Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AND SETTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT NOW FINALLY
MAKING HEADWAY INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA (WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S). FARTHER SE IT REMAINS VERY WARM...PARTICULARLY
IN FAR SE VA/NE NC WHERE ITS IN THE MID 70S.

FOR THIS EVENING...LATEST FCST WILL CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF LESS
QPF FOR SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AMTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE 1-1.5' FAR
NW...TO LESS THAN .25" SE. NOT EVEN CONVINCED IT RAINS AT ALL ACRS
PORTIONS OF NE NC/EXTREME SE VA WITH THIS EVENT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS DURING A NARROW WINDOW OF 70% POPS LATER THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR...A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION IS PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL SC/NC...AND IF IT WERE TO HOLD TOGETHER IT WOULD
POTENTIALLY KEEP A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS
EVENING. MORE LIKELY...WILL JUST SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE SSW TO N/NNW AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADSY FOR THE
MD ZONES AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN AS THE SFC LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS FOR AN ADSY...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH IN THE HWO...WITH A FEW SPS' POSSIBLY NEEDED LATER THIS
EVENING.

WHILE LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW COLDER AIR RUSHING IN FROM THE
NW...AFTER ABOUT 04Z. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED THOUGH SO SHOULD ONLY SEE A BRIEF POSSIBILITY FOR RA/SN
MIX OVER THE FAR NW PTNS OF THE FCST AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. GIVEN
THE WARM BNDRY LAYER TEMPS (SFC TEMPS MID TO UPPER 30S)...WARM
GROUND...AND A FAIRLY QUICK DEPARTURE WITH THE DEEP LAYER
MSTR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THE FIRST FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
OF THE SEASON. MINS...LWR 30S NW...LWR 40S FAR SE. SKIES CLEAR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST ON THU...LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 40S N TO LWR 50S S. COLD AND CLEAR THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LWR 30S. HIGHS FRI MAINLY LWR-MID 50S/UPR 50S S...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS (AVERAGING OUT PARTLY CLOUDY). WEAK FRONT
REINFORCES COLDER AIR FOR SAT...BUT REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY MOVES NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESULT WILL BE DRY/COOL WX. BLO NRML TMPS TO
START THEN A SLOW WRMG TREND. LOWS SAT/SUN NITE IN THE 20S TO
L30S SERN CSTL SCTNS. HIGHS SUN M-U40S. HIGHS MON U40S-M50S.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE SRN US TUE. WEAK CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS
RGN TUE NITE WITH HIGH PRS RETURNING WED. LIMITED MOISTURE SEEN IN
MODELS ATTM...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST THRU PRD BUT INDCT SOME CLOUDS
ON TUE ALONG/AHEAD OF BNDRY. HIGHS TUE/WED 50-55. LOWS U20-M30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUICK CHANGES IN FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 18 HRS. GUSTY
S-SW WINDS BTWN 15-25KT IS BRINGING IN ENUF MSTR FOR MVFR CIGS
(BTWN 2-3K FT) THIS AFTRN. WDSPRD RAIN TO THE W IS SLOW TO APPRCH
AND HAVE PUSHED BACK THE STARTING TIME OF MOST PCPN UNTIL AFTR
00Z. EXCEPTION BEING AT RIC WHERE PCPN WILL OVRSPRD THE AIRFIELD
ARND 21Z...WITH A SVRL HR PRD OF IFR CNDTNS AND MDT RAIN ARND 00Z.
PCPN MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES THIS EVE.
LEFT OUT CB AS CONFIDENCE RATHR LOW THAT ANY THUNDER WILL DVLP.
EVENT SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF SHWRS WITH GUSTY WINDS IVOF FRONTAL
BNDRY.

NXT CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY W-NW WINDS BEHIND FROPA. LATEST 950MB WNDS/
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE BOSTON TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS BTWN
30-35 KTS MOST AREAS...35-40 KTS ALONG THE ERN SHORE INCLUDING SBY.
THUS HAVE BUMPED UP THE GUSTS FOR A SVRL HR PRD FROM LATE THIS EVE
INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. NOT A WIND SHEAR CONCERN BUT MAYBE A CROSS WIND
ISSUE AT SOME AIRPORTS.

COLUMN RAPIDLY DRYS OUT RESULTING IN CLRG SKIES LATE TONITE BUT STILL
WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS WITH SKC EXPECTED
AFTR 12Z. HIGH PRES PROVIDES VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LTST DATA CONTINUES TO SPRT GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF CDFRNT THIS EVENING
WITH EVEN STRONGER NW GUSTS FROM LATE EVENING THRU PRE-DWAN HRS. 950
MB WINDS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND BOSTON TECHNIQUE ALL SPRT GUSTS
BTWN 35-40 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS FOR A FEW HR PRD TONIGHT IVOF
BUOY 44009. THUS...GALE WRNGS WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE WITH THIS
FCST PACKAGE. WAVES/SEAS QUICKLY BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WNDS.

CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE THURSDAY. PRS GRDNT RELAXES AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAY NEED A SVRL HR PRD OF "RAMP DOWN" SCA
HEADLINES THU MORN BEFORE CONDITIONS FALL BLO SCA LVLS.

NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SAT AS ANTHR REINFORCING CAA SURGE
MOVES ACROSS THE WTRS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST MINOR FLOODING MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW
SITES...INCLUDING RICHMOND WESTHAM BY LATE THU-FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-
     658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ

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