Storm Warning 54, NWS Juneau, AK

825 
FZAK67 PAJK 011153
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-020600-
347 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-020600-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
347 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE FUN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
ELONGATED FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF WITH ITS
MID TROPIC MOISTURE CONNECTION. A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE FRONT
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. STRONG WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH STORMS EXPECTED ON THE OUTSIDE
WATERS AND GALES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INSIDE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL
SPREAD TO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BY MY
ESTIMATES. CLARENCE STRAIT AS USUAL WILL BE WINDIER THAN THE REST
DUE TO THE FUNNELING ASPECTS. HAVE BUMPED UP THE WINDS THERE A
FEW MORE KNOTS TO CARRY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR TUESDAY.

EARLIER I EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR COASTAL AREAS TO
INCLUDE ZONE 22 (WESTERN CHICHAGOF)...FOR GUSTS TO 60+ MPH. WILL
JUST GO AHEAD UPGRADE TO WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
REST OF THE AREAS WILL GET STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY.

COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SNOW FALLING AROUND WHITE PASS.
STARTING TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1500 FT FROM 8 PM THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES TO FALL AT THOSE ELEVATIONS... BUT THE GUSTY
WINDS BLOWING UP LYNN CANAL WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO BLOW AND DRIFT
CREATING DRIVING ISSUES FOR ANYONE TRYING TO USE THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY.

THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE MOISTURE MEANS THAT WE CAN EXPECT TO
SEE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM. STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE FAIRLY LOW... AND SNOW LEVELS ARE
NOT THAT HIGH SO RUNOFF WILL BE HAMPERED AS WELL.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL AS TURBULENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING
THE REGION. AS A RESULT WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS VEERING
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS THE FRONT PASSES
IN THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AS WELL. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOC WITH THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON. THESE STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL
ADVECT IN COLD AIR FROM CANADA. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE
AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FEWER CLOUDS WILL ENHANCE THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
RECOVERING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED...DUE TO THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) OUT OF THE
NORTH.

FRIDAY SEES OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE
GULF. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...RAIN ASSOC WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM QUICKLY TURNING PRECIP TO ALL RAIN.
RAIN OCCNLY MIXED WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND AND FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIP SUNDAY AS A RIDGE PASSES OVER BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON LOW PLACEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT THEN COME
TOGETHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. USED MAINLY THE LATEST
GFS TO UPDATE THIS PACKAGE AS IT HAS HAD THE LEAST VARIABILITY
FROM RUN TO RUN. ALL MODELS HAVE HAD THE COLD AIR OUT BREAK FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THEY WANT TO BRING
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS. HAVE LIMITED THIS SLIGHTLY AS GROUND IS
NOT FROZEN YET AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MODERATE THE
CAA SOMEWHAT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ022-023-
     026-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017>021-024-025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT
     TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-052-053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON