Storm Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

106 
FZAK52 PAJK 271211
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-280100-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT S AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES TONIGHT. A
STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ041-280100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-280100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-280100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
9 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-280100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-280100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 27 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. E SWELL IN THE MORNING.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST SAT FEB 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING
LOW MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION STRETCHES SOUTHWARD AND DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS DIXON ENTRANCE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WITH COLDER AIR ENTRAINMENT
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
PANHANDLE COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FROM SITKA
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS WITH DECREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND NORTH CENTRAL
OUTSIDE WATERS. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH...GALE
FORCE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS...WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS CLARENCE STRAIT. SMALL
CRAFT NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING MOVING FARTHER SOUTH AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE YUKON
AND NORTHWESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE NAM TO MAINTAIN MAXIMUM CONSISTENCY. AS
THE TROUGH DIMINISHING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THINNING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS...EXCEPT
HYDER WHERE LIKELY SNOW POP THIS EVENING DECREASING TO CHANCE POP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS WILL BECOME PREVAIL NEAR INTERIOR PASSES OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST OF YAKUTAT...HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIGGING SOUTH
FROM CANADIAN SIDE...PUSHING COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE
WITH INCREASING OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND CENTRAL OUTSIDE COASTAL
WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING
COASTAL WATERS. FOR TAKU WIND SCENARIO...HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY AND BROUGHT UP THE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING EARLIER
TONIGHT. STRONG TAKU EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. ALSO ADDED SITKA AND HYDER ZONES INTO THE
WIND ADVISORY GROUP. STRONG OUTFLOW WILL ALSO BRING VERY COLD WIND
CHILL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SKAGWAY ZONE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM...BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF ALASKA
AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LASTS INTO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
BEFORE THERE IS ENOUGH CHANGES TO MOVE THE HIGH FROM AN OMEGA TO A
CUTOFF HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN. FROM MID
WEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK THE QUASI STATIONARY LOW WEST
SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL PERSIST TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODEL RUNS TRYING TO SHOW A LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
MOVING NORTH AND CURVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL FEATURE
A FEW TROUGHS AND WEAK FRONTS THAT WILL TRY TO LIFT SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THU
INTO THE WEEK. NOT SURE ON THE AMOUNTS BUT THINK LIGHT FROM THIS.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE HIGH GRADIENTS FROM THE YAKUTAT AREA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS FROM BAYS AND PASSES AND DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN WAVES OF VALUES
OF UP TO 70 KT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND WITH THE WINDS MEAN
SOME HIGHLIGHTS FOR WIND CHILLS.. AND WITH FRESH LOOSE SNOW THE
WINDS COULD MEAN BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

I USED NAM TO ADD SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE PRESSURE FIELD...
BUT MADE FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO WIND FIELDS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THEY
LOOKED GOOD OTHER THAN A FEW DIRECTIONAL ISSUES THAT WERE
MODIFIED. THERE WERE SOME MODIFICATIONS BASED ON THE HPC GUIDANCE
BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT WAS ALTERED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ021-022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR
     AKZ023.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ019-020.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>033-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ034-035-052.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK