Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
304 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SVR TSTRM WATCH #49 CONTS THRU 01Z FOR AREA ALONG AND W OF I95.
WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING AND CRNT FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES IN TACT
UNTIL FROPA. ENUF SPRT FOR DAMAGING WNDS WITH ANY BOWING LINE THAT
MOVES AHEAD OF FRNT THIS EVE. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER
HR KEEPS THE FLOOD THREAT CONTG...SPCLLLY THRU EVE COMMUTE.

SVR & FLDG THREAT ENDS W-E AFTR FROPA. PCPN LINGERS ALONG THE
COAST THRU MOST OF THE NITE AS NEG TILTED SYSTM SLOWS THE EWRD
PROGRESS OF THE FRNT. TSCTNS SHOW SOME DRYING ACROSS SWRN CNTYS
LATE. MILD EVE AHEAD OF FRNT WITH TMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S. RTHR
QUICK TMPS DROP AFTR FROPA WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE U30S-M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDCT LINGERING TROF / UPR LVL NRGY FRI. DOWNSLOPING W WNDS
WILL DRY OUT LWR LYRS...SO NO PCPN XPCTD. LEANED TOWARD THE MIXED
LYRD DP TMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CNTYS FRI AFTRN (M20S). COOLER AS
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS IN THE M50S. RH VALUES BTWN 30-40%.

CLRG SKIES FRI NITE. LOWS IN THE 30S. H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES
BLDS INTO RGN SAT. H85 TMPS WRM ENUF TO SPRT MAX TMPS FROM THE U50S
ALONG THE COAST TO M-U60S W OF CHES BAY. LOWS SAT NITE U30S-L40S.

DRY FRNT CROSSES THE AREA SUN. CONT DRY BUT A BIT COOLER. HIGHS
55-60 ALONG THE COAST TO 60-65 W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW AT MID LVLS CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEADING TO
FAST MOVING SYSTEMS W/E ACROSS THE CONUS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GRT LKS/NORTHEAST REGION SUN...WITH AN ASSCD COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATL RGN MON WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
(MAINLY JUST A WIND SHIFTER). FOLLOWING CLOSE TO ECMWF SOLN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRES PUSHES BACK INTO THE LATE WKND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHES OVER PORTIONS
OF THE RGN LATE WK. TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN (ESP WRN SECTIONS OF THE
RGN). POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH CHCS FOR 40KT+ SFC GUSTS
LTR TDA CROSSING THE RGN W/ COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...RESULTING IN IFR
CONDS AGAIN INTO THIS EVE. HV INCLUDED PSBL CB FOR ALL SITES IN
ABOUT A 6 HR WINDOW AFT 20-23Z (W-E). SSE WNDS GUSTY...HIGHEST ALONG
THE CST. CDFNT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY LT THIS EVE...WNDS SHIFTING TO
WSW. LINGERING LO CIGS PSBL UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING SCT/BKN SC
(2-4KFT) FRI AS UPR LVL SYSTEM CROSSES THE RGN. VFR FOR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCAS INTO TNGT...SSE WNDS INCREASE TO 25-30KT OVR WTRS LATER
TDY INTO EARLY TNT. POTENTIAL LO END GALES GUSTS LTR TDA/THIS EVE
RIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINLY LOOK FOR STRONGER
WINDS WITH CONVECTION AND THEREFORE SMW'S STATEMENTS WILL HANDLE
THIS THREAT. WINDS SHIFT TO WSW TNT WITH DECREASING SPEEDS...THEN
AVERAGING AROUND 10-20 KT THROUGH FRI.

SEAS AVERAGING 7-11 FT TODAY (THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT A LTL HIGHER
HEIGHTS PSBL NRN WTRS). ON BAY...WVS 3-6 FT...HIGHEST NR THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY. GRADUAL LOWERING OF HEIGHTS TNGT. WILL KEEP SCAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT (SAT AFTN FAR NRN WATERS) AS
SEAS LINGERING 4-5 FT DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING (10-20KT) SAT INTO SUN...THEN SWITCHING
TO NNW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WRNGS IN EFFECT FOR THE LWR JAMES RIVER AT CARTERSVILLE
AND WESTHAM FOR THE RUNOFF FROM XPCTD RNFL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCRSD SE WNDS (PTNTLLY TO 25-30KT DURING THE AFTN HRS) RESULT IN
RISING TIDAL ANOMALIES. DEPARTURES LIKELY TO AVG 1-1.5 FT CNTRL
BAY (N OF WINDMILL PT)/INVOF TIDAL POTOMAC. HIEST TIDE AT
CAMBRIDGE MD LT TNGT/ERY FRI. LWR OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
TDA IS LT THIS AFTN/EVE...SO DEPARTURES LTR TDA WOULD HV TO BE
QUITE A BIT HIER THAN THIS MRNG (AND ABT 1/2 FOOT HIER THAN NOW
BEING FCSTD) TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR LVLS (AS EARLIER THIS MRNG). GUID
DOES SUGG PSBL DEPARTURE APPROACHING +2 FT AT CAMBRIDGE ERY FRI
MRNG. ADVSRY CONTINUES FOR CTYS BORDERING WRN BAY (N OF WINDMILL
PT)/TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH 05Z/11...AND FOR CTYS BORDERING ERN BAY
(ACCOMACK CTY VA TO DORCHESTER MD) THROUGH 14Z/11 (AS WNDS SHIFT
TO SW HOLDING/BUILDING WTR LVLS ERN PORTION OF BAY POST CDFNT).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-
     067>078-080>086-090.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ099.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ075-
     077-078.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
HYDROLOGY...ESS/MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CCW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUMPASS                 37.96N 77.74W
03/10/2011                   LOUISA             VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A CARPORT.

&&

WAMSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND GST     RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL  37.51N 77.32W
03/10/2011  M61 MPH          HENRICO            VA   ASOS

&&

AJZ

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