Coastal Flood Statement 5, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS VIRGINIA TODAY SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINS AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH MARGINAL AMBIENT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS HENCE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NECK TO
THE EASTERN SHORE. A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LINGER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES WHERE THE GROUND IS RATHER
SATURATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER
A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DRYER AIR NOW PROGGED TO FILTER N LATE TONITE AS SYSTM BEGINS TO
DRIFT N. WILL KEEP CHC SHWRS/THUNDER GOING THIS EVE...THEN CUT
BACK TO SLGHT CHC SHWRS AFTR MIDNITE AS BEST FORCING/LIFT MOVE N.
PCPN MAY EVEN END ACROSS SRN CNTYS AFTR 06Z. MOS TMPS HAVE BEEN A
FEW DEGREES TO COOL LAKELY...SO WENT ABV GUID FOR LOWS (M50S-
L60S).

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PTRN THU WITH PCPN BCMG MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE
AS SYSTM SLOWLY LIFTS N. HIGHS 75-80. LOWS THU NITE U50S-L60S.

INFLUENCE FROM CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO WANE FRI. STILL ENUF LEFT OVR
MSTR FOR SCT POPS (GREATEST ERN SCTNS DUE TO DEPARTING TROF). HIGHS
M-U70S UNDER PT SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE WET WX. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SE BY
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THIS ALLOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP
AND A RETURN OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO FRONTAL POSITIONS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN HPC WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FRI
AND SAT WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPR 80S BEGINNING ON SUNDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SW SURFACE WINDS (SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE
COAST). LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST FRI AND
SAT MRNGS WILL WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY MON AND TUE MRNGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCTD CNVTN UNTIL THIS EVE (HIEST PROB OVR E/NE SXNS)...OTRW VFR.
PTCHY FG PSBL LT TNGT (TO MVFR). SCTD CNVTV DVLPMNT AGN
THU...THEN APRS TO BE LESS SO ON FRI AS ULVL FLO PRES LIFTS OUT TO
THE NE OF AREA. SCTD CNVTN PSBL AGN SUN/MON...B4 ISLTD DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CNVTN PSBL TUE/WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA'S HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED OVER CHES BAY...AS SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DROPPED TO AOB 15 KTS AND WAVES AOB 3 FT. ON THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS OVER NRN PTNS (N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND)...THOUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS LATER THIS
AM. HOWEVER...SEAS (8-9 PERIOD SWELLS) WILL BE THE BIGGER ISSUE
OVER THE WATERS DESPITE THE DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW...REMAINING
BTWN 5-7 FT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDING FIRST
OVER THE SRN PTNS...I.E. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT...THEN BY MIDNIGHT FRI OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS...AS THE DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE OF THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WRNG IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVANNA RIVER AT PALMYRA DUE TO RUNOFF
FROM THE LCLLY HVY RAINFALL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL EFFECTS (MINOR FLOODING) EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ONCE AGAIN
MOST PRONOUNCED THE FARTHER NORTH UP CHES BAY...INCLUDING
LEWISETTA...SOLOMANS ISLAND...AND ESPECIALLY CAMBRIDGE...AS PER
CURRENT TRENDS AND CBOFS/MDL FCST GUIDANCE. HIGH TIDE AT CAMBRIDGE
WILL OCCUR AT 520 THIS MORNING...AND ARE ALREADY AT 3.7 FT MLLW AS
OF 5 AM (MINOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.5 FT MLLW).

BEYOND THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF CHES BAY NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT...AS THE HIGH
TIDE MAY ONCE AGAIN COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS (HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS AGAIN ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU
HIGH TIDE CYCLE VS. THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE).

OVER THE LOWER BAY/SE VA/NC CSTL SECTIONS...SOME AREAS CAME CLOSE
TO MINOR FLOODING WITH THE PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEWELLS PT
DID IN FACT REACH 4.5 FT AROUND 10 PM LAST EVENING)...HOWEVER
SUBSEQUENT PEAK TIDES...INCLUDING THE HIGHER ONE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THU...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLES AS WE HEAD
OUT OF THE FULL MOON CYCLE. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR EVEN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ015>017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ077.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/AJZ
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...ALB/BKH
MARINE...BKH
HYDROLOGY...BKH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BKH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

MDZ021-181815-
DORCHESTER MD-
152 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER WESTERN DORCHESTER COUNTY...

AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TAYLORS ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MADISON...AND...WOOLFORD AT 200 PM
EDT...LLOYDS AT 215 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3861 7616 3859 7609 3838 7614 3841 7629
      3843 7631 3850 7632 3853 7622 3855 7624
      3853 7628 3856 7628 3857 7632 3859 7628
      3864 7629 3862 7625 3864 7624 3861 7620
      3864 7616

ZIMMERMAN