Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1221 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY...WITH
ANOTHER OPPRESSIVELY HOT DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 100. DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL NO LOWER THAN THE LOW TO MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF 110-115 HEAT INDICES.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS VERY SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK WNW FLOW TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY...WHICH PRESENTLY APPEARS SITUATED BETWEEN DCA AND EZF.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH AMPLE AMBIENT MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 2
IN) AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO
OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FURTHER SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY TO SAG INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SUNDAY AS
THICKNESS VALUES FALL SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...AND HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST IN THE 105-109
RANGE. THIS IS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES WILL BE AVOIDED UNTIL THE CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
EXPIRES THIS EVENING.

BY MOST STANDARDS MONDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AS WELL...BUT IT IS
LIKELY TO BE THE FIRST DAY SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY THAT A HEAT RELATED
HEADLINE WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES FROM THE MID 90S TO
LOW 100.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT-LIVED RESPITE FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE THE SCREAMING
MESSAGE FOR DAYS 4-6. SFC CD FRONT FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE
INTO/THROUGH AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS
BY 8 TO 12 DEGREES. BUT...MORE IMPORTANTLY...WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS
TO FALL TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS. TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
HUMID/MUGGY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC...WITH LOWER DEW POINTS PROGRESSING
SEWD DURING THE DAY. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN CLIMBING AGAIN. UPR RIDGE
BUILDING BACK ACROSS REGION THU/FRI WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO GET BACK
INTO THE MID 90S AGAIN BY DAY 7 (NEXT FRIDAY).

PRECIP WISE...SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NGT/EARLY TUE ACROSS THE
SE THIRD OF CWA. OTHERWISE...EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAZE CONTINUES AT RIC AND AROUND KSBY TERMINAL...BUT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY MID-LATE MORNING SAT AS DEW POINTS DROP SLIGHTLY FROM
THOSE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF TSTMS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE...WITH BEST CHCS AT KSBY/KRIC. HAVE ADDED 'CB'
WORDING TO TAF AFTER 20Z AT RIC-SBY-PHF...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
DIMINISHING PRIOR TO 03Z/24. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SCATTERED AFTN/ERY
EVE THUNDERSTORMS...AND BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...EXIST ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY.

OBSERVATIONS AT KSBY ARE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO UNRESOLVED PHONE LINE
ISSUES. AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL SERVICE IS RETURNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE BAY AND BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD ALLOW S-SW FLOW (10-15 KT) TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  WENT WITH SWAN/WAVEWATCH BLEND FOR WAVE FCST
(WAVES 1-2FT...SEAS 2-3 FT...APPROACHING 4 FT OUT BY 20 NM).

RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT FOR
SUNDAY AFTN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEABREEZE
EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTNS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH E-SE WINDS 10-15 KT BY DAY VEERING
BACK TO THE SW BY NIGHT. A SECOND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLIP
SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND THE
VA-NC BORDER ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF N-NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE SSE ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPR RIDGING
REBUILDS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...AND DAILY HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (7/22) THROUGH SUNDAY (7/24)

DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:

    SAT 7/23   SUN 7/24
    --------   --------
RIC 103/1952   105/2010
ORF 103/1952   105/2010
SBY 100/1952    96/1995
ECG 104/1952    97/1995

DAILY HIGH MINIMUM  TEMPERATURES:

    SAT 7/23   SUN 7/24
    --------   --------
RIC  78/1991    79/2010
ORF  80/1991    81/1991
SBY  80/1978    81/2010
ECG  79/1991    79/2010

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>100.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...WRS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

MDZ024-025-231715-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-
1216 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WEST OF OCEAN CITY...

AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SHOWELL TO OCEAN PINES...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...CAPE ISLE OF
WIGHT AROUND 1230 PM EDT...WEST OCEAN CITY AROUND 1235 PM
EDT...BERLIN AROUND 1240 PM EDT...SNUG HARBOR AROUND 1255 PM
EDT...AND ASSATEAGUE NATIONAL REFUGE AROUND 115 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE
THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL AFTER THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3831 7509 3822 7513 3820 7519 3824 7522
      3842 7529 3845 7509 3842 7508 3839 7509
      3838 7511 3836 7510 3841 7507 3836 7505

WRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

VAZ048-231945-
FLUVANNA VA-
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD FLUVANNA COUNTY...

AT 251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE MONTICELLO...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTH OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR NAHOR...AND...LAKE MONTICELLO AT
345 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...A PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THIS
STORM REACHES YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3782 7849 3799 7833 3795 7818 3772 7833
      3779 7849

WRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

VAZ048-232000-
FLUVANNA VA-
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLUVANNA COUNTY...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BYBEE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PALMYRA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR BYBEE AT 310 PM EDT...KENTS STORE AT 400 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...A PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THIS
STORM REACHES YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3790 7807 3780 7818 3794 7828 3797 7824

WRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

MDZ022-024-232015-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-WICOMICO MD-
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST OF OCEAN CITY...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SHOWELL...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SHOWELL AT 320 PM EDT...BISHOP AT 325 PM
EDT...BISHOP AT 330 PM EDT...BISHOPVILLE AT 355 PM EDT...BISHOPVILLE
AT 400 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THIS STORM REACHES YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3845 7512 3842 7513 3836 7527 3845 7535

MMONTE