Wind Advisory 14, NWS Juneau, AK

292 
WWAK77 PAJK 292048
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1148 AM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

AKZ018-300515-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110130T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1148 AM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
  WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN IN THE
  LATE EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

082 
WWAK77 PAJK 300456
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
756 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

AKZ018-301415-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110130T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
756 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HIGHEST WINDS NEAR
  SKAGWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

661 
WWAK77 PAJK 301330
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
430 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

AKZ018-302100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110130T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
430 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
  HIGHEST WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

444 
WWAK77 PAJK 302033
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1133 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

AKZ018-310300-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110131T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1133 AM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HIGHEST WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

955 
WWAK77 PAJK 310040
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

AKZ018-310145-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-110131T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
340 PM AKST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
543 AM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF...AK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF DISSIPATING AS IT
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FORM THE FEATURE BESIDES
SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BLOCK MOST FEATURES KEEPING THEM TO THE EAST,
AS WITH A 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND A 1000 MB LOW OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
REGION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BREAKING UP AND CLOUD MASSES MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF. EXPECT WE WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

 WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY,
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND INTERIOR PASSES. NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY GRADIENT. AS
THIS HAPPENS WILL SEE WINDS OVER EAST WEST ORIENTED CHANNELS AND
INTERIOR PASSES INCREASE. WINDS OVER DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH
DOUGLAS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUR
FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. INVERSION AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW ARE
PRESENT, BUT STILL FAIRLY WEAK. CRITICAL LEVEL IS NOT PRONOUNCED
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT TAKU WINDS AT THIS TIME. THIS
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS OUT OF CHANNELED
TERRAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCES IS ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE BUT WAS NOT PLEASED WITH MODELS TODAY. NAM AS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MOST MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT INITIALIZATION FOR EACH WAS A BIT OFF AND THEY WERE
OT CAPTURING HIGHER WINDS OVER SKAGWAY AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WILL.
DID LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS IT WAS HANDLING PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
THE BEST. OVER ALL CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS WERE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLE THAT WILL STEER JET STREAM
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AFTER A COOL DRY
START SUN-MON EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME WETTER WITH A GENERAL
WARMING THROUGH WEEK. MON LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
THROUGH INNER CHANNELS BUT POPS REMAIN LOW UNTIL MON NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME TEMPS START TO RISES. BY TUE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN ALL AREAS. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK NE AND OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE BUT APPEARS EACH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GALES
IN EASTERN GULF AND MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE PANHANDLE.

DID NOT HAVE A REAL MODEL PREFERENCE AND STAYED WITH EXISTING
GRIDS WHICH RELIED ON HPC GRIDS IN THE LATER PERIODS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

PRB/MM