Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL AREA OF SHRAS/TSRAS THAT MVD THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL
AND SE VA CONTG TO DCRS IN INTENSITY ATTM...WHL A SCND AREA NOW
MAINTAINING ITSELF NNW OF RIC. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING A LRG BRK IN
THE CLDNS FM ABT I95 ON WWD...WHL CLDNS RMNS XTNSV MUCH OF THE ERN
PART OF FA. PLNTY OF MSTR AVBL TDA...PW'S AVGG 1.5-1.75"...W/ VALUES
ARND 2" OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC. FRZG LVL FM 14-15KFT...CNVTV TEMPS IN
THE M/U80S...DP LYRD WSW WNDS AOB 15KT. WL BE CONTG TO WATCH FOR
CNVTV DVLPMNT ANYWHERE IN FA...THOUGH HIEST PROB MAY ACTUALLY BE
SRN 1/2. VRY HVY RA THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH GSTY WNDS/HAIL A
PSBLTY IN THE STRONGEST STMS. WL LIKELY KEY ON ANY STMS W/ VIL AOA
60.

OTRW...XPCTG VRBL CLDNS OR PSNY...HI TEMPS MNLY FM 85 TO 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...EXPECT SHRAS TO DECREASE IN
AREAL CVG AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. AGAIN HV HELD ON TO LOW POPS
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE L-M 70S.

OVERALL PATTERN CHGS VERY LTL IF AT ALL FOR THU INTO FRI...AS AKQ CWA
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR BOTH DAYS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
(PRIMARILY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA THU AFTN...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF PEAK HEATING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...SO PULSY DISORGANIZED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED W/LOCALLY HVY
RAIN AGAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD AS MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. WL AGAIN REFLECT THIS THREAT IN OUR HWO.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD
INTO THE UPR MIDWEST LTR THU INTO FRIDAY...AND WL SHUNT ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. NAM CONTINUES
TO BRING A LARGE...RATHER ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
SE COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HV DISREGARDED THIS SOLN WITH VERY
LTL/ANY OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOUND. GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH SEEMS CURIOUS GIVEN MOIST
AIRMASS AND TYPICAL MID-SUMMER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACCORDINGLY...HV
CONTINUED TO ERR ON THE SLOW SIDE WITH POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE
IDEA OF BRINGING A RELATIVELY LARGE SWATH OF PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION FRI AFTN/EVE. HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE U80S/L90S
INLAND...M80S-NR90 COASTAL ZONES. EARLY MORNING LOWS FRIDAY L-M70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AREAS OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG
IT...WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE FCST AREA FRI NGT AND SAT.
HIGHEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE OVER SRN HALF OR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. SAT NGT AND SUN...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK S AND E OF THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY WASH
OUT. SLGT OR LOW CHC POPS OVER SRN/SERN COUNTIES. RIDGING ALOFT AND
HI PRES OFFSHORE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR SUN NGT AND MON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING TUE...PROVIDING
AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORN...IN THE MID
60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORN...IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S MON MORN...AND
IN THE LWR 70S TUE MORN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
SAT...IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 SUN...IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
MON...AND IN THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENLY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME TEMPO LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION. PRECIP LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET/00-02Z THIS EVENING...WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (MVFR...POTENTIALLY IFR) IN PATCHY FOG OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP...MAINLY 06-12Z THU. BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KECG...WHERE PRESENCE OF SMOKE FROM
FIRES UPSTREAM MAY LEAD TO FURTHER VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

THU/FRI WILL FEATURE ISOLATED/SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TSTMS...LOOKS A BIT MORE QUIET SAT/SUN...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER SOUTHERN VA/NE NC...KPHF/KORF/KECG.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY...AS WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
THAT MUCH THU-FRI...HAVE GENLY DISREGARDED THE NAM DEPICTION OF A
STRONG SFC LOW FORMATION ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON UP THROUGH
ERN VA FRI-FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PER
THE GFS/ECMWF. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR DIURNAL SEA/BAY BREEZE
INFLUENCES IN THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO AVG 5-10
KT DURING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT FROM
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY AM HRS. WAVES IN THE BAY
CLOSER TO 1 FOOT BY DAY AND 2 FT BY NIGHT...AND COASTAL SEAS 2-4 FT
THROUGHOUT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT
GRADUALLY TURNING WINDS MORE TO A N/NE DIRECTION SAT-SUN. NOT A LOT
OF COLD AIR WITH THIS HOWEVER...SO WIND SPEEDS/SEAS/WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...BKH
MARINE...BKH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
458 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-070900-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
458 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM
ANY OF THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-070900-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
458 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

05

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E CHESTER             37.35N 77.42W
07/06/2011                   CHESTERFIELD       VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE LIMB DOWN ON RT 10 NEAR OSBORNE RD.

&&

ESEYMOUR