Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

572 
FZAK52 PAJK 231826 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SEND A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT TO THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL FOLLOW MON NIGHT.
 

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING
TO 14 FT LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
MORNING. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
924 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FEET BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
119 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A WEAKENING
LOW PASSING ACROSS YAKUTAT BAY WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING. ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS AND CROSS
SOUND WITH STORM FORCE WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL. TIGHT SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS MAINTAINED ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
SKAGWAY AREA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING
AND ADDED ELFIN COVE INTO ITS RACE. ROUGH 10 TO 15 FEET SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS. SNOW FELL ACROSS YAKUTAT AND
NORTHERN MOST PANHANDLE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING...ALL CHANGED TO RAIN BY MID MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARED UP TO NEAR 40. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S FOR THE MOST
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTION.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAD CAUSED WATER LEVEL OF LOCAL RIVERS
INCREASED TO AROUND ACTION STAGE. MONTANA CREEK RIVER GAGE AT
MENDENHALL LOOP BRIDGE REPORTED 14.09 FT AT 9 AM. COORDINATED WITH
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER AND NOTIFIED IT WAS CLOSE TO THE ACTION
STAGE OF 14.5 FT. THE WATER LEVEL INCREASED TO 14.42 FT BY 9:30 AM
THEN WENT UP TO 14.75 FT THROUGH 10 AM. BY THIS TIME...THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA AND RAIN
TAPERING OFF. A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST WENT OFF
THE ROAD TO CHECK THE CONDITIONS UP TO THE SHOOTING RANGE IN
MONTANA CREEK AND REPORTED THE WATER LEVEL WAS CLOSE TO BANKFULL
AND WATER WAS FLOWING CLOSE TO THE HOUSES ALONG THE ROAD NEAR THE
SHOOTING RANGE. AT 11 AM...THE RIVER GAGE REPORTED 14.76 FT...0.01
INCREASE OVER ONE HOUR...AND IT WAS BELIEVED AS A PEAK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATING
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING. REFRESHED THE INHERITED GRIDS
WITH THE NAM FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THEN POPS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND PANHANDLE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE FOR
ENTIRE OFFSHORE AND OUTSIDE WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR
MOSTLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS.

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE COMING
WEEK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. ALONG WITH THIS
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE -4 C FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE LONG RANGE...THE FIRST BEING HOW STRONG
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY WILL BE. ATTM...HAVE WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE
OUTER COAST WITH WIND ADVY GUSTS FROM SITKA SOUTHWARD TO
KETCHIKAN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DETERMINE IF WINDS WILL BE HIGHER. THE
SECOND FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL OR PINEAPPLE
CONNECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 12Z OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE OVERALL PATTERN WELL...BUT ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THROUGH THURSDAY. PREFERRED THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION FOR DAYS 2 TO 4
AS IT HAD THE MOST SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE COMMUNITY ON THE
SPEED OF A GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY
EVENING. AFTERWARD PREFERRED THE HPC SOLUTION AS THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z AND 00Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PERSISTENT AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS COULD GIVE THE PANHANDLE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN INNER CHANNELS. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE YUKON AND THIS WILL HELP BUILD A
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM CROSS SOUND NORTHWARD TO SKAGWAY. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION COULD SEE ADVY LEVEL
GUSTS AND SO THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS WILL SEE GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST. RAIN WILL AGAIN SPREAD INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR YAKUTAT WITH THE BETTER MID
LEVEL PVA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON TUESDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ADVECTS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF INCREASING
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 850 MB LLJ WINDS WILL BE NEAR 65
KNOTS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ADVY LEVEL GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR
HYDABURG.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER DIXON
ENTRANCE AND A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ALL THE WAY FROM HAWAII.
ATTM...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL BUT COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING A 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE. 12Z MODELS ARE
NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
LATE NEXT WEEK BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A RAIN FREE
DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN
TIMING INDIVIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DIFFICULT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
5 DAYS WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-022.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-036.

&&

AHN/PSS