River Flood Warning 76, NWS Albany, NY

759 
WGUS81 KALY 290924
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
524 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

NYC113-292124-
/O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
524 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT  4 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 7.6 FEET BY  8 PM 
  SUNDAY...THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   SUN   SUN   SUN   MON   MON

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.5 SUN 04 AM   7.5   7.6   7.6   7.6   7.5

$$

308 
WGUS81 KALY 291813
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

NYC113-300613-
/O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 1 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       8 PM  2 AM  8 AM  2 PM  8 PM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   SUN   MON   MON   MON   MON

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.6 SUN 01 PM   7.6   7.5   7.5   7.5   7.4

$$

917 
WGUS81 KALY 300012
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
812 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

NYC113-301212-
/O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
812 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* IMPACT...AT 7 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       2 AM  8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   MON   MON   MON   MON   TUE

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.6 SUN 07 PM   7.5   7.5   7.5   7.4   7.4

$$

136 
WGUS81 KALY 300857
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
457 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

NYC113-302057-
/O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
457 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT  4 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 7.6 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING...
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS ONTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   MON   MON   MON   TUE   TUE

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.6 MON 04 AM   7.6   7.5   7.4   7.3   7.2

$$

855 
WGUS81 KALY 301518
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
1118 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

NYC113-310318-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110601T0300Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110531T2100Z.NO/
1118 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING... 
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. 
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER  5 PM TUESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS.

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM  2 PM
LOCATION        STG   STG  DAY  TIME   MON   MON   TUE   TUE   TUE

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.6 MON 10 AM   7.5   7.4   7.3   7.2   7.1

$$

066 
WGUS81 KALY 310107
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
907 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

NYC113-311307-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110601T0522Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110531T2322Z.NO/
907 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 8 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER 8 PM TUESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       2 AM  8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   TUE   TUE   TUE   TUE   WED

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.5 MON  8 PM   7.5   7.3   7.2   7.0   6.8

$$

099 
WGUS81 KALY 311103
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
703 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

NYC113-312303-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T0807Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110602T0207Z.NO/
703 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
* AT  6 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER
  10 PM WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   TUE   TUE   TUE   WED   WED

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.6 TUE 06 AM   7.6   7.5   7.5   7.4   7.3

$$

351 
WGUS81 KALY 311553
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
1153 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

NYC113-010353-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T0000Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110601T1800Z.NO/
1153 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. 
* AT 11 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER  2 PM WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS.

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM  2 PM
LOCATION        STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE   TUE   WED   WED   WED

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.5 TUE 11 AM   7.5   7.3   7.2   7.1   7.0

$$

959 
WGUS81 KALY 010153
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
953 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

NYC113-011353-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T1800Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110602T1200Z.NO/
953 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT  9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER  8 AM THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       2 AM  8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   WED   WED   WED   WED   THU

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.4 TUE 09 PM   7.4   7.3   7.2   7.2   7.1

$$

811 
WGUS81 KALY 011246
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
846 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYC113-020046-
/O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T1800Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110602T1200Z.NO/
846 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 8 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER 8 AM THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM  2 PM
LOCATION        STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED   WED   THU   THU   THU

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.3 WED  8 AM   7.2   7.2   7.1   7.0   6.9

$$

922 
WGUS81 KALY 011527
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
1127 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYC113-020327-
/O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T1200Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110602T0600Z.NO/
1127 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER 2 AM THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                      2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM  2 PM
LOCATION        STG   STG  DAY  TIME   WED   WED   THU   THU   THU

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.2 WED 10 AM   7.2   7.1   7.0   6.9   6.8

$$

023 
WGUS81 KALY 020110
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
910 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

NYC113-021200-
/O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T1200Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110602T0600Z.NO/
910 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  AFTER 2 AM THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS.

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       2 AM  8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   THU   THU   THU   THU   FRI

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    7.1 WED 08 PM   7.0   6.9   6.8   6.7   6.6

$$

909 
WGUS81 KALY 020745
FLSALY
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 
345 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

NYC113-020815-
/O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110602T1200Z/
/RVRN6.1.ER.110528T2100Z.110528T2230Z.110602T0345Z.NO/
345 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
* AT 3 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 7 FEET...WATER FLOODS INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS.

&& 
 
                  FLD   OBSERVED              FORECAST
                                       8 AM  2 PM  8 PM  2 AM  8 AM
LOCATION         STG   STG  DAY TIME   THU   THU   THU   FRI   FRI

SCHROON RIVER
  RIVERBANK     7.0    6.9 THU 03 AM   6.9   6.8   6.7   6.6   6.4

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY...CONVECTION IS TRACKING THROUGH
AREAS BETWEEN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAKENING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...BUT TRENDS SUGGEST THE
BERKSHIRES SHOULD BE SPARED OF THIS CONVECTION. SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE CATSKILLS AND SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING
TOWARD THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

SO...LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOST OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND SOME OF
THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE. LOWS IN THE 60S...SOME 50S NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OLD WEAKENED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH...AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE REGION TOMORROW SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND TERRAIN...WHICH COULD TRACK THROUGH
VALLEY AREAS AS WELL. SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE 80S...SOME 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AGAIN LATE. LOWS IN THE 60S...SOME 50S NORTHERN AREAS.

ON MONDAY...SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
GETS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SCRAPES NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. IF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NUDGES FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD A BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. USUALLY IN
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONDITIONS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SCATTERED AT BEST...BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEAR. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 80S...TO NEAR 90 IN MANY AREAS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS...SO GOING 50S NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
AROUND 50 PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 60S MOST OTHER
AREAS.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES...WITH
MORE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO OUR REGION. SUNSHINE AND
DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUE NT...INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE...ESP THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY REGION. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH POPS
MAINLY CONFINED TO AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT...WITH MINS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...AND GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

WED...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME DURING
WED...ALTHOUGH LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...WITH THE 12Z/28 ECMWF FASTER...WITH FROPA WED
MORNING...AND THE GFS AND GEFS MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WILL SIDE A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEFS TIMING...WITH GREATEST POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE CRITICAL TO
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH FRONT...AS THE LATER TIMING
WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY AND INCREASED CHC FOR STRONG
TSTMS. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN STRONG TSTMS SHOULD
FRONT PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TIMING OF
FRONT WILL ALSO INFLUENCE MAX TEMPS...WITH A LATER TIMING ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPS. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF GFS MOS
AND HPC TEMPS...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW/MID 80S WITHIN THE VALLEYS...AND
SOME UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WITH 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT...TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER FROPA AS DEPICTED BY
GFS/GEFS...WILL KEEP SOME EVENING SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.

THU-FRI...DESPITE A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...COLD POOLS ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON BOTH DAYS.
THE FIRST ONE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THU AFTN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL
THEREFORE INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS. ANOTHER COLD POOL WILL
PASS THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVELS AND OVERALL
DRYING THROUGH THE LOW/MID LEVELS MAY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THU. SO...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRI...MAINLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH NO POPS
FOR MUCH OF THU NT AFTER EVENING ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHC POPS. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S IN VALLEYS FOR THU...AND 60S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MAXES A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRI AFTN. FOR THU
NT/FRI AM MINS...EXPECT MAINLY LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH 40S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

FRI NT-SAT...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH CHILLY TEMPS FRI
NT...GENERALLY 45-50 IN THE VALLEYS...AND WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SEASONABLY WARM SAT MAXES
REACHING THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BEST
CHANCE AT KGFL WITH TEMPO FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH SHRA AND
CB...DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
RETREATING NORTHWARD. AIR MASS TYPE STORMS EXPECTED NEAR KALB/KPOU
SO WILL MENTION PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH AND CB IN
CLOUD GROUP. IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES PASS OVER A TAF SITE...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST AFTER
SUNSET. MODELS SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z MONDAY...AS LOW STRATUS
SCOURS OUT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 8-15 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 3-6 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 7-10 KT BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY
CONTINUING FROM THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA.
MON-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR...CHC MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.
THU...VFR. BREEZY W-NW WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...
AND DROP TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...AND FALL BACK
TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARM...MOIST AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE
GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED EACH DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO...RAPID
RISES ARE LIKELY ON SMALLER STREAMS WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN
FALLS...WITH VERY LITTLE RESPONSE ON THE LARGE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013>015-291100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE NORTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL
DISTRICT...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE THE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE...SOME COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 TO
40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084-291100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
425 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS OR LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

NYZ042-083-282015-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARRENSBURG BY 350 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSBURG BY 355 PM EDT
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLTON LANDING BY 405 PM EDT
CHESTERTOWN BY 410 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GEORGE...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE.
REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LATEST BATCH
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

LAT...LON 4375 7391 4371 7349 4340 7382 4338 7416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 211DEG 24KT 4344 7397

FRUGIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     FLASH FLOOD      THURMAN                 43.53N 73.92W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT GLEN ATHOL ROAD AND VALLEY ROAD INTERSECTION.
            PART OF ROAD WASHED AWAY.

&&

KLIPTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             WARRENSBURG             43.50N 73.78W
05/28/2011  E1.75 INCH       WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

&&

KLIPTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STONY CREEK             43.43N 73.93W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN STONY CREEK AND THURMAN DUE TO
            FLOODING...INCLUDING HIGH STREET AND MOUNTAIN ROAD IN
            STONY CREEK.

&&

KLIPTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             KNOWELHURST             43.44N 74.02W
05/28/2011  E0.88 INCH       WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

0139 PM     HAIL             THURMAN                 43.53N 73.92W
05/28/2011  E1.50 INCH       WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTERTOWN             43.65N 73.80W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON LANDON HILL ROAD.

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W WARRENSBURG         43.49N 73.88W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGH STREET NEAR ATHOL.

0205 PM     HAIL             4 WNW WARRENSBURG       43.53N 73.85W
05/28/2011  E1.25 INCH       WARREN             NY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AT DAGGETT LAKE CAMPSITES.

0206 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW WARRENSBURG        43.56N 73.84W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ONE MILE NORTH OF GOLF COURSE ROAD ON ROUTE
            28.

0232 PM     HAIL             3 N HAGUE               43.79N 73.49W
05/28/2011  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT ROGERS ROCK CAMPGROUND.

0407 PM     FLASH FLOOD      THURMAN                 43.53N 73.92W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT GLEN ATHOL ROAD AND VALLEY ROAD INTERSECTION.
            PART OF ROAD WASHED AWAY.

0415 PM     HAIL             WARRENSBURG             43.50N 73.78W
05/28/2011  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0416 PM     HAIL             WARRENSBURG             43.50N 73.78W
05/28/2011  E1.75 INCH       WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

0435 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STONY CREEK             43.43N 73.93W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ON HARRISBURG ROAD IN STONY CREEK.

0435 PM     FLASH FLOOD      THURMAN                 43.53N 73.92W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ON RIVER ROAD IN THURMAN.

0438 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STONY CREEK             43.43N 73.93W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN STONY CREEK AND THURMAN DUE TO
            FLOODING...INCLUDING HIGH STREET AND MOUNTAIN ROAD IN
            STONY CREEK.

&&

KLIPTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
519 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WARRENSBURG             43.50N 73.78W
05/28/2011                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSTATE 87 CLOSED BETWEEN EXITS 23 AND 25 DUE TO
            FLOODING AND DEBRIS WASHING ACROSS ROAD.

&&

KLIPTON