Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
844 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO PUSH HURRICANE KATIA EAST AND FURTHER
OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING...ESP
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR NORTH OF RICHMOND. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS IS A CO-LOCATION OF AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT. PW VALUES ARE OVER 1.75-2 INCHES AND
HIGH LCL-FREEZING LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
THINK WILL BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS TO WIND
DOWN A BIT...BUT EVEN THEN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STACKED UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE MID-MISS VLLY
FRI AND SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRS BLDG INTO THE RGN. THIS PATTERN
WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A DRY SW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA FRI.
IT STAYS RATHER WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID THRU WEEKEND DUE TO TRPLCL
AIRMASS. ANY POPS WILL BE IN THE SLGHT CHC RANGE AND CONFINED TO
NRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS THRU THE PRD IN THE L-M80S. BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL
IN SUCH A PATTERN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
FRI. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MOIST MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER THE FA. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SATURATED BL...VIS AND CEILINGS MAY MAKE LIFR/IFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRI AS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP DWINDLE SAT AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...CREATING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. NO CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY
TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8-10FT BEYOND
5-10 NM...WITH A POTENTIAL OF UP TO 10-12 FT NEAR 20 NM. NEARSHORE
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT...SO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. A MINOR INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC (DIRECTION NE THEN N)...BUT SHOULD BE AOB
15 KT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH
ELEVATED OFFSHORE SEAS AND LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 13-16 SEC. THE
THREAT SHOULD IMPROVE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST SITES WILL HAVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LEVELS COULD APPROACH MINOR AT
OCEAN CITY WITH HIGH TIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NCZ013>016-031-032-VAZ049-062>064-069>078-081>086-088>097-100100-
HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-LOUISA-GOOCHLAND-
HANOVER-CAROLINE-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ017-102-VAZ098-100100-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-VIRGINIA BEACH-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>024-NCZ012-030-VAZ048-060-061-065>068-079-080-087-100100-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-NORTHAMPTON NC-BERTIE-
FLUVANNA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-
AMELIA-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-GREENSVILLE-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-100100-
MARYLAND BEACHES-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ654-656-658-100100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-100100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ634-100100-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>633-100100-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
900 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLONIAL BEACH          38.25N 76.97W
09/08/2011                   WESTMORELAND       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER...MANY STREETS CLOSED BY VDOT
            AND THE FIRE DEPT. MANY HOMES FLOODED ON WASHINGTON AND
            IRVING STREETS. SEVERE BEACH EROSION WITH 20-25 FT OF
            OVERWASH.

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLONIAL BEACH          38.25N 76.97W
09/08/2011                   WESTMORELAND       VA   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ON MONTICELLO ROAD

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
916 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GILMAN                  37.78N 77.58W
09/08/2011                   HANOVER            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MANY ROADS CLOSED IN WESTERN HANOVER.

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
938 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLOTHIAN              37.50N 77.64W
09/08/2011                   CHESTERFIELD       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ON SPRING RUN ROAD

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LADYSMITH               38.02N 77.51W
09/08/2011                   CAROLINE           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
            COUNTY. EASTERN HALF HIT HARDEST INCLUDING CARMEL CHURCH
            AND RUTHER GLEN.

&&

JFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW KING AND QUEEN CO 37.73N 76.89W
09/08/2011                   KING AND QUEEN     VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS POWHATAN TRAIL AND POCOHONTAS
            TRAIL

&&

MSCALORA