Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 700 AM...RAINFALL BEGINING TO LIGHTEN UP ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THEFAR NORTH. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS.

****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE ORIGINAL N-S BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT
WAS FROM EASTERN PA INTO CENTRAL NY...HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A HEAVY
RAIN BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE
MODELS NEVER SUGGESTED THIS WOULD OCCUR...BUT THAT THE PCPN OVER
SOUTHEAST NY AND WESTENR NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE STARTING TO WIND DOWN
BY NOW.

THE 06Z NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON THE HEAVY PCPN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND SUGGEST THE REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 200 PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEFINITELY DRIER THAT THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT....ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60...AND HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY DRY OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S .LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM...THE HEAVY RAIN BAND WAS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND
AFFECTING THE KPOU TAF SITE. DIMINISHING RAINFALL WAS SEEN OVER KALB
AND PCPN OVER KGFL HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED.

MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. AFTER 14Z...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES...THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR LATER TONIGHT AS
CIGS/VSBYS LOWER DUE TO ALL THE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...LINGERING MVFR/IFR EARLY FRI MORNG...OTHERWSIE MAINLY VFR.
          NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A DRYING TREND MAY FINALLY START TO BEGIN FRIDAY.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOIL CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED...AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS POINTS ACROSS THE HSA ARE ALREADY
IN FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A HALF
INCH TO ANOTHER TWO INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXTREME SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 200 PM. AT THIS
POINT...MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY...WITH LITTLE FALLS AND CANANJOHARIE CURRENTLY (AS OF 500 AM)
AT MAJOR FLOOD LEVEL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
517 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REPORT ANY
FLOODING OR RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
TELEPHONE...OR THE INTERNET VIA OUR SPOTTER REPORT FORM OR OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGSTON                41.93N 74.00W
09/08/2011                   ULSTER             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED COUNTY-WIDE.

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HUNTER                  42.21N 74.22W
09/08/2011                   GREENE             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED COUNTY-WIDE.

&&

JPV