Gale Warning 12, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH OUR NW COUNTIES
ALREADY THIS MORNING..AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE RICHMOND METRO AREA
AROUND NOON...THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
FA THROUGH 00Z. CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALREADY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW THAT
PRECIP WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT (ANA-FRONT)...SO THEREFORE
WILL HOLD OFF WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD T-STORMS UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
VA TO THE EASTERN SHORE...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THE FALLS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH FURTHER IN THE NW
(MID/UPR 70S) WHILE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPR 80S OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST ZONES.
COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE EARLIER IN THE YEAR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAD/WEDGE PATTERN...WITH STRONG
CAA LEADING TO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING ALL THE WAY FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER FAR NW AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S OVER NE NORTH
CAROLINA.

HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE
OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VA (30%). BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WHEN MODELS INDICATE DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN (5O%) WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA. HIGHS
FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
XTNDD PD TO BE DOMINATED BY HI PRES MVG SLOLY THROUGH NEW ENG...AND
STALLED FNT ALIGNED OFF THE SE CONUS CST. THE RESULT WL BE A SVRL
DAY PD OF MNLY NE WNDS...AND ONLY GRDL DAY TO DAY WRMG. HV HELD TO
MOST CVRG OF CLDNS INVOF SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ 20-30%
POPS. AN APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE WNW BY WED SLOWS DN...AND MAY DSPT
B4 MVG OFF THE CST. TEMPS WL AVG SVRL DEGS F BLO NRML SUN THROUGH
MON...THOUGH BACK TO OR (SLGTLY) ABV NRML TUE/WED (NRMLS THROUGH THE
PD FM U70S/ARND 80F DURG THE DAY...AND U50S TO L60S AT NGT).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM WNW TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN QUICKLY OFF
THE CST THU EVE. OTR THAN PSBL PTCHY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG
(BR) THROUGH DAYBREAK...VFR CONDS THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN. PSBL
MVFR CONDS W/ SCT SHRAS/TSRAS FROM MID AFTN INTO THE EVENING WITH
THE FNTL PASSAGE. WINDS TURN GSTY FM THE NNW THU EVE...CONTINUING
THROUGH THU NGT/FRI MRNG...HIGHEST SPEEDS ALONG THE COASTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH FACING...WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE PSBL. ALSO...PTNTL
FOR PERIOD OF WDSPRD IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WITH STRATIFORM RAIN FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT...ESP SRN VA/NE NC.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY (GENERALLY AOB 10
KTS)...ENOUGH IN FACT TO LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED EASTERLY
COMPONENT NEAR THE COASTS. TOWARD LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...STRONG
POST-COLD FRONTAL NRLY SURGE WILL COMMENCE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
WATERS...AS TEMPS OFF THE WARM WATERS COOL TO LEVELS NOT SEEN IN
QUITE SOME TIME. EXPECTED TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SURGE DID NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST PER THE 00Z MODEL OUTPUT. AS WAS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANTICIPATE WINDS GENERALLY BTWN
25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT...THOUGH GIVEN THE INSTBY OVER THE WATER CANNOT
RULE OUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO LOW-END GALES (~35 KT). FOR NOW...OPTED
TO KEEP THE STRONG SCA CONDITIONS IN THE FCST...HOLDING OFF ON A
GALE WARNING...CONSIDERING THE STRONG LLVL RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND THUS RELATIVELY SHALLOW LLVL CAA/MIXING WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 800 MB.

LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH TO THE N AND WEAK TROUGH OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT NE FLOW...GENERALLY 10-15 KTS
OVER THE NRN WATERS AND 15-20 KTS S. THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN WAVES ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OVER THE CSTL WATERS AND INTO THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY...AS PER THE
PAST FEW WAVE WATCH MODEL FCSTS. FOR NOW...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA'S
THROUGH FRI NIGHT (4TH PERIOD) PER LOCAL POLICY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BLACKWATER RIVER ABOVE FRANKLIN.
SEE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS (FLSAKQ) FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR REFERENCE...RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR FRI 9/16 (COULD BE
CLOSE FOR RIC):

RIC...65 F (1959)
ORF...64 F (1963)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/JDM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BKH
MARINE...BKH
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>