Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
537 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PULLS EAST...AND HELPS DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...LEADING TO DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2130Z...BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ATTM. AS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPARK
NEW STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD ANY
BOUNDARIES INTERACT...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE PULSE
STORMS.

WEAK ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH OVER OH AND PA. THREAT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK (10-15 KT AT 0-6 KM)...VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (RIC IS DRY-ADIABATIC UP TO AROUND 850 MB)
AND 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 IN.
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...THOUGH THE SEVERITY AND COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES GRADUALLY DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSES EASTWARDS
BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVER NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. EXPECT ONE LAST DAY
OF POSSIBLE RAIN ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW AS SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND CAPE VALUES
WILL BE LOWER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN THREAT HOWEVER
STILL THERE. RIGHT NOW...MOST LIKELY COLD FROPA TIMING IS 09Z OVER
EASTERN VA AND 12Z OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NNW BEHIND IT.

QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY
N/NW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE FOR MID-JUNE...LOW TO MID 80S
WITH UPPER 70S OVER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WX AND MILD TEMPERATURES
(NR/JUST BELOW CLIMO) UNDER NW FLOW REGIME THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...ERY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S COASTAL ZONES.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WED
AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORT-LIVED H5 RIDGING ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. BROUGHT SOME LOW POPS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF UPPER MIDWEST
SYSTEM. MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY THU INTO FRIDAY AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVENTUALLY STALLS NEAR/WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT LOCATION/ORIENTATION OF
WEAKENING/WASHED OUT BOUNDARY...HV LEFT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP
WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER MD/E VA COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAXIMA GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO (AND LIKELY
PUSHING ABOVE) NORMAL VALUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT HEAVY
RAIN...WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY
T-STORMS THAT FORM. AREAS RECEIVING ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE A
FAVORABLE SPOT FOR MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SUN MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SUN EVENING/NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR T-STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
WIND. SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE IN OR IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. S/SW FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT
10-15KT SEAS 2-4 FT. (HIGHEST WAVE HGTS OUT TOWARDS 20NM).  HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS CATCHING ON TO BRIEF INCREASE IN WNDS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A N-NW SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
RESULT IN CONDITIONS APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION...SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATER IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO S-SE FLOW FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
VA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ063-070-
     071-080>083.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
306 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ048-049-060>062-064>069-072>079-
084>100-121915-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-
PERQUIMANS-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-
CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
306 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ017-102-121915-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
306 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ063-070-071-080>083-121915-
HANOVER-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
NEW KENT-
306 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS..LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ630>634-650-652-654-656-658-121915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
306 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ061>064-069-071>074-076-112145-
CAROLINE VA-CUMBERLAND VA-ESSEX VA-GOOCHLAND VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO
VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-POWHATAN VA-RICHMOND VA-
440 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARDS NORTHERN NECK...

AT 439 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHAMPLAIN TO TRENHOLM...OR FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHAMPLAIN TO 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF POWHATAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DAWN AROUND 445 PM EDT...
  CROZIER AROUND 450 PM EDT...
  HUSTLE AROUND 455 PM EDT...
  ASHLAND AROUND 500 PM EDT...
  SALVIA AROUND 505 PM EDT...
  NEWTOWN AROUND 510 PM EDT...

EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3786 7748 3813 7718 3800 7688 3775 7700
      3756 7758 3754 7820

MMONTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE COLONIAL BEACH    38.25N 76.96W
06/11/2011                   WESTMORELAND       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN...INCLUDING ONE TREE DOWN ON A
            RESIDENCE NEAR IRVING AVE

&&

MMONTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
457 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

VAZ063-071>078-083-085-112200-
ESSEX VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM
VA-LANCASTER VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NORTHUMBERLAND VA-RICHMOND
VA-WESTMORELAND VA-
457 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM COLES
POINT TO HIGHLAND SPRINGS...OR FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF LEONARDTOWN TO
HIGHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR COLES POINT AROUND 505 PM EDT...
  WARSAW AROUND 510 PM EDT...
  KREMLIN AROUND 515 PM EDT...
  THREEWAY AROUND 520 PM EDT...
  OLDHAMS AROUND 525 PM EDT...
  OLDHAMS AROUND 530 PM EDT...

EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3816 7660 3811 7659 3808 7653 3803 7650
      3802 7646 3794 7635 3744 7679 3755 7734
      3786 7702 3818 7678

MMONTE

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