Storm Warning 97, NWS Juneau, AK

001 
FZAK52 PAJK 261727 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270100-
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 960 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF MONDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-270100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-270100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-270100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
19 BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT LATE. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-270100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 50 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT
BUILDING TO 27 FT LATE. RAIN. SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN...SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-270100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
827 AM AKST MON DEC 26 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. SNOW
LATE. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN...SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY THE REGION IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
GULF. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS FROM ELFIN COVE SOUTH AND INTO KETCHIKAN WHERE GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THOSE
AREAS...REPLACING THE WATCHES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION ASSOC WITH THIS FRONT WILL START OFF AS SNOW EARLY
IN THE MORNING THEN MIX WITH RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH. OUT THE HAINES HIGHWAY
HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WHERE 3 TO
5 INCHES IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF 24 MILE ALONG THE HAINES
HIGHWAY WHICH IS VALID THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ADJUSTED
PRESSURE WITH THE SREF AND WINDS WITH THE GFS AS THEY SHOWED THE
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE FRONT THE BEST...HOWEVER STILL ADJUSTED
THEM UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE MORE PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEAKENING MONDAY STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION AS A SHORT WAVED DEVELOPED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHERN REGIONS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR SNOW FALL IS HAINES
BUT IF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NORTH MAY NOT SEE AMOUNTS EXCEED ADVY
LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE.
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN AK GULF WED, FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INDICATE NEXT SYSTEM THU AND FRI WILL MOVE
JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE BUT LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
YEAR INDICATION OF YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF,
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND WAIT FOR THAT ONE.

MODELS WERE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
WITH BEST MATCH BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. BOTH INITIALIZED WELL
COMPARING SURFACE AND SATELLITE FEATURES. EC WAS STILL A BIT
FASTER MOVING THE WEAKENING LOW NORTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. NAM WAS
AN OUTLIER WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVED MUCH FURTHER EAST. 00Z AND
12Z MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GULF ON WED. 12Z GFS MOVED TO LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH
WHILE THE 00Z/12Z EC MOVED THE LOW OVER THEN CENTRAL PANHANDLE 00Z
WED. THE 18Z GFS RUN KEPT THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH BUT KEPT THE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF THEN MOVED THE LOW TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THURSDAY. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN RATHER POOR LATELY
AND WITH SUCH A LARGE MODEL SPREAD DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GRIDS DAY 3 ONWARD. NEW HPC GRIDS USED
A BLEND OF GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEANS AND WHILE IT DID HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES FELT THERE WOULD BE NO ADDED BENEFIT TO UPDATE THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM BUT DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY BY WED DUE TO MODEL
SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ020-024-026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ022-023-
     027-028.
         STRONG WIND MONDAY MORNING FOR AKZ019-021-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-033>035-041-042-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-032.

&&

HANNON/PRB