Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND STALL NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY LATE DAY
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW TREND OF DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION ALONG WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SEE IF IT STRETCHES AND SHEARS APART OR IF
A DRY SLOT NOSING IN WILL ENHANCE THEM THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN...
SUSPECT THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
KEEP THESE CELLS CONFINED TO THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHWEST VA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
BASE DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...AN
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WAKEFIELD CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
THE BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA
(NORTH OF THE CWA)...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...SEVERAL FACTORS ARE WORKING IN TANDEM TO
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ABOVE 700-600 MB AND NO
MOISTURE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. UPPER AIR LOCATIONS UPSTREAM...
PARTICULARLY AT RNK...CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT.
CROSS SECTIONS ALSO REVEAL A WEAK MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER OVER THE
REGION EVEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DAMPER ON OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GFS DATA DOES
NOT GET RID OF THIS CAP WHILE THE NAM INDICATES THE CAP BREAKING
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE (WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED) AND
IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOCUSED
PRECIP IN THESE AREAS AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THAT. BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WOULD BE FROM
WIND...HOWEVER GUSTS WOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA OF 58 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL STALL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NC DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN EASTERN
SHORE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING PLEASANT CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SLGT (20) TO SML CHCS (30) FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPLY IN THE AFTN/EVENG HRS.
A WRM FRNT WILL AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO TUE MORNG...THEN A COLD
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE TUE NGT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THU. HAVE CHC POPS (30) ALL AREAS FOR WED/WED EVENG...AND
LINGER CHC POPS IN NC CNTIES ON THU.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S MON MORNG...IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S TUE AND WED MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S THU MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 80S TO ARND 90
MON...IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S TUE AND WED...AND IN THE MID 80S TO
ARND 90 THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVG THRU CENTRL AND SRN VA. THE FRONT WILL
HELP TO INDUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESP AREAS EAST OF RIC. OPTED TO ADD CB FOR
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT RIC WHERE DEWPTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY
TONIGHT AND NW WNDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRYER AIRMASS
FOR OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. SCT TSTMS AGAIN PSBL MON AND TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS SW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS SAT MORNING. NO REAL COLD
SURGE OR SGNFCNT WIND SHIFT SEEN IN MODEL DATA TO SUGGEST ANY POST
FROPA SCA'S. WINDS BECOME NW SAT AFTRN...N SAT NIGHT THEN E-SE BY
LATE SUNDAY (STILL BLO SCA LVLS) AS HIGH PRS TO THE N MOVES E.

USED WNA WAVES/SEAS AS SWAN SEEMS TO BE ABOUT A FOOT TO HIGH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ017-102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ048-049-060>100-250915-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-
HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
504 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ017-102-250915-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
504 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-250915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
504 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BMD

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