Wind Advisory 43, NWS Juneau, AK

188 
WWAK77 PAJK 082338
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
338 PM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

AKZ018-090045-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-110609T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
338 PM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

BECKER

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
521 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE FAR ERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE COAST TODAY. UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE ERN GULF TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE ERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN SOME
AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES IN.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. ATTM
THE MOST WIND IS OCCURRING OVER NRN LYNN CANAL WHERE SCA LEVEL
SLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS MID-LEVEL
SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOWER PRESSURES IN THE PAGY AREA AND THUS A
DECENT SLY PRES GRADIENT. ALSO HAVE SOME LOCALIZED 20-25 KT WLY
WINDS IN THE MORE E-W CHANNELS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY
BUT THOSE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WEAKENING. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS.

 AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...FRONT MOVING IN HAS BECOME DECOUPLED
FROM ITS MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...WITH MID-LEVEL PART OF THE FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE INNER CHANNELS WHILE LOWER PART OF THE
FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OFFSHORE. LOWER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP AS THE LOWER PART OF THE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE NO SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER INNER CHANNELS.
STILL...ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING FOR AT LEAST
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS.
DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND WILL SEE THE
PRECIP BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO WINDWARD SIDE OF MTNS. ALSO MAY
SEE IT BECOME MORE DRIZZLY TONIGHT AS MOIST LAYER GETS TRAPPED
UNDER A DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

 OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY PRECIP FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MOST NOTABLE
COOLING OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL AREA. THE FAR SERN AREA MAY SEE
A LITTLE SUN AND WARM UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SCA FOR SEAS OVER THE NWRN
OUTER WATERS AS SWELLS GENERATED BY THE OLD PARENT LOW OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA TODAY.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING FOR LATE THIS WEEK. ANY PRECIP MAY BE
ENHANCED A BIT THURS NIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRYER AS THE RIDGE IN
THE GULF GETS SQUEEZED UP AGAINST THE PANHANDLE BY THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SAT.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD THROUGH SAT BUT THEN STARTS TO FALL
APART BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE HOW THEY
HANDLE A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF NEXT WEEK. THE EC FAVORS A FASTER MOVEMENT BRINGING SW MID
LEVEL FLOW TO THE PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS TUES. THE GFS IS MUCH
SLOWER AND DOES NOT EVEN GET THE FEATURE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GULF BY NEXT THURSDAY.

 DECIDED TO GO FOR A GFS/EC BLEND OUT TO SAT. AFTER THAT POINT
DECIDED TO MAINLY LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT
OF SPREAD STILL PRESENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT THE WEEKEND THAN DROPS TO POOR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

RWT/EAL