Coastal Flood Statement 8, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO PUSH HURRICANE KATIA EAST AND FURTHER
OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
TRPLCL MSTR PLUME ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRNTL BNDRY CONTG TO AID IN
THE DVLPMNT OF SHWRS/TSTRMS LATE THIS AFTRN. SAID BNDRY PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE E AND OFF THE COAST TONITE. THIS ALONG WITH THE LOSS
OF HTNG SHOULD ALLOW FOR PCPN COVERAGE TO DECREASE THRU OUT THE
NITE WITH LTST DATA SPRTG THE BEST LIFT AND SPRT FOR PCPN HEADING
N & W OF FA AS WEAK NRGY ROTATES ARND RETROGRADING UPR LVL LOW.
WILL INCLUDE A THROUGH 7 PM PRD TO ACCOUNT FOR CRNT RADAR TRENDS
THAT SHOW SHWRS CONTG TO RPDLY DVLP ALONG SAID TRPLCL PLUME. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND E OF I95. LTL IF ANY SPRT FOR PCPN FROM
FVX-AVC. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF POPS THIS EVE WITH ONLY CHC POPS
ACROSS NRN CNTYS AFTR MIDNITE. ANY SHWR/TSTRM OVR NXT FEW HRS CUD
PRODUCE LCLLY HVY RNFL AND GIVEN THE LOW FF GUID...MAY NEED TO
ISSUE ADDNTL FLOOD ADVSRYS/WRNGS DUE TO THE SATURATED GRND IF
ECHOES CONT TO DVLP AND TRAIN.

NXT CONCERN TONITE WILL BE FOR FOG DVLPNT GIVEN THE SATURATED GRND
ALONG WITH TMPS APPRCHG DP TMPS. HAVE ADDED PTCHY FOG AFTR MIDNITE
FOR NOW. LOWS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STACKED UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE MID-MISS VLLY
FRI AND SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRS BLDG INTO THE RGN. THIS PATTERN
WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A DRY SW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA FRI.
IT STAYS RATHER WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID THRU WEEKEND DUE TO TRPLCL
AIRMASS. ANY POPS WILL BE IN THE SLGHT CHC RANGE AND CONFINED TO
NRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS THRU THE PRD IN THE L-M80S. BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL
IN SUCH A PATTERN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
FRI. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MOIST MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER THE FA. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SATURATED BL...VIS AND CEILINGS MAY MAKE LIFR/IFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRI AS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP DWINDLE SAT AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...CREATING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. NO CHANGES APPEAR NECESSARY
TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8-10FT BEYOND
5-10 NM...WITH A POTENTIAL OF UP TO 10-12 FT NEAR 20 NM. NEARSHORE
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT...SO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY. A MINOR INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC (DIRECTION NE THEN N)...BUT SHOULD BE AOB
15 KT. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH
ELEVATED OFFSHORE SEAS AND LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 13-16 SEC. THE
THREAT SHOULD IMPROVE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST SITES WILL HAVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LEVELS WILL APPROACH
MINOR AT OCEAN CITY WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN COMBINED WITH SWELL FROM HURRICANE KATIA. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LEVELS
COULD AGAIN APPROACH MINOR AT OCEAN CITY WITH HIGH TIDE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE/TIDES...AJZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
109 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAZ063-064-072-073-081800-
CAROLINE VA-HANOVER VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
109 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OF RICHMOND METRO...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL GARAGE TO STUDLEY...OR FROM MANQUIN TO STUDLEY...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  AYLETT AROUND 115 PM EDT...
  MANGOHICK AROUND 140 PM EDT...
  BEULAHVILLE AROUND 145 PM EDT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3804 7713 3763 7708 3760 7726 3799 7744
      3805 7714

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
204 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

NCZ016-017-VAZ094>097-081900-
CAMDEN NC-CHESAPEAKE VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH
VA-SUFFOLK VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-
204 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
TIDEWATER...

AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...ORIENTED FROM NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION TO
LILLY...OR FROM NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION TO SOUTH MILLS...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR...
  WESTERN BRANCH AROUND 215 PM EDT...
  BOWERS HILL AROUND 225 PM EDT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3651 7647 3687 7646 3696 7641 3696 7637
      3695 7637 3696 7634 3696 7626 3664 7623
      3643 7623

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAZ063-064-072-073-081915-
CAROLINE VA-HANOVER VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
220 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF RICHMOND METRO...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MANGOHICK TO HANOVER...OR FROM DAWN TO ASHLAND...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH. THESE SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DAWN AROUND 230 PM EDT...
  KINGS DOMINION AROUND 235 PM EDT...
  DOSWELL AROUND 245 PM EDT...
  SPARTA AROUND 305 PM EDT...
  MILFORD AROUND 315 PM EDT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3824 7731 3825 7729 3823 7728 3824 7728
      3825 7726 3767 7712 3759 7737 3806 7758
      3820 7743 3826 7734

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
235 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAZ073-074-076-078-084-085-081930-
ESSEX VA-GLOUCESTER VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-LANCASTER VA-MIDDLESEX
VA-RICHMOND VA-
235 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NECK...

AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED NEAR SALUDA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THESE SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR REMLIK...AND...WARNER AT 245 PM
EDT...MASCOT AT 255 PM EDT...CHURCH VIEW...AND...VELMA AT 300 PM
EDT...JAMAICA...AND...NESTING AT 310 PM EDT...DRAGONVILLE AT 325 PM
EDT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3774 7691 3792 7663 3758 7645 3749 7656

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
327 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAZ070-071-080>082-082030-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-DINWIDDIE VA-HENRICO VA-PRINCE GEORGE
VA-
327 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM TRI-CITIES AREA TOWARDS METRO
RICHMOND...

AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...ORIENTED FROM VARINA TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF RICHARD
BLAND COLLEGE...OR FROM VARINA TO CARSON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHARD BLAND COLLEGE AROUND 350 PM EDT...
  PETERSBURG AROUND 400 PM EDT...
  ETTRICK AROUND 410 PM EDT...
  COLONIAL HEIGHTS AROUND 415 PM EDT...
  WOODS EDGE AROUND 425 PM EDT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3717 7723 3716 7732 3715 7742 3723 7744
      3725 7743 3727 7744 3743 7747 3748 7728

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
333 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAZ080-081-087>089-092-093-096-082030-
DINWIDDIE VA-GREENSVILLE VA-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-PRINCE GEORGE
VA-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
333 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...ORIENTED FROM DENDRON TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEES
MILL...OR FROM DENDRON TO GATES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEES MILL AROUND 340 PM EDT...
  BERLIN AROUND 350 PM EDT...
  WAKEFIELD AROUND 355 PM EDT...
  CARSLEY AROUND 405 PM EDT...
  GWALTNEY CORNER AROUND 410 PM EDT...
  SAVEDGE AROUND 415 PM EDT...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3711 7682 3673 7685 3655 7677 3655 7734
      3715 7742 3722 7730 3727 7725

05