Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Albany, NY

563 
WWUS51 KALY 292108
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYC021-115-292118-
/O.CAN.KALY.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-110929T2115Z/
WASHINGTON NY-COLUMBIA NY-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN COLUMBIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

LAT...LON 4280 7299 4277 7299 4273 7298 4273 7301
      4271 7301 4270 7298 4238 7303 4238 7306
      4237 7306 4232 7318 4266 7331 4288 7341
      4304 7302 4290 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 246DEG 22KT 4290 7317 4272 7316
          4245 7309

$$

MAC003-NYC083-VTC003-292115-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0189.000000T0000Z-110929T2115Z/
BENNINGTON VT-BERKSHIRE MA-RENSSELAER NY-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RENSSELAER...NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN
BENNINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BENNINGTON TO BLACKINTON TO HINSDALE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BENNINGTON TO NORTH ADAMS TO 8 MILES EAST OF
PITTSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTH ADAMS STATE COLLEGE ATHLETIC FIELD...BRIGGSVILLE...
  HOUGHTONVILLE AND WEST SUMMIT BY 515 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

LAT...LON 4280 7299 4277 7299 4273 7298 4273 7301
      4271 7301 4270 7298 4238 7303 4238 7306
      4237 7306 4232 7318 4266 7331 4288 7341
      4304 7302 4290 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 246DEG 22KT 4290 7317 4272 7316
          4245 7309

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
242 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY TO NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2PM EDT...BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
THE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO HAVE LOWERED THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSIONS...
AS OF 10AM...THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.  THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN END IN CONNECTICUT. HAVE MADE
SOME MORE ADJUSTEMENTS ON POP...WX...AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. HAVE ALSO SPLIT AND ADJUSTED THE QPF GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON USING THE NAM12 AS A STARTING POINT...TO REFLECT RELATIVELY
LIGHT PRECIP EARLY AND HEAVIER PRECIP LATER ON.

AS OF 845 AM...A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD WITH JUST A BIT OF MOVEMENT TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CAPITAL REGION ALONG WITH THE
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BAND WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. WX AND POP GRIDS LOOK GOOD. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS.

AS OF 645 AM...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SWATH OF
SHOWERS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND DOWNPOURS NOW
SLICING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA JUST NOT ENTERING
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. HEAVIEST ECHOES HAVE
BEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO COLUMBIA INTO DUTCHESS
COUNTIES OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS AREA OF RAIN MAY SLOW ITS
PROGRESS OR EVEN RE-DEVELOP AS THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE ONLY
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

AS OF 400 AM...AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA STARTING TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO OUR REGION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
ENTIRE BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE THE
SHOWERS/DOWNPOURS FIRST.

MOISTURE STILL QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PWATS OF +1 TO
+2 STDEV OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW STARTS TO MIGRATE
EAST IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROF WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WEST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. ALSO ADDED
HERKIMER COUNTY TO THE WATCH DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH...RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE
PERSISTENT AND/OR TRAINING DOWNPOURS OCCUR.

THERE IS ALSO A NONZERO THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THE MAIN INHIBITING
FACTOR IS LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH TALL-SKINNY CAPE SO THAT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN
MOST CASES. SOME LINEAR AND OR BRIEFLY ROTATING CELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SPIN-UPS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THREAT IS
RATHER LOW. STILL...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL CELLS
THAT MAY SHOW ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL. IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HUMID...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE LAST DAY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR A WHILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. WILL TAPER DOWN POPS TO CHANCE BY MID EVENING...THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT STILL AROUND
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND A DEEP TROF FORMS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEST OF OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY AS THE TROF
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING
THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OFF THE CATSKILLS MAY HELP BOOST TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S
MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FOR SATURDAY...AS
MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE DEEP TROF
FORMING A CLOSED LOW. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...SATURDAY COULD FEATURE WET AND COOL CONDITIONS. THE GFS/GGEM
HAVE THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EASTERN PA/NJ...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR AND EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC TO BRING RAIN INTO OUR
AREA AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NAM/ECMWF
SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT FORMS BUT THE ECMWF STILL
PRODUCES RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER. WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDIER SKIES NOW EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION INTO MONDAY...THEN FINALLY DEPART MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z
NAM KEPT THE UPPER LOW/TROF MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAD THE REGION IN
DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE 06Z NAM SHOWS
IT TO BE MORE SIMILAR WITH THE SLOW MOVING GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

IN GENERAL HAVE DELAYED THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED TO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE MODELS. GENERALLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DECREASING TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY ON MONDAY. IT IS EVEN COLD ENOUGH DURING THE
PERIOD WHEN PCPN IS POSSIBLE T INCLUDE THE MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

AFTER THAT...A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT QUITE CHILLY.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY
MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGHS MONDAY MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  WITH THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY STILL NOT WELL KNOWN AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A CB
APPENDAGE AS OPPOSED TO A TSRA OR VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HAVE GENERALLY ALLOWED FOR MVFR VSBYS WITHIN ANY
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...CIGS WILL LIKELY STILL BE MVFR...ESP
FOR KALB/KGFL.  ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT
KALB THIS AFTN...WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF AT ALL TERMINALS BY THIS
EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...ENDING THE
THREAT FOR PRECIP AND REMOVING MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SCT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...KGFL MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WIND SHOULD KEEP UP AT
KALB/KPOU ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS TO PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM OCCURRING
AT THOSE SITES.

ON FRIDAY...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KGFL...JUST SOME SCT
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-FRI NGT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SAT NGT...CHC MVFR/IFR -SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER NEW ENGLAND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 65 TO 80 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...RISING TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 45 TO 55 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM. A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING
OF STREAMS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS CONTINUES FROM SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWN
POURS OVER LIMITED AREAS. THIS AREA HAS HAD SEVERAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY SO THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND STREAM FLOWS
ARE HIGH.

SEVERAL OF THE SMALLER RIVERS CAME CLOSE TO OR EVEN OVER FLOOD
STAGE...THE HEADWATERS OF THE ESOPUS CAME WITHIN INCHES OF ITS
FLOOD STAGE ABOVE ASHOKAN RESERVOIR WHILE RONDOUT CREEK WENT A
FEW INCHES OVER THIS AFTERNOON. A SHARP BURST OF RAIN IN EASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY CAUSED THE WEST BRANCH OF THE FARMINGTON RIVER
TO GO OVER FLOOD UPSTREAM OF COLEBROOK LAKE. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALSO RESULTED IN THE HUDSON ESTUARY GOING SLIGHTLY OVER
FLOOD AT POUGHKEEPSIE.

AVERAGE AREAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE WHERE MORE PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE THE FLOOD WATCH AREA DUE
TO LESS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE AREA
TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN FOR FRIDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WITH A
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038-040-047>052-
     058-059-063-064.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCK/JPV
NEAR TERM...RCK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV/RCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
913 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

MAZ001-NYZ032-033-039-041>043-053-054-082>084-VTZ013>015-301100-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN FULTON-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-NORTHERN FULTON-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
913 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...AND CENTRAL TACONICS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...AND
FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ038-040-047>052-301100-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-MONTGOMERY-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
913 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NYZ058-059-063-064-301100-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
913 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR GREENE AND ULSTER COUNTIES
IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...AND HAIL
LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ060-061-065-066-301100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
913 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND...AND COLUMBIA AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...AND HAIL
LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
227 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

MAZ001-025-NYZ053-054-060-061-291915-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
227 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  EXTREME WESTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SOUTHEAST RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY
RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PHILMONT...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PHILMONT BY 235 PM EDT
AUSTERLITZ AND CHATHAM BY 255 PM EDT
NEW LEBANON BY 315 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4255 7355 4246 7328 4210 7360 4218 7372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 206DEG 19KT 4220 7362

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYZ064>066-291945-
EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-
250 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SOUTHEAST ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY
RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIGHLAND...OR ABOUT OVER
POUGHKEEPSIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
POUGHKEEPSIE BY 255 PM EDT
FAIRVIEW BY 300 PM EDT
HYDE PARK BY 305 PM EDT
PLEASANT VALLEY BY 310 PM EDT
STAATSBURG BY 315 PM EDT
STANFORDVILLE BY 335 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4159 7397 4167 7407 4198 7386 4184 7362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 218DEG 18KT 4170 7396

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYZ033-039-082-292015-
HAMILTON NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
327 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SOUTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
  NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY
RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CAROGA LAKE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GLOVERSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SACANDAGA CAMPGROUND BY 415 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4348 7449 4332 7415 4308 7444 4314 7460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 208DEG 14KT 4318 7446

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
341 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYZ060-061-292030-
WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
341 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 338 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY
RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF ANCRAM...OR ABOUT 10
MILES EAST OF SAUGERTIES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LIVINGSTON BY 350 PM EDT
CLAVERACK BY 400 PM EDT
PHILMONT BY 410 PM EDT
CHATHAM AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUSTERLITZ BY 425 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4200 7368 4205 7382 4205 7383 4206 7384
      4241 7369 4232 7342 4200 7367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 203DEG 26KT 4206 7375

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

NYZ041-050-083-292100-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
409 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  EXTREME SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY
RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROUND LAKE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTH OF CLIFTON PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MILTON BY 415 PM EDT
SARATOGA SPRINGS BY 425 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4325 7360 4321 7358 4317 7359 4315 7358
      4313 7359 4288 7374 4294 7395 4329 7378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 204DEG 22KT 4297 7382

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

CTZ001-MAZ001-025-NYZ053-054-060-061-066-VTZ013-292115-
BENNINGTON VT-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
415 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
  LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...
AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM CENTER BRUNSWICK TO AVERILL PARK TO NASSAU TO CHATHAM TO
PHILMONT TO COPAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
STEPHENTOWN...GRAFTON AND AUSTERLITZ BY 425 PM EDT
SHEFFIELD...ASHLEY FALLS...NEW LEBANON AND BERLIN BY 430 PM EDT
CANAAN...HOUSATONIC AND HANCOCK BY 435 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4253 7306 4222 7310 4203 7303 4203 7366
      4222 7373 4253 7370 4262 7365 4282 7366
      4286 7368 4286 7304 4262 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 270DEG 32KT 4277 7355 4262 7351
          4253 7357 4238 7357 4222 7360 4212 7354