Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Albany, NY

861 
WGUS61 KALY 222152
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-231000-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
552 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
   EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN 
  LITCHFIELD AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
   NORTHERN BERKSHIRE AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE. IN EAST CENTRAL 
  NEW YORK...EASTERN ALBANY...EASTERN COLUMBIA...EASTERN 
  DUTCHESS... EASTERN GREENE...EASTERN RENSSELAER...EASTERN 
  SCHENECTADY... EASTERN ULSTER...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...
  NORTHERN FULTON... NORTHERN HERKIMER...NORTHERN SARATOGA...
  NORTHERN WARREN... NORTHERN WASHINGTON...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHEAST 
  WARREN...SOUTHERN FULTON...SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHERN 
  SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN ALBANY...WESTERN 
  COLUMBIA...WESTERN DUTCHESS...WESTERN GREENE...WESTERN 
  RENSSELAER...WESTERN SCHENECTADY AND WESTERN ULSTER. IN 
  SOUTHERN VERMONT... BENNINGTON...EASTERN WINDHAM AND WESTERN 
  WINDHAM. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
  CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
  SPOTS. FORTUNATELY...SO FAR...THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE NOT
  BEEN TRAINING BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THERE MIGHT BE TENDENCY FOR
  THE SHOWERS TO BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS EVENING...BUT ANY
  SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD NEVERTHELESS PRODUCE LOCALIZED
  RAINFALL OVER 2 INCHES IN A SHORT TERM...CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH
  FLOODING.


* ANYONE LIVING IN OR NEAR LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND 
  NEAR SMALL STREAMS OR CREEKS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE 
  POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY 
  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. CAMPERS...HIKERS AND 
  ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES SHOULD ALSO BE 
  ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS THE 
  THREAT OF LIGHTNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

HWJIV

$$

857 
WGUS61 KALY 230107
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
907 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-231000-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
907 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
  ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
  HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY
  HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING. 

* ANYONE LIVING IN OR NEAR LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND 
  NEAR SMALL STREAMS OR CREEKS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE 
  POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY 
  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. CAMPERS...HIKERS AND 
  ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES SHOULD ALSO BE 
  ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS THE 
  THREAT OF LIGHTNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

380 
WGUS61 KALY 230848
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-232200-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
448 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
  AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
  FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
  RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. IN
  ADDITION...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  AFFECT SOME AREAS REPEATEDLY...OR TRAIN...ENHANCING RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

* ANYONE LIVING IN OR NEAR LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND 
  NEAR SMALL STREAMS OR CREEKS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE 
  POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY 
  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED. CAMPERS...HIKERS AND 
  ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES SHOULD ALSO BE 
  ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS THE 
  THREAT OF LIGHTNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

823 
WGUS61 KALY 232136
FFAALY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011


CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-232245-
/O.CAN.KALY.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110623T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
536 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

WHILE SOME HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST TWO
DAYS...IT WAS NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT BUT
AT THIS POINT...THE THREAT OF ANY FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM'S FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...FAIRLY SOLID MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NOW
ENCOMPASSES CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY PATCHY HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS...IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. GIVEN THAT CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT
MINS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN BOTH THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO CHC RANGE BY
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LATEST HRRR OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES
POTENTIAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THESE AREAS...WITH EVEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLY REACHING THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND
OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO
RECENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

AS OF 730 PM...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS CONTINUING CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
CLOUD CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO REGION OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS.

AS OF 430 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS WHICH WERE MOVING IN AN ESE DIRECTION TOWARD THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALSO SOME CLOUDS HAD MOVED
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...WITH SOME CLOUDS
POPPING UP ALONG THE CREST AND JUST EAST OF THE BERKSHIRES AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SKIES
WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN LATER
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE
THE CHC POPS SOUTH...SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE CENTER...AND KEEP THE
NORTH DRY THRU 10Z CURRENTLY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GET IN SOON ENOUGH TO AVERT
THE FORMATION OF RADIATION FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS/WX
FOR WEDNESDAY. INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

INCREASING MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS...ESP FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU WED NIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM-12 AND GFS-40 BRING PWATS TO NEAR/ABV 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...2 TO 3 SD/S ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 500
MB RIDGE AXIS. THIS ALL POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES FROM
LATE WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR BUILT UP AREAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION FOR ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SOME RAIN...EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN RATHER COOL...CLOSER TO THE MET MOS...FOR WED
MAXES...WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THE UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS. WE HAVE POPS INCREASING
FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THRU MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...FROM THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
THE GFS MOVES THE MAIN UPLIFT AREA EAST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM-12 IS ABOUT 9
TO 12 HOURS SLOWER.

THURSDAY...SOME QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL ACTUALLY GET. THERE ARE HINTS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE REGION...WITH A COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE
COOLER WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS MOST OF THE DAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS IN LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE...HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER
TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH JUST SHOWERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE ONGOING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH.  STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR GETS INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME...BEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ONLY SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE TOO
LATE FOR ANY REAL WARM TEMPERATURES.  SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS CORRIDOR OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE FLOW
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TURNING SOUTH AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S...SOME
60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FORECASTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A DRYING TREND.  SO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SATURDAY
APPROACHING 80 IN MANY AREAS.  CONTINUED DRYING AND GRADUAL COLD
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.  STRONG SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND
80 TO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPOU WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z DUE TO FOG AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF VCSH.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AS CONVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE
INCLUDED CB IN THE TAFS TO ADDRESS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN BECOMES
HEAVY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KNOTS TODAY AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHC FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR/MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS
THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE CATSKILLS AND ARE HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST A FEW SPOTS MAY HAVE HAD OVER
AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART RAINFALL
HAS AMOUNTED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THE WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE DRY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT ENOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEW.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH DAYTIME RH VALUES 55 TO 75 PERCENT
INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY. THEY WILL
BECOME NEAR CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

A SOAKING RAIN WILL RESULT IN WET FLAG CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WERE MOVING ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR IN
A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST OF THE AREA  HAS HAD LITTLE OR NO
RAIN AT ALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD OVER
THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WED NT. HIGH PWAT/S
APPROACHING 2 INCHES...IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO SLOW
MOVING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. THERE IS LESS LIKELIHOOD OF
STREAM OR RIVER FLOODING SINCE THE GROUND HAS BECOME FAIRLY DRY
IN MANY AREAS...AND CAN NOW SOAK UP FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
ALSO THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL TENDS TO BE SPOTTY. WHILE A FEW SMALL
STREAMS MAY GET CLOSE TO...OR EVEN OVER...BANKFULL...LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS WILL SHOW LESS OF A RESPONSE SINCE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO ONLY FALL IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE BASIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/RCK
NEAR TERM...KL/IAA/RCK
SHORT TERM...RCK
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/IAA
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK/KL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-221100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
925 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RUNOFF FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS...ALONG WITH RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON LARGER STREAMS OR RIVERS.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...THEN
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE ISSUED.

ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.