Winter Storm Warning 17, NWS Juneau, AK

070 
WWAK47 PAJK 112013
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1113 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

AKZ017-112115-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-111212T0600Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1113 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FASTER AND WILL CHANGE SNOW OVER TO RAIN
BY THE EARLY EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-025-112115-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.111212T0300Z-111212T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
1113 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FASTER AND WILL CHANGE SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. 

FOR WHITE PASS...PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION UP
TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ020-021-112115-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.111212T0000Z-111212T0900Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH
1113 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FASTER AND WILL CHANGE SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ026-112115-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0035.111212T0600Z-111212T1200Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
1113 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING FASTER AND WILL CHANGE SNOW OVER TO RAIN
THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ019-120400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0017.111212T0300Z-111212T1200Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1113 AM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY. 

* SNOW...SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 35 MPH NEAR LYNN
  CANAL LATE TONIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL START THIS EVENING AND START TO MIX WITH RAIN
  NEAR HAINES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

463 
WWAK47 PAJK 120336
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
636 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

AKZ019-121200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0017.000000T0000Z-111212T1200Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
636 PM AKST SUN DEC 11 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST
MONDAY FOR THE HAINES HIGHWAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY. 

* SNOW...SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY
  AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 1 TO 3 INCHES NEAR HAINES AND AT LOWER
  ELEVATIONS.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
  LYNN CANAL.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW
  WILL MIX WITH RAIN NEAR HAINES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS ALONG THE HIGHWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

927 
WWAK47 PAJK 121146
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011


AKZ019-121300-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0017.000000T0000Z-111212T1200Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
246 AM AKST MON DEC 12 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

SNOW ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 MORE INCHES EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
540 AM AKST SAT DEC 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET SHORT RANGE PERIOD FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE MOMENT. YESTERDAY'S
SYSTEM IS ON ITS WAY THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AT THE MOMENT
LEAVING THE PANHANDLE UNDER THE REMAINING SHOWERS IT ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE FALLING
AS RAIN. THAT ISN'T THE ONLY CONCERN THROUGH. FOG IS ALSO
CROPPING UP IN SOME PLACES AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING. PETERSBURG HAS ALREADY SEEN QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY EARLIER THIS MORNING AND VARIOUS OTHER OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE RECORDED LESS THEN 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE GULF AND MOVES EAST. SHOWERS WILL ALSO
DECREASE AS THE VORT MAX AND COOL AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING THEM MOVE
OFF TO THE SE TODAY. BY THIS EVENING, MOST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD
BE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT WILL PROMPT TWO THINGS TO HAPPEN ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
DROP DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER
AND IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE TEEN TONIGHT. THE
OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE INNER CHANNEL
AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS NEAR SATURATION FROM ALL THE RECENT
PRECIP. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE NOT MUCH OF A PROBLEM ACROSS THE AREA AT THE MOMENT AS
MOST AREAS HAVE LESS THEN 20 KT WINDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED IS OUT
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WHERE SE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS COMING ACROSS THE GULF.

FORECAST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. DECIDED TO USE THE EC
WITH A BIT OF THE GFS FOR FORECAST UPDATES TODAY AS THEY SEEMED TO
INITIALIZE THE BEST OUT OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING 980 MB LOW LIFTS NNE INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY SUNDAY EVENING AND ONSHORE AND WEAKENING
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY EVENING AND WEAKENS OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT MOVES TO NEAR CAPE DECISION EARLY MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH A FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
GULF. NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON THURSDAY.

PRECI ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT FRONT SPREADS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE SOLID GALES IN COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH
SOLID SMCR SE WINDS FOR REMAINDER OF INNER CHANNELS. DO HAVE SOME
COLD AIR IN PLACE SO EXPECT PRECIP HERE TO BEGIN AS SNOW WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA EXPECT SNOW TO GO TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY SMCR MONDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWS IN WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TURNS THE FLOW
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA OFFSHORE. WILL LIKELY SEE DECREASING CLOUDS
WITH SOME COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE INNER CHANNELS ON WEDNESDAY.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP ON WED WITH HIGH TEMPS STAYING NEAR
FREEZING AND DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S AT NIGHT. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRONG OCCLUSION SPREADS GALES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY WITH FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. AGAIN WILL HAVE SOLID S-SE GALES IN COASTAL
WATERS AND POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL. THIS
FRONT DOES HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM SECTOR SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
WARMING WITH RAIN AS PRIMARY TYPE.

MODELS DIVERGE RATHER EARLY WITH HANDLING OF WAVE LIFTING IN THE
GULF AS EARLY AS MONDAY. EC WAS DEEPEST AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN GFS OR NAM AND WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THROUGH MONDAY.
BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT OR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
SO CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF QUICKLY FOR DAY 5-8 USED HPC GRIDS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051.

&&

EAL/MM