Freeze Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

277 
WWUS71 KALY 160712
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
312 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

NYZ032-033-161515-
/O.NEW.KALY.FZ.W.0002.110917T0200Z-110917T1300Z/
/O.CON.KALY.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110916T1100Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
312 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES OF NEW 
  YORK.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
  TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING

* TEMPERATURES...MORNING LOWS 29 TO 32 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
  24 TO 32 DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WARNING
  AREA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS TODAY. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
  FALL QUICKLY TO REACH FREEZING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WHILE FROST FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO
  WIND THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING TONIGHT.
  PLANTS SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PROTECTED
  AND ANY HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

MAZ001-NYZ042-058-082-VTZ013>015-161515-
/O.NEW.KALY.FZ.W.0002.110917T0200Z-110917T1300Z/
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN WARREN-WESTERN GREENE-NORTHERN FULTON-
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...
WARRENSBURG...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...NORTHVILLE...
MAYFIELD...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
312 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS 27 TO 32 DEGREES. 

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
  FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING TONIGHT. PLANTS
  SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PROTECTED AND ANY
  HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ038>041-043-047-048-050-051-054-061-063-066-083-
084-161515-
/O.NEW.KALY.FR.Y.0005.110917T0200Z-110917T1300Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...
FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...
HOOSICK FALLS...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...
WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...PAWLING...
DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...
GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...
CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH
312 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TEMPERATURES 32 TO 36 DEGREES

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TO AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM IN THESE AREA
  TONIGHT AFTER 10PM. PLANTS SENSITIVE TO FROST SHOULD BE
  PROTECTED AND ALL HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

SNYDER

271 
WWUS71 KALY 161019
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

NYZ032-033-162100-
/O.CAN.KALY.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110916T1100Z/
/O.CON.KALY.FZ.W.0002.110917T0200Z-110917T1300Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES FOR THIS 
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
  PROTECTED AND ANY HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

MAZ001-NYZ042-058-082-VTZ013>015-162100-
/O.CON.KALY.FZ.W.0002.110917T0200Z-110917T1300Z/
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN WARREN-WESTERN GREENE-NORTHERN FULTON-
BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...
WARRENSBURG...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...NORTHVILLE...
MAYFIELD...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN WARREN...NORTHERN FULTON...WESTERN
  GREENE...NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND WINDHAM COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INT SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
  PROTECTED AND ANY HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE MOVED INSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ038>041-043-047-048-050-051-054-061-063-066-083-
084-162100-
/O.CON.KALY.FR.Y.0005.110917T0200Z-110917T1300Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...
FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...
HOOSICK FALLS...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...
WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...PAWLING...
DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON...
GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...
CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SARATOGA AND GLENS FALLS
  AREAS...MOHAWK VALLEY...TACONICS...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
  NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
  MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* TIMING...FROST FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS SENSITIVE TO FROST SHOULD BE PROTECTED AND ALL
  HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS. A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTLING IN OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...WITH
BACK EDGE OF STEADIER RAIN NOW ENTERING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE STEADY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AHD MID HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. THE MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE W...SO CAN
NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS IN WAKE OF
STRATIFORM AREA OF RAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO...HAVE SPED UP
TIMING OF STEADIER RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED LIKELY TO CAT POPS A
BIT FROM W TO E...TAPERING TO CHC OR SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...THEY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THUS
FAR...BUT ONCE STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF...AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE...COULD SEE TEMPS INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TWEAKED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MOST
TEMPS GENERALLY HOLDING BETWEEN 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

AS OF 10 AM EDT...RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST.  THERE ARE
STILL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER LITCHFIELD AND NOW INTO PORTIONS
OF THE BERKS.  HOURLY LAPS DATA DOES SHOW SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH CAPES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 100S
J/KG FOR MAINLY LITCHFIELD COUNTY.  NO INDICATIONS OF LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME.  SO MAIN UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT HOURLY TRENDS AND TWEAKS
TO THE EXPECTED QPF.  THUS FAR...6 HR VALUES UPSTREAM ARE AVERAGING
BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH WITH MINIMAL RESPONSE ON
THE RIVERS.

AS OF 8 AM EDT...AS THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
ARRIVED...SEEMS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WERE OCCURRING OVER
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.  IN ADDITION...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WAS A BIT SLOWER.  LASTLY...SEEMS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BECOME STEADY /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD/ ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.  GIVEN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED VARIABLES...DID A BRIEF UPDATE TO THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...FROPA TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD AOA 00Z FRI.

...WET AND CHILLY DAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

AS OF 645 AM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
RAIN PROGRESSING EASTWARD NICELY THIS MORNING WITH COLD FRONT. WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY.

AS OF 4 AM...HAVE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING A REAL CHANGE OF AIRMASS TO THE REGION IS APPROACHING
FROM WEST AND IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL CATCH UP TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND THEY WILL MOVE OFF THE THE
EAST COAST TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ANA FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BASICALLY ONLY IMPACTED THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR. POPS INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

WILL BE CHILLY TODAY WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE TODAY. LOOKING
AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S...MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ARE TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUT IF FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER TONIGHT AND SURFACE RIDGE ONLY BEGINS
TO BUILDS IN. WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VERY LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GRTLKS FRI
MORNING AS 500HPA TROF EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES. AFTER A CHILLY
MORNING FRIDAY TEMPS ONLY SLOWLY REBOUND INTO 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT HI CENTER SETTLES OVER FCA UNDER CLR SKIES...AND
CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FREE FALL. FROST WILL
BE WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE HUD VLY FM CAP DISTRICT SOUTH AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. MAY PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS AND GREENS COULD SEE A FREEZE.

WHILE THE SFC HIGH IS CLEARLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS PERIOD THERE
HAS BEEN A SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE FOR SVRL DAYS THAT A SERIES
OF SHORT WVS EVENTUALLY PHASE INTO A 500HPA CUT OFF SOMEWHERE
ALONG OR OFF THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIS SIGNAL IS NOW
PRESENT IN GFS/GEM/AND SVRL PAST RUNS OF ECMWF. CUTOFF IS FURTHER
EAST ON TNGTS RUNS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FORTUNATELY THE AIR
MASS ACROSS RGN IS QUITE DRY. THERE WILL BE TWO IMPACTS...SOME MID
CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE 500HPA SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL RESULT IN PC
CONDS FOR A TIME AND BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND A TROF RIDGE COUPLET
AT 500HPA THAT WILL RESULT IN INCRG ACVA AND SUSTAIN THE SFC HIGH
OVR RGN INTO THE NEW WEEK.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AFTER MANY AREAS HAVE FROST
OR FREEZE SAT MRNG.  TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S SAT..MID TO
UPPER 60S SUN AND NR NORMAL MONDAY IN MID 60S TO MID 70S. MINS
WILL REBOUND AS WELL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS IN GUID SUITE HAVE SFC AND 500HPA RIDGE OVR RGN MONDAY.
ITS AT THAT POINT THINGS BEGIN TO UNRAVEL. THE ECMWF FOR SVRL DAYS
HAS BUILT AN EAST COAST RIDGE INTO THIS PERIOD WITH RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AND WARMER CONDS AS
WELL AS INCRG THREAT OF SCT -SHRA. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR OR ABV
NORMS.

GFS CONTINUES ITS UPR GRT PLAINS CUTOFF WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
COMING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ITS MAIN CUTOFF
FEATURE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GFS SUGGESTS IT IMPACTS FCA BY
END OF EFP PERIOD. GIVEN THE OVERALL PICTURE WILL INTRODUCE CHC
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IN TIME THE EXACT TYPE OF FRONT AND
ITS EVOLUTION WILL BCM DISCERNIBLE...BUT INCRG CHC POPS A GOOD
FCST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH SCT
SHOWERS LINGERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH TODAY/S RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC...IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

CLEAR SKIES ON LGT/VRB WIND EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS. MAY HAVE LIGHT BR DEVELOP AT KGFL
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

FRIDAY MORNING...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS
FROM THE NW-N INCREASE TO 7-12 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCT EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS. A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTLING IN OVER
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL GIVE WAY TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IS EXPECTED. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS/STREAMS...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE FOOT.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING RIVER LEVELS EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KL/IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM/IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KGM/IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/JPV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

CTZ001-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-161100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
446 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE
VALLEYS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP...THEN FROST ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. FROST AND OR FREEZE
STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ013-NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-161100-
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
446 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.