Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE OUT TO SEA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM AFTN UNDERWAY W/ TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...MAINLY
COOLER 60S ERN SHORE. LITTLE TO NOTHING ON THE RADAR TO THE E OF
THE MTNS RIGHT NOW...WITH SCTD TSTMS OVER SE OHIO/WV. EXPECT BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP THIS EVENG TO BE BETWEEN 7PM AND MIDNIGHT AS SFC
FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STILL NOT A LOT OF
SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN CHC POPS AND CONFIDENCE IS LWR THAN
USUAL FOR NEAR TERM TIME FRAME AS MODELS STRUGGLE W/ NW FLOW ALOFT
EVENTS (I.E THIS MRNG). HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST ISO TSTMS ALL AREAS
OTHER THAN THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE AND
SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUE/TUE NGT...DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS TO TURN NLY OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LGT FLOW OVER INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC WHERE
BNDRY LOOKS TO DISSIPATE. AGAIN EXPECT A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WITH
COOLER UPR 50S/LWR-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND CSTL SE VA/NE NC WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE MID-UPR
70S/AROUND 80 FOR PLACES FROM AVC TO EMV TO ASJ. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO PRV FCST WITH LOW 20-30% CHC POPS OVER THE PIEDMNT AS SOME
OVERRUNNING/WAA MSTR RETURNS LATE IN THE DAY. SPC HAS FAR WRN ZONES
IN GNRL THUNDER AND HAVE INCLUDED TSTMS IN THE FCST OVER THESE
AREAS WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENG. TUE NGT...INCREASED CHC FOR PRECIP WITH BEST
OVERRUNNING/LIFT OVER THE PIEDMNT AND INTO NRN ZONES...WITH ONLY
20-30% CHC FARTHER S AND E. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVER SRN ZONES AFTER MIDNGT.

WED/WED NGT...PROBABLY THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE DAY OF THE PERIOD AS
BNDRY LIFTS BACK NE AND PLACES A PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. MAV/MET GDNC CONTINUING TO SHOW ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE "BATTLE GROUND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT (MAV BEING WARMER AND NAM COOLER). CAN'T
REALLY TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SINCE
THIS RARELY VERIFIES THIS TIME OF YR. FCST WILL GO W/ WARMER
NUMBERS OVER FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC WITH HIGHS INTO THE
80S...AND COOLER MET GDNC OVER THE ERN SHORE (LWR 50S AT OXB) WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT IN BETWEEN. AS FOR PRECIP CHC...WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT POSITION OF THE BNDRY BUT A CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW WOULD
SUGGEST LMTD POPS EXCEPT OVER FAR NRN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH. BEST CHC ELSEWHERE WOULD BE LATE AFTN AND WED EVENG AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH (STILL KEEPING CHC POPS AT THIS
PT).

THU...DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SFC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY DAYBREAK...AS UPR SYSTEM LAGS AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY ISO SHWRS BUT WILL CAP POPS AT 14% FOR NOW AS MAIN
FORCING STAYS OFF TO OUR N. COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVG FOR HIGHS...MAINLY UPR 50S/NEAR 60 N...MID/UPR 60S FAR
S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODELS
DISCREPANCIES DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING OVER THE RGN WITH
FAST MOVING NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE TOOK A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED LEADING TO CHCS OF PRECIP AT TIMES WITH
ANY SHRTWVS THAT DVLP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED LOW
CHCS OF SHRA ACTIVITY (MAINLY LATE DAY SCENARIOS) SAT/SUN/MON AND
WILL LIKELY ALSO LEAD TO POSSIBLE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
N/S OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION AS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN
WITH THE EARLY AFTN SUN. A LOW PRES SYS IS JUST WEST OF NY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THRU THE OH VALLEY. HI PRES IS OFF THE SE
COAST BRINGING SW WNDS GUSTING TO 20 KT OVER THE MID ATL REGION.
THE FRONT WILL CONT TO SLIDE SOUTH AND INTO CENTRL VA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN STALL OVER THE AREA ON TUE. THE FRONT COULD BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS AND -RA IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS BUT
OVERALL IT SHOULD BE VFR WITH PARTLY SUNNY WX ON TUE. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE TUE AFTN/EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND A CHC OF TSTMS TUE NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE MOVG
OFFSHORE WED EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS CONTINUE THIS AFTN INTO THE LATE EVE HRS BEFORE CONDITIONS
FALL BELOW CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W
OVERNIGHT WITH CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE N/NW TWRDS TUE AM (ESP NRN WATERS). MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LVL SURGE THAT DVLPS OVER THE BAY WATERS BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT WRDG BELOW THRESHOLD BUT COULD SEE
FLAGS OVER THE BAY DAYTIME TUE AM (MARGINAL SCA WINDS) BEFORE WINDS
SUBSIDE. WINDS TURN TO E/NE BY TUE EVENG BEFORE FRNTL BNDRY LIFTS
ONCE AGAIN N-NE OVER THE AREA AS A WRM FRNT ON WED. WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE TRICKY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN BEFORE A
COLD FRNT PUSHES THRU THE REGION WED NGT FM THE NW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...CCW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

VAZ064-212330-
CAROLINE VA-
629 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO CAROLINE COUNTY...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SMALL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS...ORIENTED
FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF LADYSMITH TO LADYSMITH...OR FROM 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN TO 10 MILES WEST OF MILFORD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR   MILFORD
AROUND 640 PM EDT...

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3816 7715 3785 7739 3805 7759 3809 7756
      3821 7741

05