500 PM EDT
OLD FORGE BY 505 PM EDT
ALGER ISLAND PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 510 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4384 7483 4367 7481 4352 7510 4354 7511
      4367 7512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 239DEG 33KT 4365 7508

JPV