Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM STAYS OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE FA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 19Z...STORMS OVER THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE HAVE BEEN AIDED BY SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. EXPECT MORE
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 IN...BUT
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP. THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.

AS FOR THE HEAT...HEAT INDICES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 105 DEGREE
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...THE LOWERING OF TEMPS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL
FORCE HEAT INDICES TO FALL BELOW 105 BEFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY
EXPIRES (8 PM). ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ANOTHER LEE-SIDE TROUGH
WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STORMS AGAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
OF 100 TO 104. POPS WILL TAPER OFF NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS AND BECOME DIFFUSE OR
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...SO THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TIDEWATER REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY LEADING TO
DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING LONGWAVE PATTERN OF NW-W FLOW
ALOFT LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY
DRY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND REMAIN INTACT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
DEWPOINTS AND BRING A RETURN TO HOT AND STICKY CONDITIONS. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR TO BE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BRIEF BREAKS DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO POP UP SUN AFTN AND EVENING.
CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE FA. WIDE SPREAD BR IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO OVERNIGHT WINDS
STAYING AROUND 5 KT AND CLOUDS INCREASING.

EXPECT GREATER CVG OF STORMS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN.

OBSERVATIONS AT KSBY ARE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO UNRESOLVED PHONE LINE
ISSUES. AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL SERVICE IS RETURNED.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT. WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HERE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 5 TO 6 PM EST BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 18 KT. ELSEWHERE OVER COASTAL WATERS AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. W-SW SURFACE FLOW (AT OR BELOW 15 KT) WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE NW-N AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS A LEE TROUGH SITS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE
NW MONDAY NIGHT...CROSSING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WINDS
BRIEFLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NORTHERLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING S/SE TUE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS/WINDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...AND DAILY HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (7/24)

DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:

    SUN 7/24
    --------
RIC 105/2010
ORF 105/2010
SBY 96/1995
ECG 97/1995

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM  TEMPERATURES:

    SUN 7/24
    --------
RIC  79/2010
ORF  81/1991
SBY  81/2010
ECG  79/2010

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MDZ025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>062-064>069-072>079-
084>100-251945-
MARYLAND BEACHES-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>024-VAZ063-070-071-080>083-251945-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-HANOVER-CHESTERFIELD-
HENRICO-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-251945-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MDZ022-024-025-241740-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-WICOMICO MD-
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH WORCESTER COUNTY...

AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BERLIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SNUG HARBOR AT 125 PM EDT...OCEAN CITY
AIRPORT AT 130 PM EDT...ASSATEAGUE NATIONAL REFUGE AT 135 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3838 7505 3831 7509 3811 7517 3804 7523
      3805 7528 3812 7520 3818 7520 3820 7518
      3823 7521 3820 7525 3815 7524 3815 7528
      3806 7529 3815 7553 3846 7553 3845 7504

SCALORA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>