Wind Advisory 30, NWS Juneau, AK

381 
WWAK77 PAJK 072335
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

AKZ018-080300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-110308T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
235 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

296 
WWAK77 PAJK 080245
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

AKZ018-080900-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-110308T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
545 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

727 
WWAK77 PAJK 080839
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1139 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

AKZ018-080945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-110308T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1139 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE SKAGWAY AREA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. THE NORTH WINDS 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. 


$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 1025 MB ARCTIC HIGH ABET 200 MI ENE OF PAJN IS
CONG TO GENERATE FLOW OUT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TO THE GULF.
OVERNIGHT AN OCTANT HAS BEEN DESPOT ABET 100 NM SW OF A PASI-PAKT
LN. THE ONLY REMNANT WITH AN IDENTIFIABLE CIRCULATION ON THE GOES
IR IS A WEAK AND DIFFUSE LOW ALOFT OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS.  THE ONLY ZONE 27 SHOULD GET MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM, AND EVEN THAT SHOULD ONLY OCCUR ON THE SW SECTION OF
P.O.W. ISLAND. THE ECMWF AND NAM WERE USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE.

 CHANGES TO THE SHORT RANGE ARE SMALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
WERE LOWERED 3 TO 6 DEGREES FOR INNER CHANNEL STATIONS N OF
FREDERICK SOUND. THE CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 LARGE SCALE CONTEXT: 500H HIGH OVER WRANGELL ISLAND IS TO DRIFT
SE AND BE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY 12Z TUE. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
SLOWLY  S AND BECOMES PART OF A POORLY ORGANIZED OMEGA BLOCK. THE
EAST  SIDE LOW OF THE OMEGA IS A 985 MB ABET 600 NM S OF PAD.

 SMALLER SCALES: GOES IR LOOP DEPICTED A JET STREAK TO THE S OF
THE LOW THAT HAS SUBSEQUENTLY RESULTED IN A SEQUENCE OF TRIPLE
POINT FEATURES TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN
USEFUL FOR MODEL INITIALIZATION AS DISCUSSED BELOW, BUT A
FRONTALLY ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR THE REGION WITHIN 200  NM OF A
PASI-PAKT LN.  A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS WITHIN THIS REGION
AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WEAKENING AS THE OCTANT APPROACHES.
ITS DEMISE WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE FIRST  DISSIPATING FONT THAT IS
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

 MODELS: MORE ABOUT THAT JET STREAK ABOUT 600 NM S OF PAD AT
06Z. THE ECMWF HAD A NICE FIT FOR SPEED MAXIMA. THE MGM AND ECMWF
HAVE HAD USEFUL INITIALIZATIONS FOR THE PRESSURE FIELDS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD INCLUDE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND A STRONG UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE BERING STRAIT.
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE...BUT ARE OFTEN IN ERROR PREDICTING THE DEMISE OF
STRONG BLOCKING HIGHS TOO EARLY. THE UPPER LOW SEEMS TO BE
GETTING PERPETUATED BY REINFORCING SHOTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SPINNING OFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND UNDERCUTTING THE BERING STRAIT HIGH. RESULT IS
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO GRAZE THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. BEFORE THAT TIME...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW
THAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE SPREADING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH THAN
ABOUT FREDERICK SOUND. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SHEAR
APART AS IT TRACK NORTH...SO LIMITED POP VALUES TO LIKELY...AND
THEN ONLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

 THE BIGGEST IMPACT THE TUESDAY FRONT AND THE WEDNESDAY LOW WILL
HAVE ON PANHANDLE WEATHER WILL BE TO ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN UP THE
NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF AND THE
CONTINUING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA. HAVE WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT THIS POINT IN TIME I DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDE SPREAD
ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVEL WINDS OR WIND GUSTS.
DO...HOWEVER...HAVE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND GALES OVER LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER
BAY. OUTFLOW WINDS EAST OF YAKUTAT AND OUT OF CROSS SOUND WILL
RESULT IN GALES FOR COASTAL MARINE ZONES 43 AND 51 OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

 USED VARIOUS PIECES AND PARTS OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-051-052.

&&

JBT/FRITSCH