Wind Advisory 44, NWS Juneau, AK

123 
WWAK77 PAJK 040641
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1041 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

AKZ027-041300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.110704T1900Z-110705T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1041 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM AKDT
MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM AKDT MONDAY.

* WIND: SE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 
  40 MPH OR GREATER 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

487 
WWAK77 PAJK 041230
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 AM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

AKZ028-050000-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.110704T2100Z-110705T0600Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
430 AM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 
  40 MPH OR GREATER 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-050000-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.110704T1900Z-110705T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
430 AM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 
  40 MPH OR GREATER 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

617 
WWAK77 PAJK 042231
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
231 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

AKZ027-050300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-110705T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
231 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 7 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-050600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-110705T0600Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
231 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BECKER

514 
WWAK77 PAJK 050244
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

AKZ027-050700-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-110705T0700Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
644 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKDT THIS EVENING.

* WIND: SE GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-050600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-110705T0600Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
644 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SE GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

743 
WWAK77 PAJK 050547
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
947 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011


AKZ027-050700-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-110705T0700Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
947 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ028-050700-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-110705T0600Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
947 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
543 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK LOW STILL PERSISTING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF SENDING MORE RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE. PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE NOT BEEN AS EXTREME OVER THE SOUTH AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY WITH MOST PLACES SHOWING LESS THAN ONE INCH. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF A FRONTAL BAND OR SHORT WAVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
SHOWING LESS THEN 20 KT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE PARTICULARLY
AS THE LOW FINALLY WEAKENS INTO A OPEN WAVE AND IS PUSHED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP PATTERN WILL REMAIN AS VERY WET
OVER THE SOUTH WITH DRYER CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTH TODAY AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW IS STILL FROM THE SW OVER THE SOUTH AND FROM THE
EAST OVER THE NORTH. THIS WILL CHANGE BY TONIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF
THE LOW IS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SWITCH TO SW THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MEAN MORE RAIN
FOR THE NORTH STARTING THIS EVENING AS THE DRYING DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING DIMINISHES AND MOIST AIR IS FORCED TO RISE BY THE
TERRAIN INSTEAD. ALL IN ALL TONIGHT IS LOOKING WET FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT WHERE POPS WILL REMAIN AT
CHANCE AS IT WILL STILL BE UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT OF A PROBLEM AS WELL. AS THE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW ROLLS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING, THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN AND CLARENCE STRAIT WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO
25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH
SOME OF THE N-S CHANNELS MAY HAVE THERE WIND DIRECTION BRIEFLY
TURN NORTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING TROUGH BEFORE
TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING AS IT MOVES PAST.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CRAFT WINDS
TO 25 KT FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL JUST AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD WITH FEW DIFFERENCES NOTED. DECIDED TO
USE THE NAM FOR THE DETAILS THAT IT PROVIDED AND ITS GOOD
INITIALIZATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EJECT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. A LOW DEVELOPING IN
NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO AROUND 990 MB AS IT TURNS
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TUE AND WED. A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. HAVE MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH
GFS AND EC MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH MOVING SECOND COLD
UPPER LOW TO GULF.

EXPECT A COOL AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW
MOVING INTO THE SE GULF ON MONDAY WILL SPREAD SOLID GALES TO
COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR 27-28 AND
POSSIBLE 23 MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE MAX SMCR FOR
CLARENCE ST. HIGHEST QPF WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ZONES TO NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY MON MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
RAIN TUE-WED AS LOW WEAKENS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS THURSDAY AS RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FRONT PUSHES TO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING.

REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK BUT SEEING VARYING
SOLUTIONS AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT UPPER
LOW. BLENDED IN NAM FOR TUE AND A GFS/EC BLEND WED-THU THEN HPC BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-041.

&&

EAL/MM