Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY
OFF THE COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MR TYPICAL WX CONDS ACRS THE FA FOR LT JULY. DWPTS RMN IN THE 70S
THRU FA...BUT TEMPS HV BEEN TRIMMED BY NRLY 10 DEGS F (FM WHAT
THEY WERE FRI/OVR THE WKND). SVRL CLUSTERS OF CNVTN FM ERN MD
THROUGH WCNTRL VA AND INTO NC...POISED TO DRIFT EVER SLO GRDLY SE
INTO THE FA THIS EVE...THEN LINGER INTO THE OVRNGT HRS (THOUGH THE
HIEST CVRG OF STMS XPCTD TO SLIP INTO SE VA/NE NC). BRIEF GSTY
WNDS AND LCLLY HVY RA THE THREATS W/ THESES STMS. TEMPS SLO TO
FALL OUT OF THE 90S ERY...UNLESS THERE IS A PASSAGE OF A STM WHICH
WOULD BRING (SGFNT) COOLING. LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY FM THE L/M70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WKNG CDFNT SETTLES SLOLY THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF FA ON TUE.
BLENDED NUMERICAL GUID...BUT HV LEANED TWD A SLOER MVMNT OF THE
FNT AND ITS ASSOCD CLDS/PCPN INTO NE NC. NRN AREAS XPCTD TO CLR
OUT SOONER...AND XPCTG A DECENT DROP IN DWPTS DN INTO CNTRL AREAS
OF FA DURG THE AFTN HRS. HWVR...ACRS SE VA/NE NC...NO SUCH LUCK
(AT LEAST WRT LWRG OF THE DWPTS) THRUT THE DAY. STILL SOME CONCERN
OVR KPG CLDS AND AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS INVOF CSTL NE NC TUE NGT
INTO WED WHL OTR AREAS ARE CLR/PCLDY AND THE DWPTS/HUMIDITY IS
TRIMMED. W/ HI PRES PASSING BY TO THE N...THEN TO OFF THE CST BY
WED NGT/THU...RETURN FLO FM THE SSE WOULD BRING BACK THE HIER
DWPTS AND PTNTL INCRSD CLDNS (TO MUCH OF THE FA) BY THU MRNG. DO
XPCT MUCH OF ANY CLDNS THU MRNG TO BRK AND LEAD TO PSNY/HOT AND
HUMID CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RDG ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK OVR THE RGN FM THE W...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER
CAP...LMTG CNVTV PSBLTYS.

HI TEMPS TUE/WED FM THE 80S RIGHT NR THE CST TO 90 TO 95F INLAND. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT/WED NGT FM THE M/U60S TO M70S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE
L/M90S IN MOST PLCS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
FRIDAY...THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE SW EDGE OF THE TROUGH. AS HUMIDITIES
INCREASE...HEAT INDICES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ON
SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED HEADLINES ARE BECOMING LIKELY
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. STILL OUTSIDE OF TIME FRAME FOR ISSUING A
WATCH BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. A COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STALLING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...BEST
THUNDERSTORM/PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH BRIEF BREAKS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE TOWARDS THE FA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND EVENING AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. REDUCED VIS...HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY STORMS. BR MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA AREAS
THAT RECEIVED PRECIP. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING LATE TUE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE FA.

OBSERVATIONS AT KSBY ARE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO UNRESOLVED PHONE LINE
ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AFTER BULK OF PRECIP PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS (BELOW
15 KT) LATE TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS NORTHERLY SURGE IS CURRENTLY SITTING AT BORDERLINE
SCA CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
HEADLINE SINCE THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION IS STRONGER THAN THE GFS
MODEL (WHICH IS TYPICAL) AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER CONTINUITY
BETWEEN DATA SETS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...LEADING TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS/WINDS
INCREASING BY LATE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING DURING MUCH
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SUMMARY OF RECORDS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS:

RICHMOND: NO RECORD HIGHS SET. RECORD HIGH MIN OF 79F SET ON FRI/22ND.

NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH OF 102F SET ON FRI/22ND...AND RECORD HIGH OF 103F
TIED SAT/23RD. RECORD HIGH MIN OF 82F TIED ON FRI/22ND.

SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH OF 103F SET ON SAT/23RD. RECORD HIGH MIN OF
80F SET ON FRI/22ND.

ELIZ CITY: RECORD HIGH OF 97F TIED SUN/24TH. RECORD HIGH MIN OF
79F TIED ON FRI/22ND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WSR 88-D AT DOVER AFB (DE) IS OUT OF SERVICE ATTM DUE TO
LIGHTNING STRIKE AT THE SITE. A NEW POWER SUPPLY IS EN ROUTE...BUT
A DEFINITIVE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS NOT YET KNOWN. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PHLFTMDOX FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADJACENT
RADARS INCLUDE KAKQ...KLWX AND KDIX.

ALSO...AS NOTED ABOVE PHONE LINE ISSUES CONTINUE TO PREVENT
DISSEMINATION OF OBS FROM WICOMICO REGIONAL AIRPORT IN SALISBURY
(KSBY). MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH OF THESE OUTAGES WILL BE
PROVIDED AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>064-066>078-080>086-099-262015-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-ACCOMACK-
413 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK
AND DEWPOINTS REACH INTO THE MID 70S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-079-087>098-100-262015-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-MECKLENBURG-BRUNSWICK-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA-
413 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE
OF VIRGINIA AND THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK
AND DEWPOINTS REACH INTO THE MID 70S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-262015-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
413 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BMD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

VAZ067-079-080-252230-
BRUNSWICK VA-DINWIDDIE VA-NOTTOWAY VA-
550 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NOTTOWAY COUNTY*...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DARVILLS...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF
MCKENNEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR MCKENNEY AT 605 PM EDT...ROCKY RUN AT 610 PM EDT...DEWITT...
AND...CENTER STAR AT 625 PM EDT...BUTTERWORTH AT 630 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3718 7798 3718 7746 3692 7753 3688 7762
      3688 7764 3690 7765 3689 7766 3682 7766
      3683 7801

SCALORA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
604 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

MDZ023-024-252230-
INLAND WORCESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-
604 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND WEST
CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTIES...

AT 602 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PRINCESS ANNE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS
STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WESTOVER AROUND 630 PM.

LAT...LON 3809 7555 3804 7578 3824 7579 3827 7562

HURLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
628 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

NCZ013>017-030>032-VAZ096>098-252330-
BERTIE NC-CAMDEN NC-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHOWAN NC-GATES NC-HERTFORD
NC-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-SUFFOLK VA-VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN
CURRITUCK NC-
628 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 626 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNBURY TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
COLONY...OR FROM SUNBURY TO PLYMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SANDY CROSS AROUND 635 PM EDT...
  WHITESTON AROUND 640 PM EDT...
  YEOPIM STATION AROUND 645 PM EDT...
  WINFALL AROUND 650 PM EDT...
  SOMERSET AROUND 655 PM EDT...
  SOUTH MILLS AROUND 700 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE
THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3588 7682 3656 7669 3657 7597 3650 7598
      3655 7602 3622 7606 3623 7608 3629 7618
      3614 7606 3609 7621 3613 7634 3610 7629
      3600 7659 3622 7673 3599 7667 3586 7679

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW EXIT 4 ALONG I 85 36.62N 78.21W
07/25/2011                   MECKLENBURG        VA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON STATE ROUTE 615.

&&

HURLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KING AND QUEEN COURTHOU 37.67N 76.88W
07/25/2011                   KING AND QUEEN     VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN VICINTY OF RIVERS REACH SUBDIVISION

&&

JFOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

VAZ070-071-081-082-089-252345-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-HENRICO VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-SURRY VA-
704 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CHESTERFIELD...
NORTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGE...NORTHWESTERN SURRY...SOUTHEASTERN
HENRICO AND WESTERN CHARLES CITY COUNTIES...

AT 701 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WAYSIDE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

* BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WAYSIDE...JORDAN POINT MARINA...
BARNETTS...ADKINS STORE...CHARLES CITY...NEW HOPE...ROACHES
CORNER...AND SANDYBOTTOM...NEW HOPE AND RUTHVILLE.

LAT...LON 3742 7701 3728 7697 3720 7703 3737 7738
      3748 7730

DEROSA