Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2011
Lake Effect Snow Warning 2, NWS Albany, NY
NWS Albany, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 15, 2011, 3:23 AM EST for Hamilton County, Herkimer County, New York. It took effect at Jan 15, 2011, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 21 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 15, 2011, 3:23 AM EST (08:23 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 15, 2011, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 16, 2011, 4:13 PM EST
- In force
- 21 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Albany, NY
Counties Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1075 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 83 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
473 WWUS41 KALY 150823 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 323 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 NYZ032-033-151730- /O.NEW.KALY.LE.W.0002.110116T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 323 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 12 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. * TIMING: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ038-151730- /O.NEW.KALY.LE.A.0001.110116T0900Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 323 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$
7 follow-up statements
528 WWUS41 KALY 151707 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1207 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 NYZ032-033-160115- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.110116T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 1207 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 12 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. * TIMING: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ038-160115- /O.CON.KALY.LE.A.0001.110116T0900Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 1207 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$
807 WWUS41 KALY 152114 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 414 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 NYZ038-160515- /O.UPG.KALY.LE.A.0001.110116T0900Z-110117T0300Z/ /O.EXB.KALY.LE.W.0002.110116T0900Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 414 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ032-033-160515- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.110116T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 414 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING: THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TONIGHT. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ039-040-082-160515- /O.NEW.KALY.LE.Y.0002.110116T0900Z-110116T1800Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD 414 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN PORTIONS OF FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$ FRUGIS
173 WWUS41 KALY 160227 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 927 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 NYZ032-033-161030- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 927 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ038-161030- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.110116T0900Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 927 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ039-040-082-161030- /O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0002.110116T0900Z-110116T1800Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD 927 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN PORTIONS OF FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$ FRUGIS
520 WWUS41 KALY 160935 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 435 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 NYZ038-161800- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 435 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ032-033-161800- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 435 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THROUGH TODAY. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ039-040-082-161800- /O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110116T1800Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD 435 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN PORTIONS OF FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$
110 WWUS41 KALY 161409 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 909 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 NYZ038-162215- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 909 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ032-033-162215- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 909 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY THROUGH TODAY. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ047-161800- /O.EXA.KALY.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110116T1800Z/ SCHOHARIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH 909 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS: SCHOHARIE COUNTY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$ NYZ039-040-082-161800- /O.CON.KALY.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110116T1800Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD 909 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN PORTIONS OF FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$
979 WWUS41 KALY 161753 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 NYZ032-033-161900- /O.CAN.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0000Z/ NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ NYZ039-040-082-161900- /O.CAN.KALY.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110116T1800Z/ SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM... WELLSVILLE...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ NYZ038-170200- /O.CON.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE- EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ NYZ047-162200- /O.EXT.KALY.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110116T2200Z/ SCHOHARIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH 1253 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS: SCHOHARIE COUNTY. * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING: THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$
178 WWUS41 KALY 162113 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 413 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 NYZ038-162215- /O.CAN.KALY.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110117T0300Z/ SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 413 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED. $$ NYZ047-162215- /O.CAN.KALY.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110116T2200Z/ SCHOHARIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH 413 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 15, 12:57 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 15, 12:57 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1257 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 9 PM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE THE PERFECT SETTINGS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP AND HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD STOP THE NEAR FREEFALL TEMPERATURES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAIN VERY CONFINED TO OSWEGO COUNTY WITH LITTLE INLAND EXTENT. WE WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK AND ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME INCREASES A BIT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW FURTHER INLAND. AS OF 345 PM...LOW STRATUS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NY BUT THERE IS STILL LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY STILL EXPERIENCING THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES...WHICH SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING. TEMP FORECAST...WHICH WAS A BUST LAST NIGHT DUE TO MORE CLOUDS NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS AND LESS SOUTH...SHOULD BE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. WILL MENTION MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL PREVENT EVEN FURTHER DROP IN TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 415 PM...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE MORNING...AS A CLIPPER LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL MENTION SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280K SURFACE INCREASES IN THE BRIEF WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY NEAR THE NY STATE/CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...TO CATEGORICAL NORTH AND WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.25 ALTHOUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY BE AROUND OR POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 TO 1...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-2" FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF AREA ALTHOUGH 2-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW PASSES EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WELL-ALIGNED WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 7-8 KFT WITH CONDITIONAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW BANDS WILL INITIALLY SET UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH A 280 TRAJECTORY...WITH LOCAL RESEARCH INDICATING INLAND EXTENT WILL BE AT LEAST INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY EARLY. THEN...AS THE MEAN MIXED LAYER FLOW VEERS TO A 270-260 TRAJECTORY...LAKE BANDS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PERHAPS WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BANDS WILL BE RATHER TRANSITORY SO ENOUGH SNOW MAY NOT PILE UP TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD DROP CONSIDERABLY WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR MINS. THE HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COLD FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY...AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AND COLD AIR WILL GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. WILL MENTION HIGHS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING LOWER 20S NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AS A POWERFUL PACIFIC JET DIVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY SHOULD BE RATHER CHILLY /SNOW COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/. THIS WILL THE KEY ELEMENT AS THE UPSTREAM STORM APPROACHES TOWARD TUESDAY. AS THIS TIME...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CONUS WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHEN THE COLUMN DOES SATURATE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...PRECIP WILL INITIALLY START AS SNOW. ENSEMBLE APPROACH SUGGESTS THE 850MB ZERO LINE ARRIVES TOWARD THE I90 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE COULD REMAIN CHILLY FOR AN INTERESTING WINTRY MIXTURE...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. FOR THE DACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW /PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET IF SOME OF THOSE WARMER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO VERIFY/. NOW...SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING TUESDAY. THE CHANCE DOES EXIST THAT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME DISRUPTED AND LEAVE THE ENTIRE COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE /IE NO RAIN OR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/. SO WE WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE FOR FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS IN THE HWO. QPF FROM THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER HIGH WITH VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. SURE...SOME UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD AID IN THE INCREASED WATER CONTENT OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THIS STORM WILL DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANGING BACK TOWARD SNOW AND/OR FZRA...THEN EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. DEFORMATION/TROWAL AXIS COULD LINGER WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEN A BRIEF RESPITE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS HIGH DEPARTS...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN...THICKEN...AND LOWER WITH AN OVERCAST DECK BY MID MORNING. STEADY SNOW WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER NOON WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY LOWERING TO MVFR...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR IN SNOW AND MIST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IFR IN SNOW AND MIST IS LIKELY TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING. OUTLOOK... SAT NT...BECMG MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN. SUN...VFR/MVFR...ISOLD --SHSN AT KALB AND KGFL. SUN NT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX. MON NT-TUE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR WITH PCPN LIKELY. PCPN EXPECTED TO START AS -SN WITH A MIX AND/CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT KPOU AND PERHAPS INTO KALB. TUE NT-WED...MVFR-IFR WITH A CHC OF SNOW. && .HYDROLOGY... COLD WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOW WARM AND HOW MUCH RAIN IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...FLOODING AND ICE BREAK UP IS A LOW PROBABILITY...AND MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...RCK/JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...RCK HYDROLOGY...SND
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 14, 4:29 PM EST, 10 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 429 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 NYZ032-033-038-082-151200- NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN FULTON- 429 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL AFFECT A GIVEN AREA...AS SNOW BANDS MAY OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES. A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME THE STORM TRACK IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WHICH WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST WILL BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS THE STORM EVOLVES. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084- VTZ013>015-151200- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA- NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE- WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 429 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME THE STORM TRACK IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WHICH WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST WILL BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS THE STORM EVOLVES. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 3:23 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Watch | ALY | Herkimer | 13 hr |
| Jan 15, 4:14 PM EST | Lake Effect Snow Advisory | ALY | Fulton, Montgomery, Schoharie | 24 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2011Every lake effect snow warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.