Storm Warning 23, NWS Juneau, AK

792 
FZAK52 PAJK 281211
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-010100-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN QUEEN
CHARLOTTES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD
OVER THE YUKON WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-010100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-010100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-010100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-010100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING
TO 9 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-010100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
257 PM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS REMARKABLY UNCHANGED. A
LOW OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES REGIONS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS HOLDING IN PLACE.

 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL, CROSS
SOUND AND OFF OF CROSS SOUND OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND GALE FORCE
NEARLY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE
COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLE... WITH TAKU WINDS IN JUNEAU TO 60 TO 80 MPH AND OVER
60 MPH FROM INTERIOR PASSES SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. DO THINK THAT THERE
WILL A MINOR DECREASE SO WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 23 AND
24...ANGOON AND PORT ALEXANDER SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING.

 NAM AND WRF USED FOR WINDS AND PRESSURES...THOUGH HAD TO GO BACK
AND ADJUST SOME SPEEDS FOR INNER CHANNELS THOUGH TO GET THEM AS
STRONG AS NEEDED.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...COLD AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AK GULF REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. ARCTIC HIGH THE
YUKON WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA MID WEEK. CURRENT LOW
OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WILL FILL SLIGHTLY MID WEEK THEN DRIFT
SOUTH ONLY TO HAVE A SECOND LOW TRACKING UP FROM THE N PACIFIC.
THIS MID WEEK LOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN DAY TO
DAY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.

 MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
DETAILS REGARDING SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH THEN REFORMING IN THE NE PACIFIC AND FINALLY MOVING UP
TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. EC RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCE HAS
STARTED TO BREAK DOWN SOME AS GFS HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER GENERAL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE. SOME ISSUE
WITH HAVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BERING BECOMING CUT OFF.

 ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BLENDED IN SOME NAM12 WINDS
TO DAY 4. HPC TRENDED TOWARDS THE EC BUT WITH ITS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON CHANGES BEYOND DAY 4.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED COLD OUTFLOW. DID
NOT EXTEND CURRENT ADVY / WARNING PRODUCTS AS END TIMES ARE STILL
TO DAY 3, BUT EXPECTING WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SO
EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO
MID WEEK THEN DROPS A BIT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-024.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ017-025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ020>022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ019-029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ021-033>035.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ022.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ032.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-031>036-041-042-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.

&&

BEZENEK/PRB