Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
102 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE
NE CONUS BY LTR TDA...PUSHES A CDFNT TWD THE FA. B4 THAT TIME
(TDA)...LLVL FLO BCMS SLY...AND GRDLY INCRSS BY AFTN HRS. INITIAL
PRE-FNTL TROUGH DVLPS IN LEE OF MTNS AFTN HRS...W/ ACTUAL CDFNT
RMNG NW OF THE RGN THROUGH 00Z/22. HTG...AND WK AVBL INSTABILITY ENUF
FOR SCT CNVTN FM 17-18Z THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. SPC HAS SLGT RISK
SVR FOR NRTH HALF OF CWA. HI TEMPS MNLY U80S TO L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHARPEN OF UPR LVL TROUGH CONTS INTO THE NE/MDATLC STATES...W/ SFC
CDFNT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA OVRNGT. 00Z/21 GFS A FEW HRS SLOER W/
THE FNT REACHING THE CST/FAR SE AREAS OF FA THROUGH 12Z/22. WL
CONT W/ POPS OVR MUCH OF THE AREA 40-50%...THOUGH TAPERING W-E AFT
MDNGT...LVG CHCS INVOF SE VA/NE NC THROUGH MON MRNG. LINGERING
PTNTL LLVL CONVERGENCE AND M/ULVL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE
RGN MON AFTN MAY RESULT IN ISLTD SHRAS/STMS INVOF/S OF VA/NC BRDR.
OTRW...DRYING XPCTD ON NNW WNDS. BY TUE...SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVR
THE RGN...AND TROUGH ALOFT RELAXES...LEADING TO A PLSNT/COMFY DAY.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M/U60S WRN/NRN SECTION...TO L70S SE. HI TEMPS
MON FM THE L/M80S ON THE LWR MD ERN SHR...AND ALG THE CST IN ERN
VA/NE NC...TO THE U80S SW PORTION OF FA. LO TEMPS MON NGT MSTLY IN
THE 60S...PERHAPS A FEW UPR 50S NWRN PTN OF CWA AND OVR INTR SXNS
OF LWR MD ERN SHR. HI TEMPS TUE IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WED-WED NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF
THE COAST. NEXT LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
COME LATE IN THE WEEK (THU-FRI)...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. PER THE 12Z 08/20 RUNS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN SHOW
THE PROSPECTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE (SOON TO BE IRENE?) TRACKING
ALONG THE LOWER FL PENINSULA ON FRI...THEN DIVERGE THEREAFTER IN
THE EVENTUAL TRACK. IMPACTS FOR OUR PORTION OF THE MID ATLC REGION
(IN TERMS OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES) WOULD APPEAR TO BE LATE SAT
OR SAT NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST.

TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMO (UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL)...
WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID-UPR 80S (COOLEST ALONG THE COASTS)
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WED MORNING...AND FROM THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE GREAT DISMAL SWAMP
FIRE AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PUSHING IT FURTHER INLAND. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...SPREADING SMOKE TOWARDS KPHF AND KORF. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO MIX WITH SMOKE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY
CONCERNS DUE TO SMOKE/FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX THE ATMOSPHERE.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT...VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER AREA WATERS DURING THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED...PLEASE REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD FOR CURRENT
INFORMATION AND UPDATES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS CREATE
ANOTHER SURGE OF BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 16 KTS WHICH
IS JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW/SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LGT SE WNDS HAS PUSH SOME OF THE SMOKE FM DISMAL SWAMP FIRE NW TO
NR RIC OVRNGT...W/ WNDS BCMG MR SSW TDA...XPCTG SMOKE TO CVR MR OF
SE VA THAN WHR IT IS ATTM. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR AREAS OF (DENSE)
SMOKE/FG INVOF FIRE SOURCE/SURROUNDING FIRE OVR PORTIONS OF
SUFFOLK/WRN CHESAPEAKE THIS MRNG.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084-086-
     088>097-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS/MAS
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

VAZ064-072-073-211755-
CAROLINE VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
117 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO KING WILLIAM COUNTY...

AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MANGOHICK...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BEULAHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR GLOBE...AND...POLLARDS CORNER AT 125 PM EDT...UPSHAW...
AND...AYLETT AT 130 PM EDT...BEULAHVILLE AT 135 PM EDT...BISCOE...
AND...NEWTOWN AT 145 PM EDT...OWENTON AT 150 PM EDT...INDIAN NECK AT
200 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO
A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3795 7707 3791 7702 3787 7704 3784 7701
      3782 7695 3769 7724 3772 7723 3771 7726
      3772 7730 3774 7730 3773 7732 3775 7730
      3776 7734 3779 7733 3779 7737 3781 7739
      3801 7709

SCALORA

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