Storm Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

040 
FZAK52 PAJK 312046 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-010100-
923 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON
NIGHT. A STRONG WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK N
MOVING OVER SE AK MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. 

$$

PKZ041-010100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1145 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-010100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
923 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-010100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
923 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-010100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1145 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-010100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1145 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 AM AKST MON JAN 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR US THROUGH
TUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER YAKUTAT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS TROUGH
ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO CLEAR SKIES AS CLOUD COVER INCREASED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AN HELP PUSH A LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTH WESTERN AK GULF. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
TRACK OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH EARLY TUE.
THIS WARM AND WET AIR MASS WITH BRING AMPLE QPF VALUES SO
EXPECTING SOME HIGH LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COAST. COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE COLD AIR REMAIN IN
PLACE DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING ALL TO RAIN. FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD EXPECTING A
RAIN SNOW MIX THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. COASTAL
AREAS WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COAST LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL LAST A BIT LONGER WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET SO WHILE QPF
VALUES ARE HIGH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...HAINES AND SKAGWAY IN PARTICULAR THE
COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE LONGER WITH SNOW LASTING OVER
NIGHT WITH TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR BOTH ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUES STARTING THIS EVENING
AND LASTING THROUGH TUE MORNING. HOWEVER SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND HOW FAST WARMER AIR MOVES IN...AS
USUAL WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OPEN.

THE NEXT ISSUE WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS.
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND CROSS SOUND WILL HAVE GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. INSIDE CHANNELS WILL SEE UPPER
LEVEL SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR COASTAL
ZONES, AKZ27, AKZ22 AND AKZ23 EXPECTING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS NEARING 35 MPH. 850 MB WINDS JUST NEAR 50 KTS SO DO NOT
EXPECT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THIS FRONT TO MIX DOWN AS MORE STABLE
AIR MOVES IN. BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE AND NEED TO
BE WATCHED. WILL ALSO SEE A SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH TUE MORNING.

MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES. THE EC INITIALIZED WELL AND IDENTIFIED A SMALLER VORT
LOBE OFF THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. UPDATED GRIDS WITH
THE 00Z EC WHICH RESULTED IN MINOR CHANGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE HIGH DEPENDENCE ON TIMING OF
INCOMING AIR MASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM...A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
TO EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A JET STREAM RETURNING TO THE
EASTERN GULF. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT N OUT OF CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEK FOR WET...WARMER AND
WINDIER WEATHER.

BY TUESDAY MORNING FIRST WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH ALL RAIN. IN THE
HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS EXPECT SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE
MORNING. GALE FORCE SE WINDS IN COASTAL WATERS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY BUT PROBABLY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SECOND
WAVE. COASTAL ZONES EXPECTED TO BE WINDY AND WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL BUT HAVE LIMITED GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR NOW. ALSO NOTED PAYA-
PAJN AND PAJN-PAKT GRADIENTS ARE PROGGED OVER 10 MBS SO WILL ALSO
NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THERE
IS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THINKING PRECIP
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE GULF.

HAVE ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY
AND EXPECT WINDS TO RISE BACK TO GALES. SEAS BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH A SOUTH SWELL PUSHING SEAS INTO THE 15 TO 20 FOOT RANGE. THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE NE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INDICATION ON NEW RUNS THAT RIDGE WILL REBUILD A BIT TO THE
WEST NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE DAYS 7-8 AND
STARTED TO TREND TEMPS A BIT LOWER.

STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WET AND WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO CAT THROUGH DAY 3 AND KEPT
LIKELY DAYS 4-5. USED AVAILABLE HPC GRIDS FOR LATER PERIODS OR AN
EC/GFS BLEND WHERE NECESSARY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM AKST
     TUESDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036.

&&

PRB/MM