Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC COLD FRONT STILL ALONG/W OF THE
MTNS...WITH A SFC BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACRS THE CWA. THERE
IS STILL A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S N AND NW...WHILE READINGS ARE IN THE UPR 70S OVER SE
VA/NE NC. PRECIP-WISE THE LATEST RADAR PICS SHOW THAT WE ARE INTO
A LULL WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS OF LATE AFTN.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...FOLLOWED
BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER ABOUT 7 PM OR
SO...FROM NW TO SE.

WHILE ALL AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TSTM THIS
EVENING...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX STILL LOOKS TO RESIDE ACRS SE
VA/NE NC. THIS IS WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF MODEST SFC- BASED
INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) WILL CO- EXIST WITH HIGH SHEAR (0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR 60 KT+). MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS (>40 KT OF
0-3 KM SHEAR AND DCAPE>1000 J/KG)...ALTHOUGH WITH SHARP TURNING IN
WIND DIRECTION WITH THE FRONT (FROM SW TO NNE) COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SPIN-UP OR TWO. TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 02-06Z...NOT IDEAL
FOR SEVERE WX WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAINLY JUST RAIN
THEREAFTER...GENLY LOOKING AT AROUND AN INCH OF QPF OVERALL. LOWS
IN THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S CSTL NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NOT CROSSING THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. COMBINED WITH A
NNE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET...RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
ALL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SHARPLY COLDER
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL...MAKING FOR A RAW AND CHILLY DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY MID-LATE MORNING (AFTER
EARLY AM HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SE AND AROUND 50 FARTHER NW).
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W TO E LATE IN THE AFTN (SO THAT COASTAL
ZONES MAY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY). DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MINS INTO THE UPPER 20S WEST OF I-95 THU
NIGHT...30-35 FARTHER EAST.

FRI/SAT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRI
LEADING TO DRY WX AND SUNNY SKIES. THE SFC HIGH IS QUITE
STRONG...AROUND 1035 MB...AND MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AROUND
50 FAR SW. VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH EVEN COASTAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
FREEZING. WARMER SAT AFTER A COLD START AS SFC HIGH GRADUALLY
SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FRO MODEST RETURN SW FLOW. MOSTLY
SUNNY W/ HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S (STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVG).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW FLOW ARND HIGH PRES OFF THE SERN COAST SUN RESULTS IN A DRY AND
MILD DAY ALONG WITH SOME INCRG AFTRN CLDNS. HIGHS IN THE M-U60S.

MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON
NITE THEN STALL IT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES E ALONG IT TUE.
THIS RESULTS IN A RTHR CLOUDY PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHC OF
SHWRS. HIGHEST POPS AND COOLER TMPS XPCTD ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS WITH
LWR POPS AND WRMR TMPS ACROSS THE S. HIGHS MON 60-70. LOWS SUN/MON
NITE IN THE U40S-L50S. A BIT COOLER ON TUE AS BNDRY SAGS A BIT FRTHR
S. HIGHS U50S-M60S.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW INDCTG YET ANTHR WAVE OF ENERGY DVLPS ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID SECTION THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC AND
SERN STATES WED INTO TURKEY DAY. UPSHOT HERE IS A CONTINUATON OF
UNSETTLED WET WEATHER WED AND WED NITE. HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVG FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING BUT WILL OVERSPREAD SE VA AND NC INTO TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN THE RAIN WHICH WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THRU
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER BOUNDARY (COLD FRONT)
WILL MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING EARLY TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF THE COAST BY THU MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THRU
THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OR
ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPO IFR THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE THU AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE
AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST NEXT 12-24 HRS. LTST GUID SUGGESTS A
RATHER POTENT NRLY SURGE BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
PER COORD WITH LWX/PHL...WILL KEEP CRNT SCA HEADLINE IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH LTST GUID SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL ACROSS
THE CHES BAY AND NRN COASTAL WTRS BTWN 02Z-06Z. WNDS DMNSH A BIT
LATER TONIGHT BEFORE A SECOND NRLY SURGE NOTED AS UPR LVL SYSTM
DEEPENS ARND 12Z THU. WILL KEEP GUSTS CAPPED AT 30 KTS FOR THIS
SURGE AS WELL.

FAIRLY DECEND CAA PROGGED OVR THE WATERS THRU THURS NIGHT TO KEEP
SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE. FOLLOWED WNA FOR SEAS (5-7 FT) AS SWAN
APPEARS TO HIGH. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FRI / SAT AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RETURN SW FLOW SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 16TH (WED):
RIC...85 IN 1955
ORF...83 IN 1955
SBY...78 IN 1928
ECG...85 IN 1993

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-061>064-069-071>078-083-085-099-100-171145-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-POWHATAN-
HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-NEW KENT-MIDDLESEX-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
641 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN
SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN
NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL ENCOUNTER A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-171145-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
641 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060-065>068-070-079>082-084-086>098-171145-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-PRINCE EDWARD-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-BRUNSWICK-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-GLOUCESTER-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
641 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL ENCOUNTER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
516 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

NCZ012-VAZ087-088-092-162245-
GREENSVILLE VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUSSEX VA-
516 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

...STRONG SHOWER MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

AT 515 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG SHOWER OVER DAHLIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE SHOWER
WILL BE NEAR GREEN PLAIN AT 520 PM EST...MASON AT 525 PM
EST...JOYNER AT 530 PM EST...LUMBERTON AT 535 PM EST...LITTLETON AT
540 PM EST...MANRY AT 545 PM EST.

EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
PATH OF THIS SHOWER.

LAT...LON 3704 7706 3681 7687 3654 7755 3669 7767

44